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LonePirate

(13,431 posts)
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 10:45 AM Nov 2015

How does Bernie overcome the challenge of Super Tuesday?

Let me preface my question with the statement that I intend to vote for Bernie when my state votes in March and my support is unwavering. That being said, how does Bernie overcome the huge deficit he faces on Super Tuesday where he trails by 20-50 points in many of those states?

Is he hoping that voters will start paying attention to the race once 2016 arrives? Is he depending on the debates to increase public awareness of his candidacy? Is he expecting wins in IA and NH to generate a massive headwind to help close the gap in those states? Is there another strategy at play here?

16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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How does Bernie overcome the challenge of Super Tuesday? (Original Post) LonePirate Nov 2015 OP
Those corporate owned polls are skewed firebrand80 Nov 2015 #1
... Agschmid Nov 2015 #5
LOL.... Historic NY Nov 2015 #15
He doesn't. onehandle Nov 2015 #2
The short and blunt answer: With the race as it is, he can't Godhumor Nov 2015 #3
Maybe Bill will escape from his cage John Poet Nov 2015 #9
He must win NH or IA to continue on. Agschmid Nov 2015 #4
I'm pretty sure he won't. MineralMan Nov 2015 #6
I think he doesn't concede until he is mathematically eliminated Godhumor Nov 2015 #7
That's possible, I suppose, but Sanders is also a practical, MineralMan Nov 2015 #8
It would be unfair for Bernie to quit John Poet Nov 2015 #10
That will be his decision to make. MineralMan Nov 2015 #12
Yeah, we'll see. He is practical Godhumor Nov 2015 #11
A lot of factors will go into any decision. MineralMan Nov 2015 #13
The Bernie Sanders campaign ending press conference will happen on March 2 at 10 Eastern alcibiades_mystery Nov 2015 #14
I don't know how likely this plan is, but here's how I would approach it mythology Nov 2015 #16

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
3. The short and blunt answer: With the race as it is, he can't
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 10:56 AM
Nov 2015

And the suggestions you make aren't enough to move the needle. At this point, his best hope is an implosion from HRC.

 

John Poet

(2,510 posts)
9. Maybe Bill will escape from his cage
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 11:06 AM
Nov 2015

and do what he does best....

It's never out of the realm of the possible.

MineralMan

(146,333 posts)
6. I'm pretty sure he won't.
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 10:58 AM
Nov 2015

I've been watching the Super Tuesday states closely, and I see no way for Sanders to win in any of the vast majority of them, really. That's why I think March 2, 2016 will be the day Bernie tosses in the towel and endorses Hillary Clinton.

I could be wrong, but I doubt it very much.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
7. I think he doesn't concede until he is mathematically eliminated
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 11:04 AM
Nov 2015

The longer he campaigns the more time his message gets. If he knows he is going to lose, he is going to want to use all the time he can get.

MineralMan

(146,333 posts)
8. That's possible, I suppose, but Sanders is also a practical,
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 11:06 AM
Nov 2015

no-nonsense person. I think he will decide that it is unfair to his volunteers and donors to continue at that point. We'll see, of course.

 

John Poet

(2,510 posts)
10. It would be unfair for Bernie to quit
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 11:09 AM
Nov 2015

before his supporters have had their chance to vote for him.

I'll support him continuing all the way to California in June,
whether the nomination has been mathematically decided or not!

The message is bigger than the man.

MineralMan

(146,333 posts)
12. That will be his decision to make.
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 11:33 AM
Nov 2015

I'm sure he'll take everything into consideration before deciding anything.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
11. Yeah, we'll see. He is practical
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 11:09 AM
Nov 2015

I think it will largely depend on how long he feels he can contest without damaging the Democratic chances in the GE.

MineralMan

(146,333 posts)
13. A lot of factors will go into any decision.
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 11:35 AM
Nov 2015

His own well-being and endurance could play a role, too. I'd think it would be very difficult to continue active campaigning if a person knew it was a futile effort. That would certainly drag me down, and I'm a few years younger than Bernie.

I'm sure he will carefully weight all of them in his decision-making.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
14. The Bernie Sanders campaign ending press conference will happen on March 2 at 10 Eastern
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 11:59 AM
Nov 2015

He will have lost even Vermont the previous evening.

 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
16. I don't know how likely this plan is, but here's how I would approach it
Thu Nov 5, 2015, 12:29 PM
Nov 2015

Try to drive his supporter turn out in Iowa to keep the loss to a minimum (recent polling in the state doesn't make winning it look feasible) and then win New Hampshire. I think a win in New Hampshire would help provide a boost by making him look viable.

Then shift heavily to Nevada as he's much closer there than in South Carolina. Either a win or a narrower than expected loss will boost his numbers. As a caucus state, he has a chance with high enthusiasm to close ground there.

For Super Tuesday I would aim for states like Colorado, Virginia and Minnesota. At this point it's unlikely Sanders can capture enough of the black vote in the primary to make a difference in the southern states like Georgia and Alabama where blacks make up a significant portion of the Democratic primary. If possible trying to get a Warren endorsement would likely help in Massachusetts.

I don't know if it's viable to win the nomination, but I think it's his best approach given the numbers as they are.

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