Two new polls this afternoon - Georgia and Florida:

[George II]

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary Bay News 9/News 13:

Clinton 66, Sanders 24, Biden, O'Malley 3, Webb, Chafee Clinton +42

Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA:

Clinton 73, Sanders 16, O'Malley 4 Clinton +57


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[sufrommich]

1. Georgia...holy cow!

She's running away with it down there.

[Sheepshank]

6. I was about to say the same thing...Holy cow Georgia n/t

[Liberal_in_LA]

36. ...

[YOHABLO]

60. I will tell you why, she has the African American vote!

Bernie down here is more or less unknown.

[MineralMan]

2. Florida delivers 246 delegates to the Democratic

National Convention. Clinton leads there by 57 percentage points! That's more than all four February states combined, and Sanders might win one of them - NH.

How can anyone look at polls like this one and continue to insist that Bernie Sanders will be the nominee with a straight face.

Georgia has 112 delegates. Texas, which will also be heavily in Clinton's camp, has 252 delegates.

Reality is reality.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/

[upaloopa]

5. All you need to do is read the OP's here about any

person or position to the right of Bernie. They have painted themselves in a corner.
The Democratic party has much more diverse opinions than Bernie supporters have. People are not going to join a group that despises them. Bernie's campaign is full if negative energy. It gives off vibes that say our way or nothing, No compromising. That is what the tea party does.
It just doesn't inspire people. The negativity on this board alone is generating it's own bad Karma.

[blackspade]

87. That is some classic projection given the vitriol over at the Clinton side site.

[upaloopa]

92. Nothing like what is posted here

[blackspade]

93. That's like, your opinion, man.

[workinclasszero]

74. Math is hard

When Bernie is on the losing end of it.

[Cosmic Kitten]

3. Florida poll is a crap salad sample

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2015/11/3/florida_decides_poll_2016_election.html#2

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode: respondents reachable on their home telephone (69% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried Florida (the state was "blue&quot in both 2008 and 2012.

Talk about an unreliable poll.
BWAHAHAHAHA

[MineralMan]

7. Very graphic. I never order the crap salad when I dine out.

I have been known to order a "garbage" pizza, though.

In fact, this poll looks fairly well designed and did reach people on mobile devices.

[Cosmic Kitten]

10. Fairly well designed... lulz

I hope no one pays you for
polling services

[MineralMan]

19. They don't. I'm not in that business.

That's not what I do.

[Adrahil]

22. While you're fake laughing...

Are there any polls showing Bernie leading Florida? Even close?

No? OK.

[Cosmic Kitten]

25. Polls are for changing perception not predicting outcomes

[Adrahil]

27. You keep telling yourself that, Dick Morris. nt

[George II]

38. Sanders supporters don't say that in the few polls where he's ahead.

[NanceGreggs]

46. But, but, but ...

... those polls are dead-on accurate. It's just the ones showing Hill in the lead that are completely wrong.

And the further ahead she is, the more inaccurate the poll.

Get it now?

[George II]

72. Yes, got it. Thanks for that major dose of "reality"...........

[CheshireDog]

30. Cosmic kitten...

How many poll threads will you post on attacking the polls as unreliable or skewed?

Apparently you think every poll is wrong. We get it.

[Cosmic Kitten]

91. I don't think you do "get it"

We need to be discussing the ISSUES.

This poll cheer leading is a big
distraction, or worse, a smokescreen
to hide the fact that a candidate
is on the wrong side of the public interest.

Cheering polls is juvenile, but enjoyable.
And makes as much sense as yelling
at your teevee during a football game.

Polling is a BUSINESS.
Political races spend hundreds
of millions on polling, why?

Two reasons:
1. To know how best pander to demographics
2. To persuade voters and create the bandwagon effect.

It's a sad joke and it needs to be
confronted, not embraced.

Now if you understand what I'm saying
you might start to "get it"

[George II]

108. There has been a lot of discussion about the issues by both candidates. The difference has been...

...that Clinton presents solutions to the problems of the country, Sanders just says "we have to fix that".

[George II]

112. It's only wrong NOW, with Sanders plummeting and Clinton soaring. Back in May and June, even..

...into July they were accurate.

[Godhumor]

8. Why is a blended sample a crap salad?

Would love to know, since you seem to have the science of polling figured out.

[DCBob]

11. She has no idea.. just throwing shit on the wall...

as usual.

[Cosmic Kitten]

13. Throwing crap on the wall is pretending polls predict outcomes

[MrWendel]

80. Or that Black people have no free will or can think for themselves.

[Cosmic Kitten]

83. You trollin me bro?

[sufrommich]

16. +1. nt.

[George II]

40. And none of it sticks.

[Cosmic Kitten]

12. What is a *blended* sample?

And why are the percentages
of those reached by phone
versus mobile nearly identical
in Florida and Georgia?

Who (what demographic)
responds to "recorded voice" interviews?

Not playing unless you can at least
demonstrate fundamental grasp
of polling and stats.

[Godhumor]

15. I'm sure you've seen my background here, as I talk about it frequently

I am a statistical analyst. I post primers on polling, aggregation, sample bias, etc all the time.

Now I have the bona fides, feel free to search my history, and I want to know what makes you think this sample is crap. You feel strongly about it, as you posted about it in two separate posts complete with emojis. So, you've made the claim. Can you back it up?

[Cosmic Kitten]

18. What is a *blended sample*?

And why use a blended sample
rather than haphazard or random?

[Godhumor]

32. Sure. A blended sample means that responses come from more than one source type

In this case automated phone calls to home lines and surveys to mobile devices. The sample is then "blended" by including the responses from each type into one aggregation. The sample can still be and should be random

And blended sampling does carry risk that single source sampling does not. Pollsters have to establish how each type of information is weighted when putting together the complete sample. In this case an automated phone call and survey, neither of which are my favorite sources, are a good match. Both sources are removed from talking to a real person, which diminishes inherent and subtle answering ques for each question.

[Cosmic Kitten]

33. IOW, unrelaible and no benchmarks

Hence, crap salad sample

[Godhumor]

34. No, that is not what it means at all

Have absolutely no idea how you reach that conclusion.

[Cosmic Kitten]

43. Blended sampls are unreliable, uncontrolable and heavily biased in weighting

Its about as much witch doctoring
a survey can withstand without being
unquestionably invalid.

What are the benchmarks?
How much weight is given to
a phone survey vs a mobile response?

What is the refusal rates for each?

Where are the crosstabs for phone vs mobile?

[Godhumor]

58. You're making some incorrect assumptions on how blended samples work

The weightings are dependent on the population parameters. The caution in a blended sample is around how to identify the parts of the population that use which method. In other words, something like would weighing more of the mobile survey overcount the youth demographic for the population? That is what I mean about weights of response type. Blended samples generally do not include crosstabs by response type, outside of the % who responded in each manner, because it is considered one sample.

The survey and automated voice would "ask" the same questions so neither version would be deemed witch doctoring.

And, out of curiosity, what would refusal rate mean to you? If, theoretically, I said respondents finished the survey 10% of the time over the phone and 20% on mobile devices, how would you interpret that in terms of the validity of the poll?

[Cosmic Kitten]

63. Weighting is a polling bias

In other words, something like would weighing more of the mobile survey overcount the youth demographic for the population?

That is the witch doctoring I mentioned.
Those supposed population parameters
are best guesses based on past guesses.

This type of sampling is unreliable for many reasons
and the weighting is high falutin' guesses or worse

As to refusal rates...

phone refusal rates are roughly 90%
Mobile rates may be the same
or vastly smaller.
If vastly smaller, are they being
over weighted or under weighted?
What are the benchmarks?

What reliable predictive results
could be drawn from such shaky design?

Are you really making the case that
blended samples of 2000 people can
determine the pulse of several million people?

[Godhumor]

67. Establishing population parameters is at the heart of scientific polling

And when done properly, a sample can absolutely predict a population's movement within an acceptable margin of error.

By the way, the blended sample in this case corrects for underrepresentation of under 50 respondents by introducing the mobile aspect. It doesn't look like it helped Sanders all that much.

[Cosmic Kitten]

73. Yes, generally landlines are elderly and wealthy people.

The relative weighting is at issue.

And when done properly, a sample can absolutely predict a population's movement within an acceptable margin of error.

And who and how is it determined
if the parameters are correct?

Can you link to any agencies that provide
their parameters for public review?
Or is it "proprietary"?

Sausage making is a messy business, eh?

[Godhumor]

79. Let's back up. Do you know what population parameters are and how they're used?

Honestly asking, because it will change my answer if I need to start with the whats instead of the whys.

And it will be awhile before I answer, as an FYI. Time to spend time with my young'un.

[Cosmic Kitten]

86. K, dinner/family time out

[George II]

111. And poor people who can't afford cell phones or smart phones.

[1StrongBlackMan]

69. LOL ...

that exchange is about what I would expect if I were to try and convince Stephen Hawking that I know something about Physics.

You are a patient soul.

[Godhumor]

85. If there is an actual interest in learning, I don't mind doing it

If it is instead an exercise to disruptive scientific polling, I will cut it off. I think I will know shortly which way the conversation will go.

[MineralMan]

21. I've responded to recorded voice interviews.

I actually answer polling calls and sit there patiently to answer all of the questions.

[George II]

41. Maybe because the overall results are nearly identical?

[Cosmic Kitten]

44. And that seems statistically probable?

[upaloopa]

9. Hillary's campaign is building a ground game in every

primary state and it shows.

[Cosmic Kitten]

14. A ground game with elderly women?

Because the majority is with Bernie.

Bernie's ground game is YUGE!!!!!

[sufrommich]

17. "A ground game with elderly women"

What the fuck??

[Cosmic Kitten]

20. Nice language

[sufrommich]

26. Your nasty post deserved nothing less. nt

[Cosmic Kitten]

29. Why so judgemental about who deserves what...too personal for me

Camp Weathervane
is making this too personal.

Try this mantra:
"I am not my candidate"

[upaloopa]

37. Why do you think that stuff will attract more support

for Betnie?
It is a turn off!

[Cosmic Kitten]

39. CAlling people names will help Hillary?

MAybe you should go check out
the Clinton Cave to see how
her supporters are winning support

[upaloopa]

54. We are winning

I can do smilies too

[Cosmic Kitten]

56. *Winning* for Hillary is... not tripping over her own record or lies

This is my fav emoji spread:


I learned if from a Hillary supporter

[upaloopa]

61. That one is getting a little time worn

it's being used when there is nothing funny so it's losing it's impact.

[Cosmic Kitten]

78. Lather Rinse Repeat

[OilemFirchen]

88. Crap Haiku.

Try this:

Camp Weathervane is
making this too personal
try "I am not my"

[Cosmic Kitten]

89. Vers Libre: Freedom, Baby

[Agschmid]

24. Oh I think it's become pretty clear just exactly "what the fuck" that is.

[Cosmic Kitten]

48. Not a mind reader, spell it out

[Agschmid]

51. Sorry I don't take the bait. Better luck next time.

[Cosmic Kitten]

53. Yet here you are in the fray?

[Agschmid]

57. Yup I'm here, just not going to take the bait.

[oasis]

35. A last gasp dig from those who see the end is near.

Expect more of this, leading up to, and after the concession speech.

[Cha]

97. LOL.. now you've gone an offended the one who said "A ground game with elderly women"!! Have

you no shame?!!

ROFL.. they have no talent for self reflection.

[George II]

47. "Yuge"? Sounds like Donald Trump.

[Cosmic Kitten]

49. Is it spelled *lite weight* or *light weight*?

[George II]

75. It's spelled "N O M I N E E"

[Cosmic Kitten]

77. U F U N N A Y

[RandySF]

64. Yes, it's a rule on DU

Every poll in which Hillary leads is a crap poll. But internet polls that have Bernie winning all 50 states are valid.

[Cosmic Kitten]

66. And every Hillary supporter became such because ...

of how horrible the Bernie supporters behave


BTW: sad straw man

[Cha]

98. "bernie winning in all 50 states.."?!!! WTF.. who believe such propaganda?!

[George II]

70. Professional pollsters know what they're doing....

[Cosmic Kitten]

76. Yeah, keeping the money rolling in hand over fist.

Do you have ANY clue as to how it's done?

MAybe you just trust the teevee news talkers?

[Cha]

99. Didn't the rebel bernie hire one?

[George II]

107. I think he or someone working for him might have, that's how they came up with him winning 50 states

[Cha]

113. Oh.. that sounds like flying unicorns.

[yeoman6987]

81. Goodness. We can still give to 20 points and Hillary would still be running away with it

So much for your crap sandwich.

[riversedge]

82. SurveyUSA gets an A rating from

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

[Cosmic Kitten]

4. Oh look, the Georgia Poll is also crap salad

http://www.11alive.com/story/news/politics/2015/11/02/exclusive-poll-georgia-wants-trump-president/74819370/

Poll details: 2,075 adults from the state of Georgia were interviewed 10/15/15 through 10/26/15.
This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

[Adrahil]

23. You sound EXACTLY like the Republicans poo-pooing the polls in 2012.

You'll have exactly the same results. You are a victim of outcome-based thinking.

[Cosmic Kitten]

31. You can hardly avoid making this personal?

Now you are judging others
as "just like republicans"



Keep calm and Clinton on

[Cha]

100. Oh you mean the one where romney didn't make a concession speech bc he thought he was going

to win?!

The one where they all lived in their double insulated Bubble!? Until it popped on election night?

And, President Obama was re-elected?

[mcar]

28. Go Florida!

Not often I get good news about my state.

[fbc]

42. Clinton winning the red states... big surprise.

And yes, Florida will be a red state if Hillary Clinton wins the nomination.

[sufrommich]

45. Did you think democratic primaries were only held in

blue states?

[Cosmic Kitten]

50. She's not *winning* anything.

It's just bogus polling
designed to create an illusion

[Cali_Democrat]

62. All the polls are bogus?

Bernie is ahead in all 50 states?

[Cosmic Kitten]

65. Bogus? Who knows, but they are not predictive of outcome.

Not trying to have it both ways.

People need to understand polling is
largely a self-serving industry
with a vested interest in satisfying
whoever is paying for the results.

Would you hire a polling agency
that couldn't find you any positive results?

Yeah, me neither.

[CheshireDog]

95. If I understand correctly:

You believe:

1. All polls are completely unable to predict anything

2. Hillary has paid every pollster in America to show her winning

3. Bernie is actually secretly winning

[Cha]

101. Or something lol

[George II]

68. Yeah.

[lunamagica]

52. When Sanders attracts Republicans it's wonderful, and cause for celebration

But the mere thought that Hillary could attract Republicans gets reactions like yours.

Double standard much?

[Cosmic Kitten]

55. Hillary is NOT attracting republicans

She's coasting on name recognition
in low information voter states.

[George II]

110. If she did the Sanders fans would be complaining she's too far right.

She just can't win, until we get to Philadelphia in July and November against whomever.

[Cha]

102. I love it how they have to get on a Thread that shows Hillary gaining so much traction and spout

nonsense!

[lunamagica]

104. They are BURNING, cha. just pure anger and desperation at the realization that

Sanders won't be the nominee...they are just lashing out...

[Cha]

105. Yes "lashing".. Too bad.. we have an election to win in 2016 and we need the best

candidate.. who is Hillary Clinton!

A Major Labor Union Just Endorsed Hillary Clinton Over Bernie Sanders

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/machinists-union-endorses-hillary-clinton_55ce33d5e4b07addcb42e9a9

Machinists Union Endorses Hillary Clinton for President

http://www.goiam.org/index.php/news/press-releases/14828-machinists-union-endorses-hillary-clinton-for-president

International Longshoremen's Association latest labor union to endorse Hillary Clinton

http://www.startribune.com/longshoremen-latest-labor-group-endorsing-clinton-candidacy/339120121/

International Union of Painters and Allied Trades Endorses Hillary Clinton for President

http://www.iupat.org/wp/hrcendorse/

Teachers Union Backs Clinton for President

The National Education Association follows the American Federation of Teachers in endorsing the Democratic front-runner.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/10/03/powerful-nea-teachers-union-endorses-hillary-clinton-for-president



Hillary Clinton Gets Backing of Major Union of Government Workers

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/23/hillary-clinton-gets-backing-of-major-union-of-government-workers/

lunamagica~ did I leave anyone out so far?

[lunamagica]

106. Oh, but we know union endorsements don't matter. Or polls. It's all about Facebok, baby, Facebook!

[Cha]

114. Nah, I saw a post that said corporations were for Hill and unions were for BS.. so I'm going

with that. LOL

[RandySF]

59. Kick

[workinclasszero]

71. BOOM! X2!

Go Hillary!

[blackspade]

84. Not surprising in two conservative states.

It will tighten, it always does.

[Orrex]

90. I need. a Sanders supporter to tell me why this is great for Sanders

Clearly these polls are flawed, since they favor Clinton.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

94. Have these polls been unskewed yet?

EOM

[William769]

96. Kick & highly recommended!

[McCamy Taylor]

103. K&R

[workinclasszero]

109. Its all over but the cryin

for Bernie fans.

[madville]

115. With super delegates

With the bulk of the super delegates and her probably winning Florida, Georgia, Texas, and California it's not looking good for Bernie.