2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHow does Bernie overcome the challenge of Super Tuesday?
Let me preface my question with the statement that I intend to vote for Bernie when my state votes in March and my support is unwavering. That being said, how does Bernie overcome the huge deficit he faces on Super Tuesday where he trails by 20-50 points in many of those states?
Is he hoping that voters will start paying attention to the race once 2016 arrives? Is he depending on the debates to increase public awareness of his candidacy? Is he expecting wins in IA and NH to generate a massive headwind to help close the gap in those states? Is there another strategy at play here?
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Bernie is up by 20-50
Can we stop with the un skewing?
Historic NY
(37,453 posts)Perhaps online voting is more accurate then.????????????
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Super Tuesday is the end.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)And the suggestions you make aren't enough to move the needle. At this point, his best hope is an implosion from HRC.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)and do what he does best....
It's never out of the realm of the possible.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)MineralMan
(146,333 posts)I've been watching the Super Tuesday states closely, and I see no way for Sanders to win in any of the vast majority of them, really. That's why I think March 2, 2016 will be the day Bernie tosses in the towel and endorses Hillary Clinton.
I could be wrong, but I doubt it very much.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)The longer he campaigns the more time his message gets. If he knows he is going to lose, he is going to want to use all the time he can get.
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)no-nonsense person. I think he will decide that it is unfair to his volunteers and donors to continue at that point. We'll see, of course.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)before his supporters have had their chance to vote for him.
I'll support him continuing all the way to California in June,
whether the nomination has been mathematically decided or not!
The message is bigger than the man.
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)I'm sure he'll take everything into consideration before deciding anything.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I think it will largely depend on how long he feels he can contest without damaging the Democratic chances in the GE.
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)His own well-being and endurance could play a role, too. I'd think it would be very difficult to continue active campaigning if a person knew it was a futile effort. That would certainly drag me down, and I'm a few years younger than Bernie.
I'm sure he will carefully weight all of them in his decision-making.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)He will have lost even Vermont the previous evening.
mythology
(9,527 posts)Try to drive his supporter turn out in Iowa to keep the loss to a minimum (recent polling in the state doesn't make winning it look feasible) and then win New Hampshire. I think a win in New Hampshire would help provide a boost by making him look viable.
Then shift heavily to Nevada as he's much closer there than in South Carolina. Either a win or a narrower than expected loss will boost his numbers. As a caucus state, he has a chance with high enthusiasm to close ground there.
For Super Tuesday I would aim for states like Colorado, Virginia and Minnesota. At this point it's unlikely Sanders can capture enough of the black vote in the primary to make a difference in the southern states like Georgia and Alabama where blacks make up a significant portion of the Democratic primary. If possible trying to get a Warren endorsement would likely help in Massachusetts.
I don't know if it's viable to win the nomination, but I think it's his best approach given the numbers as they are.