Shock Poll-Hillary Clinton Clinton climbs into the lead in New Hampshire -HRC 48% (+12) SBS 45% (+2)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

West Long Branch, NJ – Hillary Clinton has taken a slim 3 point lead over Bernie Sanders in
New Hampshire, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll of Granite State voters likely to
participate in February’s Democratic primary. Sanders retains his sizable advantage among registered
independents and new voters, men, and younger voters. However, Clinton has made significant gains in
the past two months with registered Democrats, women, and older voters.
Currently, Clinton holds a 48% to 45% lead over Bernie Sanders in the 2016 cycle’s first primary.
This reverses the lead Sanders held in Monmouth’s September poll. He led Clinton by 43% to 36% when
Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, and Jim Webb were included in the poll, and by an even larger 49% to 41%
margin when the supporters of those three candidates were reallocated to their second choices. Support
for Martin O’Malley (3%) in the current poll is basically unchanged from two months ago.


http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/ab385337-2d62-493e-b695-f4350bd8f4d1.pdf

[sufrommich]

1. .......

[workinclasszero]

2. Yay Hillary!!!

[msrizzo]

3. This ain't over yet....

But I like the way this is looking for Hillary.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The trend is our friend.

New Hampshire is Bernie's Leningrad, Waterloo, Gettysburg!!!

[SidDithers]

4. Well, this is awkward...nt

Sid

[JaneyVee]

68. Lulz

[Starry Messenger]

6. I guess that $2 million ad buy of Bernie's really worked.

For Hillary!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Maybe the pollster who he said he would never hire gave him bad advice.

eom

[MADem]

27. Maybe all that shouting is starting to wear thin...?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. He does seem to only have one speed.

EOM

[workinclasszero]

8. Awaiting the shockwave on that 2 million dollar Bernie ad

[NorthCarolina]

9. Except that it won't be released to air on the TeeVee until this Thursday 11/5/15 eom

[workinclasszero]

11. I've seen it

What are they waiting for?

By the time Bernie's campaign gets it stuff together, it will be too late.

Darn.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. They didn't move me. Did they move you?

EOM

[workinclasszero]

16. Yawn...

Nope.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Made me drowsy as well...

No oomph...

[workinclasszero]

29. Right

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. The ad would be better if it had less of the candidate it, just sayin.

I would have showed him in action with a voiceover.

[Fred Sanders]

33. The one sentence spoken by the candidate in the $2 million ad buy was so generic as to be

meangingless....really, who wrote and scripted and edited and eventually approved and paid for that thing?

Feeling the burn of 2 million dollars wasted, but that the Iowa and NH media thank Bernie for.

Some may soon be calling the campaign cash being spent so early and ineffectively as "Burnie" but that would be too cruel.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. If I was a cynic I would say his handlers just want to spend his money and winning is secondary.

EOM

[Fred Sanders]

36. I am not a Presidential nominee media campaign chair, but whoever is that chair may be wanting to

check out the Help Wantd ads.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. I made my bones in selling ad space, albeit print.

Somebody is enjoying those fifteen percent commissions.

[NorthCarolina]

17. On the web

or in a segment on CNN or Fox or something because it hasn't been publicly aired by the campaign yet, and won't be until Thursday.

[workinclasszero]

18. I don't get the delay

Unless its a money issue, TV time is horrendously expensive they say.

[Blue_Adept]

20. You realize that most primetime programming is bought up early?

There are massive ad buys/blocks done in advance. It's not like they just blanket the airwaves with it or push a button and it gets done. It has to be purchased through the network and for various shows and slots. It takes time to do it and to do it in a way that maximizes the reach as best as possible.

[workinclasszero]

22. Oh ok

Makes sense thanks.

[Fred Sanders]

40. And the closer to air day it gets the more expensive the airtime, like airline tickets.

[NorthCarolina]

21. True, it is expensive and he doesn't have Wall St. graft $$

to pay for it like our other candidate does. I don't think it's the cost though. Everything must have a starting point, this ad will start on Thursday.

[workinclasszero]

24. Minus the wall st propaganda.....

Thanks for the info.

[NorthCarolina]

26. It's not really

propaganda. If a politician accepts millions from Wall St. you don't believe they are beholden to their demands? Seems a bit of a naive assumption to me.

[Rose Siding]

45. Warren got contributions from Wall Street law firms

I don't think it necessarily influences and elected official.

[Fred Sanders]

37. I am not a Sanders media campaign chair but I would seriously consider going to Ad Plan "B" for the

purchased 2 million dollar newspaper airtime and space, because the campaign does not have cash to Bern.


Seriously, Sanders voters would do their top ticket candidate a serious favor if he were convinced to take a serious look at ad-to-air plan B before Thursday.

[MADem]

38. In all seriousness this is a fair point you are making.

I think they would have done better to not delay the rollout, and to start buying a few late-night cable slots now. They might have been hoping on more news coverage, but that's optimistic. A newsworthy ad is lucky to get a day in the media hopper--and he did get that. I saw the ad (or fair portions of it) run three times on three separate news programs.

The effectiveness of the ad will depend on how heavily he rotates it, and, of course, placement. If he doesn't get a couple of points out of it, I will be shocked. Kasich came from the sewer to the big kid's table on the strength of a not-very-good ad...but at least he was 'out there' when no one else in the GOP field was bothering to reach out to voters.

The other issue he might have to address--and his handlers will need to push him to do it--is his "grip and grin" problem. It is a problem, no matter how much some people try to pretend otherwise. He doesn't do the glad-handing the crowd thing, he will stop for a very quick selfie and move on, but he doesn't do that 'Stop-LISTEN-respond' thing, and if the answer is too complicated, have a staffer get the person's name and follow up with a letter. Tip O'Neill --a master of retail politics--was taught that lesson by a neighbor who loved him but didn't vote for him-- "People like to be ASKED" --Tip hadn't asked, and he never made that mistake again. All of that chatting and handshaking invests a voter in the candidate, and that voter can, by personal anecdote and enthusiasm, invest other voters in the candidate too.

He does not do that stuff, he has no patience for people's concerns unless they dovetail with his specific areas of interest. NYT did an article on how he fails the schmooze test (and of course his supporters focused on the cheeky headline about how he doesn't "kiss babies" and went on and on about germs, etc. when that wasn't the point at all). He never has been a touchy-feely guy, he's about as warm as Nixon in terms of personality and he has no patience for people who maybe aren't as serious or as smart as he is. It is a weakness.

[SunSeeker]

41. His "Real Change" theme is an obvious dig at Obama and won't play well with AA voters. nt

[BlueCaliDem]

10. It's slim, but the trend is looking good for Hillary Clinton.

If this trend keeps up and her poll numbers in Iowa remain unchanged or grows, I don't see Sanders winning either State.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. The quicker the general campaign begins the better.

EOM

[BlueCaliDem]

15. I hear ya, DSB!

And it will get a helluva lot quieter around here then.

[MineralMan]

14. I couldn't predict the numbers for that poll.

NH is too confusing for me. It's a statistical tie, though. Still, Clinton got a substantial bump. We'll have to see how things go from here, I guess. But NH is clearly not solidly in Bernie's camp, it seems.

[still_one]

32. Your assessment is right on

[DCBob]

19. Excellent!

I was expecting even better than this but I will take it. Cheers!

[JaneyVee]

23. K AND R! MORE DEBATES!

[Amimnoch]

30. Nooooooooo, don't take the only state he was leading in!!!

Hopefully he'll still be able to take Vermont.. Poor thing.. Bless his heart.

[cannabis_flower]

60. It has a margin of error

Of 4.9%

[Amimnoch]

65. That's the ticket. Hang in there!

[cannabis_flower]

66. Yep, remember this..

[frylock]

69. But Sanders isn't Obama blahblahblah..

Lather, rinse, repeat.

[cannabis_flower]

71. No but..

It just goes to that it is too early to tell. This new poll also showed that less than 1/3 of the voters have decided and that another 35% had decided but weren't firmly committed to their choice. Hillary supporters are trying to make it seem like Hillary's got it all sewn up and there isn't any hope of any other candidate and it just isn't true.

[frylock]

72. It's as true today as it was in 2008..

people relying on polls conducted over land lines and weighting toward 50+ year-old voters will be in for a shock when the votes start getting tabulated.

[Gothmog]

34. These are strong polling numbers for Clinton

[brooklynite]

42. Not a "shock": Clinton ahead in 4 of last 7 NH polls

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Good point!!!

EOM

[magical thyme]

51. and where she leads it's within the moe.

except CBS/yougov Sanders 54 CLinton 39; Bloomberg Sanders 41, CLInton 36; Franklin Pierce Sanders 38, CLInton 30; Gravis Sander 33, CLinton 30.

And where she leads, it's within the moe.

[moobu2]

43. Boom!

[Vinca]

46. I'm going to have to start answering the phone.

Pollsters call about twice a day and I always ignore them.

[Rose Siding]

48. I wish they'd call me.

Just once, ever. I'd love to tell them who I support

[workinclasszero]

55. Haha

Me too.

Never been polled in my life LOL

[Rose Siding]

47. Could still fluctuate but a sweep would be sweet

[Robbins]

57. yeah great for republicans,centrists,and corporists

The rest not so much.

[magical thyme]

49. I'm sure it had nothing to do with Biden, Webb and Chafee dropping out

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. Precisely, all their votes went to Clinton...

EOM

[LexVegas]

50. I am the opposite of shocked. nt

[George II]

52. It's a flawed poll - they didn't consider the tea leaves segment of the electorate.

[Historic NY]

53. ..

[shenmue]

62. Haaaaa

[Robbins]

56. get used to hearing the words president Trump

Don't say I didn't warn people.

[Cali_Democrat]

67. Are you sure you're commenting on the correct article?

[litlbilly]

58. None of these polls include enough millenials, so they are basically bunk imo

[shenmue]

63. People that age don't tend to vote

The older a person is, the more likely he or she is to vote.

[frylock]

70. Yep, heard the same thing in 2008.

[Amimnoch]

81. You keep on holding onto that dear.

I'm sure it helps make things feel better.

[frylock]

82. I'll look to recent history while you look to polls conducted over land lines..

weighting toward the 50+ year-old demo.

[RandySF]

77. What is the correct portion of the NH electorate?

[cannabis_flower]

59. It has a margin of error

Of + or - 4.9%. Which basically means they are tied. They are still see-sawing back and forth in this race.

[EndElectoral]

61. She's gained based on two things - 1) Embracing Bernie's policies, and 2) GOP Benghazi coverage

She's essentially the same person before that and I compliment her on embracing being the victim of GOP idiotic questioning, and also of pretending to embrace Bernie's policies. She's a smart candidate, but her record shows where she stands overall in terms of foreign interventionism, banking and finance, insurance, welfare, trade. For her to say "I'm a liberal" at the debate was a concensus that she cannot get the primary nomination without giving lip service to the progressives in the party.

What is disturbing is the political pandering to the left may well have temporarily worked with some who now feel reassured that the hawkish foreign policies she has advocated and leans toward have somehow been silenced.

[shenmue]

64. People like her

You can't stand that.

[EndElectoral]

74. It's moot whether I like her. In this latest favorabilty poll, apparently most don't like her.

Which doesn't bode well for the general.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

[Bernblu]

73. This poll is worthless!

It's a poll of usual (whatever that means) Democratic primary voters while voters will be voting in a caucus and not a primary. A caucus attracts fewer voters who are very committed to their candidate. The poll also does not poll new voters or voters who are not usual primary voters but-are committed to voting in the caucus. I think Clinton may be leading but not by the margin in this poll. I would wait for the next Des Moines poll before crowing.

[DCBob]

80. You are confused... NH is a primary, not a caucus.

[William769]

75. Kick & highly recommended!

[RandySF]

76. Kick

[postatomic]

78. Kickmeister

Great news.

[riversedge]

79. Nov 3 New Hamsphire Monmouth--> Clinton 48, Sanders 45

Whow. Just saw this a few minutes ago elsewhere.


Nov 3 New Hampshire Monmouth--> Clinton 48, Sanders 45

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-narrowly-pulls-ahead-sanders-new-hampshire-n456511


Nov 3 2015, 12:19 pm ET
Clinton Narrowly Pulls Ahead of Sanders in New Hampshire

by Alex Seitz-Wald

2:23

Reversing the trend of the late summer, Hillary Clinton seems to have pulled narrowly ahead of Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire as voters have returned to her camp in the key state where Sanders had been leading for months, according to a new Monmouth University poll.

Clinton now edges Sanders 48% to 45% in the first-in-the-nation primary state, benefiting from a smaller field and increased support from women and others.

Sanders led Clinton consistently from the beginning of August through the beginning of October, but more recent polls has painted a mixed picture and suggested a virtually tied race after Clinton's strong performance in the first Democratic presidential debate and after Vice President Joe Biden decided against a presidential run.

In September's Monmouth poll, Sanders led Clinton 43% to 36% when Biden and lesser candidates Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb were included. And he led by an even larger margin of 49% to 41% when those three candidates were removed, suggesting the dynamic of the two-way race itself has changed.

Sanders' support among key voting blocs -- including younger voters, registered independents and new voters, and men -- seems to have remained largely flat. The change seems to have come from registered Democrats, older voters and women rallying to Clinton.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

83. Has it been unskewed yet?

eom

[Agschmid]

84. No.

Well "yes" but not successfully.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

85. Thank God.

EOM