Trending: Bernie Sanders Wins WIU's Historically Accurate Mock Election

[kenn3d]

The Road to the White House starts at Western Illinois University

WIU recently held their traditional mock election. It is an incredibly intricate and organized event starting with primary and caucuses and finishing up with a mock general election.

Dr. Rick Hardy and Dr. John Hemingway have been leading Mock Presidential Elections since 1975. During that time, students who have participated in these mock elections have chosen the winning party with 100% accuracy and have an astonishing record in selecting presidential winners.

On the Democratic side for the Primaries Sanders won by close to a 2 to 1 margin over challenger Hillary Clinton. Martin O’Malley finished the primary with about 1/18 of Bernie’s take of the delegates. See chart below.

http://bernie-sanders.leadstories.com/079022-bernie-sanders-wins-wius-historically-accurate-mock-election---the-bern-report.html

[onehandle]

1. LOL at the wins in the South.

Maybe 25 years ago. Not today.

[FreakinDJ]

39. Like Hommer Simpson - "Damm their 100% accuracy"

[PatrynXX]

41. talking Bernie not Barack here

O_O

[onehandle]

42. talking Any Democrat here

O>O

[Fred Sanders]

52. Alabamistan and Texasantigayistan for Sanders...even Bernie must have bust a gut!

[sufrommich]

2. I see nothing "historically acurate" in their past polls. In 2012

they voted to replace Biden with Clinton in the General and the winning ticket was Obama/Clinton.I'd like to see some proof of their accuracy.

[TexasTowelie]

8. The trend is that they predicted Obama winning the 2008 and 2012 elections.

Of course Obama's home is Illinois so he was highly favored in the mock election and everybody was already tired of Bush. It also isn't a stretch to believe that a sitting president would be reelected. Calling two elections correctly does not equal historically accurate.

[sufrommich]

12. The Bern Report makes the claim that they've been acurate

since 1975,I see no proof of that at all.They also "predicted" that Jill Stein of the Green Party would come in a "close second place" in the General in 2012.

[JTFrog]

56. But they have an awesome promo video called "The Road to the White House Starts.. with Jeb Bush"

http://wiumpe.com/multimedia/promo/

[longship]

3. I don't think ANY Dem wins all those states

ID, UT, WY, NE, KS, OK, MS, IN, KY, TN, SC, GA???????

That's gotta be called delusional.

[ISUGRADIA]

4. Exactly

Especially while losing Iowa, Illinois, Nevada, and Maryland

[ISUGRADIA]

5. A link to their actual results would help

Their own press really say they have only been doing this since 2007.

http://www.wiu.edu/news/newsrelease.php?release_id=12256

[NuclearDem]

6. I'm sorry, in what reality do Maryland, Hawaii, and Illinois go Republican

and Georgia, Mississippi, Idaho, and Oklahoma go Democratic?

[99Forever]

7. Polls only count when they say Hillary wins.

Cuz, it's HER gawddamn turn, DAMMIT.

So this can't possibly be right.

[NuclearDem]

9. "Polls" showing a Democrat winning Oklahoma and Mississippi

are absolutely laughable.

But hey, if you want to live in your own reality, don't let us stop you.

[99Forever]

10. Thanks for making my point.

Again.

[NuclearDem]

11. Sorry, but no Democrat, incumbent party or otherwise

has any chance of flipping the reddest of red states.

Throwing a hissyfit won't change that.

[Robbins]

14. the state results are puzzling

the national results are the ones to look at.they have called it national results right in past with obama winning in 2007 and obama beating romney in 2011.

[99Forever]

15. That's it, double down.

You're on a roll.

[NuclearDem]

17. Double down on what? On a Democrat not winning Oklahoma and Mississippi?

Or on my characterization of your reaction?

Because they're both pretty accurate.

[99Forever]

19. I care fuckall what you think of me.

[Godhumor]

25. It isn't a poll; it is a mock election

They're very different animals.

[99Forever]

31. ...

Bwahahaha.

Good one, bro.

[skepticscott]

53. A mock election with results based on what

if not polls?

Sheesh.

[Godhumor]

61. No, that is incorrect

Really incorrect. What do you think a mock election is?

[skepticscott]

62. It's where you try to project the outcome of an actual election some time in the future

based on what a minute percentage of the actual voters supposedly will do in that election, this assessment being made well before the actual, meaningful campaign even begins.

If you'd like to explain how that's significantly different than a poll, feel free.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. That is precisely how things will play out

That is precisely how things will play out, in an alternate reality.

[stevenleser]

16. I think the Sanders campaign has been punked. No way he or any Democrat loses IL and wins MS and OK

The Sanders campaign or whoever runs bernie-sanders.leadstories.com has been punked.

[NuclearDem]

18. The source is actually The Bern Report.

Same guys who posted the "winning all 50 states" nonsense.

[sufrommich]

20. Is The Bern Report part of the official campaign?

I really don't know.

[NuclearDem]

21. I think it's just run by supporters.

[stevenleser]

22. Whoever it is has no ability to evaluate data and make rational decisions.

I'm surprised they figured out how to post on a website.

[sufrommich]

24. I agree.I've seen them report some very

questionable "news".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Hasn't Hawaii and Iowa went blue in every election 1988...

Hasn't Hawaii and Iowa went blue in every election 1988 and hasn't Utah went red in every election since 1964?

[ISUGRADIA]

28. Iowa except in 2004

Bush won Iowa in 2004 by a couple thousand votes it was very close.

Utah's been one of the most Republican states for years it always comes up as the first, second or third most republican state for a presidential candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Good catch...

There are a lot more anomalies like Mississippi which has went red in every election since 1964 with the exception of 1976.

[ISUGRADIA]

32. Thanks

It may be a nice exercise for college students, but the results bear absolutely no resemblance to political reality.

No Democrat is going to win losing Hawaii and then winning in Utah.

And as you say there are the anomalies, many other states that would never, ever go that way in an election

[sufrommich]

33. Carter was the only democratic nominee to sweep

the southern states since Roosevelt if I remember correctly. He did better than fellow southerners Johnson and Clinton.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Ford won VA./nt

[sufrommich]

35. Damn,I was close. I still think he has the modern day

record for a democratic win in the south.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. The ironic thing is the same monolithic south he won in 76 he lost in 80, sans his home state

EOm

[Lazy Daisy]

51. Straight from the horses mouth

http://www.wiu.edu/news/newsrelease.php?release_id=12957

And you'll note, they predicted President Obama over Hillary even though Hillary was the front runner.
Pundits said he couldn't win the primary, never mind the WH..... sounds familiar.

And yes Bernie is not Obama, the excitement around his candidacy is different. But the excitement is still there.
Besides, Hillary is still Hillary.

[sabrina 1]

23. Once people know who he is, they want him for president!

[Thinkingabout]

27. WIU will not result in a WIN for Sanders.

[RoccoR5955]

29. This is what I believe Clinton supporters fail to see

The issue about the primary is to nominate someone who can beat the opposition. Where many conservatives simply hate Clinton, they are more willing to vote for Sanders for the simple fact that he has been consistent in his views, has worked for his views, has not lied about things, and talks straight about issues. Conservatives may not agree with Bernie's platform, but they sure love the way that he conducts himself, and they are more likely to vote for him than someone whose opinions have "evolved" or just plain flipped over time.
I see this all the time in the conservatives that I talk to every day. One even has a Bernie bumper sticker on his car.

[Ed Suspicious]

36. And many liberals strongly dislike Clinton on some level. The entirety of the right hates here,

a significant portion of the left dislikes her, and a massive swath of independents are apathetic/dislike her. I ask her supporters, where is she strong enough where it counts that will cause her to win the general?

Nobody really dislikes Bernie (except for a few hyper-partisans) and many people adore him.

[Fuddnik]

44. My wife voted Republican all her life until she met me 20 years ago.

She's very liberal on social issues, but was always anti-abortion, and voted on that one issue.

She's gotten stronger and stronger on Democratic candidates. We watched the forum together the other night, and she loves Bernie. She says "How can you not love that guy"? She also sees through Clinton's phoniness a mile away.

[Historic NY]

40. They don't call it mock for nothing....

[CanonRay]

43. Western Illinois is my Alma Mater!

Class of '73

[The River]

50. I Was There Too

from 59 - 61.

I dropped by Macomb 2 years ago during a cross country move. The town is dying.
There are big box stores on the east side of town that have killed off all the business's
around the town square. Nothing left but a few bars and tattoo parlors.

[CanonRay]

64. A sad story

repeated way too often in this country. The square used to be very nice. Typical of a town with a growth at any price mentality.

[zalinda]

45. The link to the actual web site

Here is the WIU mock election web site. It's not a great site, but you can get the idea of how they did it. Look at the schedule link first and see how they chose the candidates.

http://wiumpe.com/

Z

[Half-Century Man]

46. Question: Are the results in the graphic used, the predicted outcome of just the vote for President?

Because people here seem to be under the impression that the states are going flip loyalties in unexpected manners.

Is this simply the graphic representation of how the population is predicted to vote displayed percentage wise?

It is a graphic that questions expectations to say the least.

[99th_Monkey]

47. K&R nt

[tritsofme]

48. When real polls don't break your way...it must be reassuring to find nonsense

like this...

[Ed Suspicious]

57. Well, it's kind of fun. You might not understand, inevitable frontrunner.

[MohRokTah]

49. This has my vote for most idiotic political article of 2015

The STUPID...

It Berns.

[lovuian]

54. Not surprised at all

thanks

[kenn3d]

55. more information on the mock election

History of the Mock Presidential Election: This simulation always takes place the year before the presidential election year, and three months before the actual Iowa caucuses. The genesis of this mock presidential election began at the University of Iowa in 1975 with two political science doctoral students, John Hemingway and Rick Hardy. In that year, students selected Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford—long before anyone really knew of Jimmy Carter. In the years that followed, Rick Hardy expanded the format and engaged thousands of students at the University of Missouri-Columbia where students registered a perfect record of selecting the subsequent winning presidential party. In 2007 and 2011, Hardy and Hemingway teamed up again to conduct a massive campus-wide simulation at Western Illinois University. In 2007, Western students selected Barack Obama as president at a time when no one thought he could win! And, in 2011, students narrowly re-elected President Obama over the GOP ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan! How’s that for reality!

For more information on the mock election click HERE

[stevenleser]

59. Predicting a Democratic win over Ford in 1976 after Nixon's resignation was not rocket science

There are lots of other problems.

#1 - Jeb Bush as the presumptive Republican nominee and general election opponent for any Democrat at this point looks like an obvious loser. Jeb is very unpopular with the GOP base and may very well drop out in the next few weeks.

#2 - Has the university controlled the sample for age bias and/or typical turnout stats?

#3 - Utah? Mississippi to the Dem nominee and Illinois for the 'Pug? No way.

Most of the elections from 1976 and beyond were not difficult to predict. Factor in the fact that we are talking about boolean predictions with only two possible results and saying you picked the winner is not a big deal.

[Live and Learn]

58. K&R nt

[cosmicone]

60. I thought he was winning all 50 states !!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251650529

[Rosa Luxemburg]

63. why did Maryland go red?

[Gothmog]

65. The idiots who did this mock election do not understand the rules for awarding Delegates

Under the rules for the Democratic Party, delegates are awarded proportionately. This silly but ignorant poll has Sanders winning 100% of the delegates in most states



The only way that a candidate can win 100% of the delegates in a state is if no other candidate gets 15% either in a district or statewide. The idiots who did this mock election do not understand the rules of the Democratic Primary