Bernie Sanders is in big trouble: You don’t have to be a neoliberal shill to see the cold, hard fact

[RandySF]

All of this highlights what was always going to be one of Sanders’s biggest weaknesses in seeking the nomination. Though he has always caucused with Democrats in both the House and Senate during his career, Sanders had always officially been an independent. He even rejected the Democratic Party’s endorsement during two of his campaigns for his Senate seat. Presidential candidates like to claim they are Washington outsiders. Sanders is a party outsider.

In short, Sanders does not have the base of support within the party that Hillary Clinton has been building up since her husband was a popular governor in Arkansas thirty years ago. Were he running as a Republican, that would not matter. The Republican Party is fragmented and fractious, with no real power center. The invisible primary once was a part of its nomination process, but no longer. As proof, FiveThirtyEight has Jeb Bush with the largest number of endorsements from GOP leaders (36, compared to Clinton’s official 385), and his campaign has been taking on water faster than the Lusitania while Donald Trump and Ben Carson sit atop all the polls.

As best I can tell, Sanders and his campaign have been counting on generating enthusiasm, particularly among the 18-29 year-old demographic from which he draws the majority of his support, to carry him through. There is nothing wrong with that if it is part of a larger strategy. The problem is that this seems to be Sanders’s strategy for everything. (He has said at least twice that as president, he will push legislation through Congress by threatening Republican leaders with being voted out of office by an army of youths. This will not exactly strike fear in the hearts of Republicans from safely gerrymandered districts.)

In other words, the Sanders strategy is great for setting opening weekend box office records for the next Avengers movie, but not for beating out Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination. It would be one thing if he had a spectacular ground game in the states a la Barack Obama in 2008, but he doesn’t seem to have that either.

Please feel free to use the comments section to call me a corporatist, warmongering neoliberal shill, but this is the reality. And it would be the reality for anyone running against Hillary Clinton in 2016, regardless of political message.

http://www.salon.com/2015/10/28/bernie_sanders_is_in_big_trouble_you_dont_have_to_be_a_neoliberal_shill_to_see_the_cold_hard_facts/

[daleanime]

1. Sorry, but even if I agree with any of that it doesn't change what I have to do....

which is work to improve our country and elect an honest president. And I even more sure that that isn't Hillary then I was 4 months ago.

[deutsey]

33. Same here.

I will vote for Sanders if he's on my state's primary ballot. If he isn't, I will probably write him in. It will be the first time in my life that I will have voted for a presidential candidate whose politics are in line with mine (and I've been voting since 1984).

As I always say, I will vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election, but I'll probably be holding my nose as usual.

[840high]

54. I'm with you all the way.

[Live and Learn]

88. +1 nt

[gwheezie]

2. I agree with you

It has nothing to do with liking Bernie. He has not built the infrastructure in the dem party to beat Hillary. He doesn't have the networking and personal relationship within the party. The people who get the elections done. It's just not there.
I know his supporters mock endorsements from dem politicians but these politicians have connections down to the precinct level to cajole and pester people for support.
I'm not saying Bernie can't win but he doesn't have decades of relationships witj dem pols, sure he votes with dems but he hasn't worked within the party to get dems elected.

[jfern]

3. He campaigned for Obama in NH

And he was one of only 6 founders of what is now the largest Democratic caucus with 69 members, the Progressive Caucus.

[gwheezie]

6. He doesn't have the support of dem pols

It is what it is, if enough of his supporters vote for him he will win. I'm talking about the traditional dem pols that control the states and local structure who do the daily grind of getting the dem voters to vote.

[bec]

18. Yes you are correct

The Clinton Machine had been around for a very long time and they are cashing in favors with the establishment. Most of Bernie supporters are not being polled,

[VanillaRhapsody]

52. And are shoo ins to show up on election day to boot

[gwheezie]

91. I don't think all of them will wind up voting

I'm not saying its impossible but I doubt he will be nominated either. He doesn't have the support from democrats.

[VanillaRhapsody]

92. hardly any really

[Adrahil]

73. Ah yes... The "they are not being polled" ploy.

It's possible, i suppose... But we're not talking a a couple percentage points right now. We're talking about a 25-30 point lead. In some caes, clinton is doubling Sanders' numbers. Never say never, and all that, but if Bernie wins, it will be because people change their mind, not becuase there is some vast resevoir of untapped Bernie supporters that never show up in the polls.

[jfern]

93. Both co-chairs of the Progressive Caucus endorsed him

So he has the support of some Democratic politicians.

[luvspeas]

79. After he couldn't find someone to replace obama

According to omalley

[Solero]

78. That's a large part of his appeal

He's seen as an outsider. Not part of the establishment or the party machine. We shouldn't underestimate that.

[gwheezie]

90. I don't know how he is an outsider

He's gotten a paycheck for being a politician for decades.

[Cha]

4. "Please feel free to use the comments section to call me a corporatist, warmongering neoliberal

shill but this is the reality. And it would be the reality for anyone running against Hillary Clinton in 2016, regardless of political message"

Preemptive strike .. I like it!

[BlueMTexpat]

5. These are the cold hard facts

of today's US Presidential election processes, I'm afraid.

There is also the fact that, despite how Hillary is characterized by some, she is not now and never has been anything like any of the GOPer candidates. And she never ever will be. Thank heavens! Anyone who argues such is no longer credible to me.

I am SOOOOO done with the not voting for the "lesser of two evils" BS that has lost elections for Democrats on too many occasions. Such people - if they really mean what they say - don't even deserve the right to vote, IMO. They refuse to understand what is at stake. Or they are operatives - paid or volunteer - who are deliberately trying to sow dissension.

During my first several years of DU membership, I only put two individuals on "Ignore." Lately, I have found the "Ignore" button to be my friend, especially during the past couple weeks. My list has grown exponentially and likely will continue to grow.

What a shame that we cannot be happy that we have three excellent Dem candidates! Although the odds - at least currently - are overwhelmingly in favor of one, especially when one considers the "cold, hard facts" mentioned here, no election is over until it's over. When it is, then we will have our candidate. And only then.

I will support whichever of these three who wins the nomination with all my heart. But until then, I am a wholly committed Hillary supporter. Period.

[Mbrow]

22. Well, I'd like to point out

That in my opinion (an it is just an opinion) that what bites us in the ass is that when Dem's run to the left then govern to the right (or toward the moneyed class) it makes a lot of people disillusioned. Polling shows many of us are to the left which is why HRC is moving left as many dem's in the past have done. If she wins i'll vote for her as i think 95% or so of Bernie supporters will, but I have little hope that she will move to the left except in some social issue like Obama has. I always vote, but sometimes it's hard to hold my nose and do it. Here in Idaho it doesn't make much difference but I like seeing Dem's pulling about 30-35% of the vote here.

[BlueMTexpat]

29. It is frustrating indeed and

I certainly understand how you feel.

Bernie and Martin have both contributed significantly to pulling the Dem establishment and rhetoric to the left, IMO, and I certainly cheer them for that among their many other sterling qualities. I want to see both of them stay in and continue with that good work.

And then, who knows? It's still early in the game. But for the long haul, whoever the Dem nominee is will need the Dem establishment and this is a basic truth. The GOPers certainly aren't going to help.

Like many in the US, I wish that we had a functioning multi-party system. But that is not what we have and that will not have changed by the 2016 election.

Thanks for always voting! Yours is a beautiful state, right next to my birth state. You can blame the early MT politicians for getting to DC first and making their case for the Northern Rockies, thus giving Idaho its panhandle link to Canada. Sorry about that! http://history.idaho.gov/territorial-history

[Mbrow]

32. Thanks!

I'm not Native to Idaho, we moved here in 2003 from San diego, Not native there either. I've always called north Michigan home its where my family is from. I'm lucky enough to have a job that it doesn't matter where i live. Idaho is great, a lot of people to the right but still nice. I'm in Idaho falls, great little community, the national labs brings in some normal people and the rest are LDS who tend to be reasonably civilized. (tongue firmly in cheek).

[Scuba]

7. This may or may not be correct, but he's still the best candidate we have.

[newfie11]

17. And the best we've had in a long time! #FeelTheBern2016

[deutsey]

35. +1

[Solero]

85. +1

[LittleGirl]

8. We're a year from the election

and the primaries haven't even started yet so I'm going to hold on hope that Bernie will be the countries choice. It's really too early for me to give up on #FeelingTheBern.

Won't vote for Hillary if I don't have to.

[hack89]

23. Bernie has four months

It will be over, one way or another, after Super Tuesday.

[Demeter]

9. The nice thing about change is--things change. The Old Way stops working

And as Dylan says:

[billhicks76]

10. Lol...haha...Desperate Editorial

Are you implying Hillary wouldn't mobilize her troops to support the democratic nominee? I thought that's a cardinal sin here on DU. If you haven't noticed no one trusts Clinton's and Bushes anymore. They are both Proven liars.

[Betty Karlson]

14. And that is the big trouble Clinton is in.

But surely it is sacrilege to talk that way of the Annointed One.

Go ahead, call me a pony-wanting special snowflake. Obama's lot did that too when I asked for equal rights; it's nothing I can't take.

[billhicks76]

46. The Hillary Only Group Is Pathetic

I cant believe they allow a private group on here to come up on common threads. It's antithetical to democracy. They want a republic not a democracy just like you know who. Lately their group has about 7 or 8 comments at most. Thats a barometer of the enthusiasm she will generate. Democrats are committing political suicide if they elect any woman with a "D" next to her name. Select Elizabeth Warren and say hello to 8 years of democrat executives. Bernie too can win.

[Hissyspit]

11. This one again?

[willvotesdem]

12. Biggest question. A year from now will HRC still be a candidate? eom

[840high]

55. A lot can happen in a year.

[stevenleser]

76. No, she won't, she will be President elect. Nt

[riversedge]

84. Winner of this thread!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

13. Silly kids and their fads.

[sellitman]

15. God Save The Queen!

Wouldn't have that been easier?

[Amimnoch]

16. Worse than him losing the primary.. there is no scenario where he actually wins.

When it comes down to it, losing the primary is the best thing that could happen for him.

He loses the primary, Hillary gets blamed for everything from owning the media to intimidating the world into electing her, and he at least departs the stage with his grande perfectness intact.

He wins the primary but loses the General, we end up with a SCOTUS that is solidly conservative, and everything from abortion to gay rights starts to get rolled back.

He wins the primary, but wins the General, and there is the worst scenario. There isn't a potential congressional make up in the works.. at all.. that will work with him to make his agenda happen... sooo, he will either have to compromise and give in to establishment on some issues in order to get issues he's most passionate about to move forward.. some.. thereby becomeing just another poltician OR he will stick to his guns, maintain the integrity for which he is famous and become the worst, most ineffectual presiden of all time.

[Armstead]

31. YOu think the GOP CIngress is going to work with Clinton?

Certainly not on guns or otehr social issues.

But Hillary will ultimately have the same advantage that Bill did. They can use the situation to pass through the Corporate Conservative agenda that she supports anyway. She can pay off her corporate friends, gut Social Security and blame it on the GOP Congress

[Amimnoch]

38. more than Sanders.

[Armstead]

40. You're right.....On the second half of my post

[denbot]

19. Blah, blah, blah..

November is a long way off.

[hack89]

24. But March is a lot closer

It will be over, one way or another, after Super Tuesday.

[bec]

20. Oh and let's face it

Clinton will get the "low information" voters to vote for her, purely because of her name.

[cantbeserious]

21. A Good Rant By A Corporatist Warmongering Neoliberal Shill

Last edited Tue Nov 3, 2015, 08:56 AM - Edit history (1)

eom

[aikoaiko]

25. Bernie has always been in big trouble. It was always an uphill battle to beat the HRC machine

And he was never going to beat her in a traditional campaign. His only hope was to do it differently and he earned a big chunk of support of likely Democratic voters 25-35% doing it that way.

Except for his supporters, no one that those numbers were even possible.

Lots of HRC will say "I told you so" if she gets the nomination, but they never thought he would get as close as he has either.

Bernie will have to bring out a near miracle to win the nomination, but its not impossible despite the resources and connections of the HRC campaign. After all, he's more than half-way there.

[freedom fighter jh]

26. Because the opinion that counts is the opinion of the Democratic Party structure,

not that of the voting public.

Clearly Hillary has the party's support and Bernie does not, so why don't Sanders and his supporters just give up?

sarcasm

Edited to add sarcasm note

[VanillaRhapsody]

53. Do you not read the numbers...

He doesnt have them.....not just the structure.....the Democratic voters DO want her...in spite of all the poo flung from the right and left.....they still want her..whether it fits your narrative of the scenario or not.

[840high]

56. Did you see what heppened in

Ky? dem was leading in all polls. He lost.

[freedom fighter jh]

74. I was responding to the OP

It says Bernie can't win because he doesn't have support within the Democratic Party. It's talking not about voters generally, but about people within the party power structure.

But it should be the people's votes that count.

It's too soon to say whom the Democratic voters want; there has not been any voting yet.

[VanillaRhapsody]

75. It is...thats my point...

[freedom fighter jh]

94. What is?

I don't know what part of my post you're referring to.

It's too soon to say whom the Democratic voters want?

[Agony]

27. Climate Change makes those particular facts warm and mushy.

very changeable facts in fact.

[Hortensis]

28. If Bernie can get the young vote out, in the primary and

in the general, he doesn't have to be elected president to be a great success. Also those uninvolved older people he helped wake up and bring to the fray.

I don't see Bernie as in trouble because I never expected him to win the primary. Notably, I don't see him needing to drop out before then, which would mean he was "in trouble."

As it is, he seems to be doing quite well and has lots of time to spread his message around America. Go Bernie!

[Doctor_J]

30. The United states is in trouble if our choices next year are Hillary and Bush

I'll tell my grandchildren exactly how and why it came to this, and the dinos will get a rough treatment in my version

[mymomwasright]

34. The only solace I have if she does win..

Is that Bernie and Elizabeth will hopefully still be in there to "check" her when she inevitably starts paying back to all her benefactors. I know some would like to see her or Bernie as VP, but I believe that would be "selling out" their principles to run alongside her.

[sgtbenobo]

58. Bernie + Martin?

4 years then O'mally. then president, Warren.

[Le Taz Hot]

36. And all the corporate-fellating zombies

rejoice. Yeah, I know. Hide. But it had to be said.

[MannyGoldstein]

49. AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service

On Tue Nov 3, 2015, 11:31 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

And all the corporate-fellating zombies
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=760802

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

This broad brush insult is over the top.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Tue Nov 3, 2015, 11:33 PM, and the Jury voted 1-6 to LEAVE IT.

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[postatomic]

98. Can a Zombie perform oral sex?

Sure, they eat but can they "eat"? Sorry, big The Walking Dead fan here.

[saturnsring]

37. even with all the negative ads done by the bernistas? you mean slamming hillary constantly

isn't helping?

[workinclasszero]

39. "He has said at least twice that as president, he will push legislation through Congress by

threatening Republican leaders with being voted out of office by an army of youths. This will not exactly strike fear in the hearts of Republicans from safely gerrymandered districts."

You have got to be kidding!?

This is really Bernie's strategy if he is elected President??? Really?

Wow what a joke!

[stevenleser]

97. 0% chance Bernie himself believes that. So he is pushing untrue nonsense he himself doesn't believe.

There is also zero reason for Bernie to be running if there is essentially nothing different he would be able to accomplish than any generic Democrat.

It's a huge waste of time, money and effort.

[Vinca]

41. If Bernie is in big trouble then the country is in big trouble.

[stevenleser]

77. Nope. Even if he was elected he wouldn't have been able to do anything with a GOP House

No Democrat will.

So this idea that if he won everything would change or be different is silly.

[Vinca]

81. I've been saying the exact same thing about Hillary.

I guess I'm thinking mindset rather than what can get done before the next census and change in voting districts. IMO, Bernie seems to care more about the average person and will at least bring the issues to the forefront in neon lights. Hillary would be a fine POTUS, I just connect more with Bernie.

[sufrommich]

42. Does the Sanders campaign even hold training sessions

for their campaign workers and volunteers? I haven't seen anything mentioned and wonder if his campaign is doing any real formal planning in regards to staff and volunteers.

[Gothmog]

43. Sanders never had a chance of being the nominee

Sanders is running to push his issues. Even Sanders campaign manager admitted that Sanders' main goal is to be considered to be a "serious" candidate. I keep reading articles hoping to see some signs of viability for the Sanders campaign in the general election. Here is a thread that is a good example. See http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251667157 if you read the last three paragraphs of the article cited in that thread, Sanders campaign manager does not outline a path to the nomination but a path to be a "serious" candidate.

If all goes according to plan, Sanders will have won enough delegates by mid-March to be a serious contender for the nomination. That would signal a shift for Sanders; it would be time to court the establishment. “Then we have to offer fundamental assurances to party leaders who say he’s a socialist. He’s been in the Congress 25 years and his program is not to replace the current system with socialism, it’s to revive the middle class.”

Sanders’s outsider campaign has been likened to Jesse Jackson’s insurgent campaign in 1988—it wasn’t until the Wisconsin primary in April that Michael Dukakis defeated Jackson. But Devine thinks the more apt analogy to today’s politics is 1984 when the combination of Gary Hart’s insurgency and Jackson’s coalition of minority voters together almost beat Walter Mondale. “Jackson never received support from the institutional party, but he demanded respect. If we register, as Jesse Jackson did, millions of people, that would be a huge lift for the party in Senate races.” And for whichever Democrat reaches the magic number of delegates next year to secure the nomination.

The idea that Sanders is good for the Democratic Party is a hard lesson for Clinton to appreciate in the heat of battle. But he’s got voters fired up and ready to go, and Democrats need that energy.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/12/bernie-sanders-s-strategist-this-is-how-we-win.html
The apparent goal of this campaign is not for Sanders to be the nominee but to be considered a serious candidate who might almost beat Hillary Clinton.

This article is silent on what Sanders intend to do in a general election contest in that it appears that Sanders campaign manager does not expect that Sanders will be the nominee.

Again, Sanders needs to come up with a good explanation as to how he is viable in a general election if he wants to expand the base. I keep looking for a good explanation and I have yet to see anything close.

[MattSh]

44. America is in even bigger trouble than Bernie Sanders is...

and electing Hillary ensures that America will remain in crisis. Think hard America.

Oh, who the hell do I think I'm fooling. America will once again vote against its best interests, because thinking IS hard.

[sonofspy777]

45. No. Neoliberal Hillary supporters can

imagine it as well!

[tishaLA]

47. I think this is true of Third Way Progressives generally

Sen Sanders is more a symptom of it

[MohRokTah]

48. I seriously doubt his campaign will be able to get him on the Virginia ballot.

Getting your name on the Virginia primary ballot for the presidency is the most costly in terms of both money and organizational capability in the entire nation.

I sincerely doubt his campaign will be up to the task.

[zappaman]

71. Have you enjoyed your stay?

[Agschmid]

87. Wow.

[zappaman]

89. Oops...they're gone.

[stevenleser]

96. What is fascinating is that one person voted not to hide calling someone the "C" word.

I hope the admins are dealing with that juror.

That juror doesn't belong here either.

[Bernin4U]

50. No, Bernie doesn't play the game, because

The game is shit.

They question is, why do you continue to want to play it? Why can't you find the stones to say "No more"?

[Thinkingabout]

51. A big problem for Sanders is the seniors are polling for Clinton, guess who is better in following

through on voting, the seniors. This puts votes in Clinton's column, there are young people also for Hillary and women are pulling for Hillary because we know she is the better qualified candidate. She has the strength to stand for what she believes in and not try to hide behind some excuse of how she voted because she takes responsibility for her actions.

[840high]

57. Not this senior or my

bridge group.

[Thinkingabout]

65. He was speaking to a senior group, they never stopped playing cards.

[840high]

68. New York times had an

article recently how Sanders resonates with seniors. Sorry I didn't save the link.

[Aerows]

59. Your concern is noted.

Meanwhile, I will be talking to people in my community, I will drive seniors to the polls, and no amount of "I'm concerned he can't win" will keep me from doing so.

[RandySF]

60. Who said I was concerned?

[Aerows]

61. All of the sudden

in the ramp up to N.H. there seems to be an awful lot of "Bernie can't win" posts.

Guess what? Obama couldn't either.

[RandySF]

63. Bernie doesn't have Obama's coalition.

He'll get killed on Super Tuesday

[Aerows]

66. Says who?

You?

Excuse me if I am dubious of your assertions. It's not over, so don't count your delegate chickens before they hatch.

The same thing played out in 2007, and of course Hillary Clinton won.

Oh wait ...

[Major Hogwash]

67. Don't you get all warm and fuzzy whenever they start to trash Bernie this way?

Because their own candidate suxs so bad.
It's totally boring equine excrement, flamebait for the less fortunate, red meat for the rabid, foaming-at-the-mouth warmongers.

[Aerows]

64. BTW -

Nice imagery "his campaign has been taking on water faster than the Lusitania".

Sunk by a German U-Boat. Subtlety seems to be a lost art these days.

[slipslidingaway]

69. Good, she does not need my vote, as I would have hard time voting for someone who would inflict pain

carelessly on people of other nations.

[Aerows]

70. Keep telling prospective voters

that their votes aren't needed, and they might end up taking you seriously.

Haughty is the attitude that resonates from such commentary.

Since it's a coronation, then I might as well vote for who I want to in the Primary, since she is inevitable. The candidate and supporters that believe anyone is entitled to my vote *IF* are riding the cusp of destroying the loyalty of otherwise steadfast (D) voters.

That worked out for People United Means Action Dems, didn't it?

Make no mistake. Voters do not forget wholesale insults of their issues.

[slipslidingaway]

72. I tell people their votes are needed but they should beware to vote for someone does who not

carelessly take the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and trusts Bush with his judgement as to when to strike.

Maybe I needed the sarcasm tag, think we are on the same page here.

For some reason this song came to mind, one of my all time favorites.

"If you smile at me, I will understand
'Cause that is something everybody everywhere does
In the same language

I can see by your coat, my friend
You're from the other side
There's just one thing I got to know
Can you tell me please, who won the war ?

[riversedge]

83. I hope you will do the right thing and cast you vote in the GE.

[Kalidurga]

80. You should keep posting this like everyday

it seems to make people here feel better knowing there is no way Bernie can win. Seriously, just like November 2007.

[firebrand80]

82. Sanders is doing great

As far as I'm concerned, he was never going to win. Even if he were todrop out tomorrow, he's already far exceeded anyone's expectations, maybe even his own.

Bernie has shown that there is a growing young, enthusiastic bloc of liberal voters in this country. This bloc isn't quite mature enough to propell a candidate to the presidency yet, but it will be in the next decade.

[SidDithers]

86. South Carolina: Clinton 71 / Sanders 15 / O'Malley 2

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

Discussion here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251764928

Sid

[SunSeeker]

95. K & R

[postatomic]

99. Hillary is now at 401. Sanders is holding steady and firm at ....... 2

I see this thread is full of snark and such but these numbers are very significant. Ya' see, Democrats watch out for other Democrats.