Predictive markets are showing increased confidence that a Democrat will be in the WH

[Godhumor]

As of 9:30 est

Chance at nomination:

HRC - 90%
BS - 10%
MOM - 0%

Party to control the White House
Dem - 58%
Republican - 42%

Now, there is a separate investment track for selecting which individual will be president, so total percentages can be different than the Party question.

Who will be President:

HRC - 55% (better chance than the rest of the field combined)
Rubio - 15%
BS - 7%
Trump - 7%
Bush - 4%
Carson - 3%

If you aggregate individual percentages by party, Democrats have 62% total to the Republicans 38% (Sorry MOM supporters, he is at 0%).

Remember, General Election polling is useless before the races are even decided, especially when one party has an undisputed and well known frontrunner and the other party does not. GE polling will not be an accurate indicator until the race is set. This is why the market gives Carson only a 10% chance of securing the nomination and a 3% chance at the presidency. Predictive investors tend to not respond to flash in the pan popularity.

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

[exboyfil]

1. I noticed this morning that Rubio

was the Predictwise leader for GOP nomination (43%). Bush is now sitting at 9%. Unless something changes the dynamics I think Rubio is going to get the nomination. Rubio and "insert woman Republican governor" will be the ticket.

[Godhumor]

2. Rubio is the RNC's last hope

With Walker out and Bush floundering, Rubio is the last of the Republican Big 3 that can be taken seriously. Think the Republican establishment is sweating bullets that Rubio screws this up and they end up having to rally behind a tire fire like Trump or Carson.

[Cha]

3. I hope so! Wait a minute.. is that carson down below bush?! some threads around here have

him winning over Hillary!

[Godhumor]

4. That is why I prefer predictive markets over GE polling at this point in the election

GE polling is pretty meaningless at this point when people are greatly influenced by the unknown (See Carson or even Biden when speculation was that he would run.), and generally the unknown is more appealing than the known (Clinton). As the race settles the unknowns start disappearing and a better picture of the campaign emerges. GE polling right now is nothing more than conversation fodder.

Predictive investors, on the other, appear to be more in line with the "people will never elect..." line of thinking. Even with months of frontrunner status, Trump is at half the odds of Rubio of gaining the nomination. Investors just don't buy his campaign.