2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLet's play "What's wrong with this analysis..." article by Charlie Cook
http://nationaljournal.com/columns/cook-report/the-cook-report-the-presidential-race-shouldn-t-be-close-20120823THE COOK REPORT
It Shouldnt Be Close
But it is, and thats partly due to Mitt Romneys own personality and some missteps by his campaign.
"Just about any analysis of the 2012 presidential election should start with words to the effect that this is a very close race, that close races can go either way, and that many different factorsconvention speeches, debates, verbal miscues, overseas conflictscan change the trajectory of such a race. A decision by Israel to attack Iran, for example, would certainly scramble things.
Still, this race shouldnt be as tight as it is. Whether one looks at polling measurements of whether voters think the country is headed in the right direction, at consumer confidence, or at key economic measurements such as growth in gross domestic product, deviations in the unemployment rate, or the change in real personal disposable income, it is puzzling, to say the least, why polls show President Obama and Mitt Romney running neck and neck. Incumbents generally dont get reelected with numbers like we are seeing today.
Most everyone knows that the economy was in horrific shape, and worsening by the day, when Obama took office. But by the time a president is running for a second term, he pretty much owns the economy. Theres also some history here: Although economists can argue the merits of Obamas 2009 stimulus package, the polling data show that the American people pretty much thought it was ineffective, if not a waste of money. Obama then turned his attention to a carbon cap-and-trade bill that passed the House but was dropped in the Senate amid opposition from states that produce fossil fuels.
Next came health care reformobviously a very contentious topic. Lets just hope that the thousands of pages of memos from Democratic pollsters arguing that the issue was a political winner were recycled so that there will be some benefit from that huge loss of trees. Basically, a year was lost on the Affordable Care Act before Obama could shift his focus back to the economy. By then, stimulus had become a four-letter word, and any further action to boost growth had to come from the Federal Reserve Board rather than Congress or the president."
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Some very odd conclusions/estimates/reasoning in this article - posted to stimulate discussion.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)We have no way of knowing if it will be close by then
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)That's what some of these 'analysts' are missing. This will NOT be like other elections. This was not simply a case of 'oh, the economy sucked so the incumbent got bounced." Americans have become more in tune (the non fox news watchers) and understand that the President didn't just inherit a bad situation, he inherited the worse crisis since the Depression. A recession + a complete failure of the housing industry. And they can see that things are improving.
Cook is wrong, though. The consumer confidence is up again. Homes are selling.. companies have been hiring. We will not get back those jobs Bain sent to China, but we're have other industries thriving now. People are spending. If anyone thinks that going back to Bush's policies is the solution, they're idiots. That's how we got here.
So even if Romney wasn't the stupidest fucking candidate on Earth, it would still be this close.
CitizenPatriot
(3,783 posts)but let's start with the Republican leaning national journal and the Republican narratives taken as a given.
My favorite was this, "Although economists can argue the merits of Obamas 2009 stimulus package, the polling data show that the American people pretty much thought it was ineffective, if not a waste of money."
Really? The American people think that? If they do, they only think that because Republicans have been saying it ad nauseam.
Re the economy, perhaps if Republicans like Ryan who grabbed stimulus money for their districts and Romney whose companies used it, weren't lying about it things would be different. And maybe if Republicans had passed one single jobs bill, things would be different.
Maybe if Republicans single goal to defeat Obama had not dictated that they ruin our economy in order to regain power in 2012, things would be different.
Why isn't the writer putting responsibility on congress for the economy? What have Republicans done regarding the economy? Name one jobs bill they authored and passed. Oh, that's right, they spent the last two years shoving an ultra sound up women. No time for the economy.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,446 posts)Great response!
southernyankeebelle
(11,304 posts)going on. I pray Obama wins.