Yes, Polling Trajectory Shows Bernie Defeating Hillary and Winning the Dem Nomination

[pinebox]

Hillary Clinton finished 3rd in the 2008 Iowa Caucus, even though an October 6, 2007 article in CNN stated the New York Senator had a commanding lead over her competition. Titled Giuliani and Clinton lead latest poll, Hillary Clinton's lead in the polls over Barack Obama seemed insurmountable:

On the Democratic side, Clinton pulled away from her closest rival for the nomination, Senator Barack Obama, D-Illinois, by more than 20 points. The poll showed her with 46 percent support, compared to Obama's 25 percent.

The remainder of the Democratic field was in single digits.

Sound familiar? History will repeat itself in 2016 because Democrats in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and every other state have more in common with my recent YouTube segment than a static poll number. I explain why I'm only voting for Bernie Sanders in this segment, and why Sanders is more honest than Clinton in another YouTube segment. Also, the polling trajectory that I highlighted in an earlier piece is tied to why Hillary Clinton is unelectable (I explain here) due to negative favorability ratings, in addition to why swing states find Clinton "not honest and trustworthy."
http://goo.gl/vOuceG

[Thinkingabout]

1. Show me where Sanders is better than Obama, as said here many times Sanders ain't Obama.

[pinebox]

3. Sure

Here you go
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/remember-obamas-historic-2008-presidential-run-bernie-sanders-so-far-exceeding-it

[Thinkingabout]

5. Ron Paul had large rallies also, have you ever heard of President Ron Paul? Eugene McCarthy had

larger rallies than any other candidate, have you ever heard of President Eugene McCarthy?

[artislife]

19. Tale of the same city

Lets look at the large rally numbers

Ron Paul rally in LA

ooooo, plus 7,000---I must admit, way more than anything H has done this campaign so far

but lets look at LA and Bernie
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/250799-sanders-pulls-crowd-of-27500-in-los-angeles

27,000 plus according to the news report in that link.

20, 000 difference.

Your post is a false equivalance one.

[Thinkingabout]

23. Did you check on McCarthy's rallies, point is there was not a President Ron Paul or

President Eugene McCarthy, look up McCarthy's rally number before you declare my example a false equivalence.

[artislife]

32. You said Paul's number, are you changing the goal posts? nt

[Agschmid]

34. The original post says McCarthy so no...

No goalposts were moved.

[artislife]

35. Yes, because my response was to her post. nt

[Agschmid]

39. No, no goal posts were moved.

Sorry your just flat out wrong here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=740898

[artislife]

42. If I had wanted to answer another post

I would have hit reply to it.

I read her post on Paul and decided to RESEARCH Paul's large crowds. So that is why I answered with Paul v Sanders.

The fact that there is another post about another person's crowds is not what I was focused on.

I didn't know if you respond to one post in an thread line, you are actually responding to any other post depending on what some third party thinks is relevant.

Like now, I truly in my heart of hearts believe I am responding to you and not some other poster who has happened to post under this OP.

I truly believe that.

[George II]

68. Ben & Jerry's announced that they give free ice cream at all Sanders rallies.

Maybe they were all there for the free ice cream?

By the way, the Boston Red Sox drew 3 million people this season and they still finished last!

[Thinkingabout]

41. This was stated in Post #5

Ron Paul had large rallies also, have you ever heard of President Ron Paul? Eugene McCarthy had


larger rallies than any other candidate, have you ever heard of President Eugene McCarthy?"

No, I did not move the goal post, you only provided information on Ron Paul, Eugene had larger rallies than Paul also but still did not produce a President Eugene McCarthy, perhaps a little more care in reading.

[artislife]

45. I wasn't responding to post 5

I was responding to you state large crowds for Paul. That is why I hit reply to your post.

I looked it up. I thought, gee I wonder if Paul really had large crowds.

He did, larger than Hillary but not as large as Sanders.

I hope I am responding to # 41,

but I could actually be responding to another number in the cooking category by the way it seems some view responses.

[Thinkingabout]

51. Who posted #32?

[Agschmid]

46. No goal posts were moved in the making of this post...

[George II]

67. Exceeds Obama in "crowds and donations"? Amazing that you use THAT criteria.

So if Sanders is so spectacular, why wasn't he elected President in his 40s as Obama was?

[Motown_Johnny]

16. Nope, he is more liberal and that is what the primary voters want.

We agree, he isn't Obama. But some of see it as an advantage.

[Thinkingabout]

17. Not enough voters.

[mythology]

40. Polling suggests that Sanders isn't what the primary voters want

[leftofcool]

2. Sorry Bernie is no where near Obama's league.

[pinebox]

4. Catch

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/remember-obamas-historic-2008-presidential-run-bernie-sanders-so-far-exceeding-it

[Thinkingabout]

6. Oh, have you looked at the large crowd of endorsements Clinton has gotten? Yes the number is large

and growing.

[pinebox]

7. Sure

but have you looked at the large crowds themselves that Bernie has gotten? Those are getting huge.
Endorsements mean little when you have people showing up to your rallies that are absolutely gigantic in size.

[artislife]

20. Around 250,000 strolled into arenas

because they had nothing better to do during the summer months...

just kicking tires...wow, this doesn't jibe with the disinterested voting public meme....

[Thinkingabout]

24. Where did he have 250,000 in an arena?

[artislife]

33. We tallied the numbers from all the events

Please be careful when reading posts.

Thank you

[Thinkingabout]

36. Perhaps those placing thos number should be careful when trying to give this as

A number attending and if it includes all rallies it should be stated. Now since there was people who attended several rallies the number of votes needs to be adjusted, probably needs more than 16,750,000.

[artislife]

38. Perhaps understanding

arena means one and arenas mean more than one will also be helpful.




You can scour the Bernie group for the Op which has the thread. Research is good.

[Thinkingabout]

53. I am comfortable with my information, thought I had missed a really big Sanders rally.

[frylock]

8. Very insightful analysis you've provided to back up your claim.

[JaneyVee]

9. HAHAHA GOODMAN!

[pinebox]

21. lol

you took the bait! http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=67382

[JTFrog]

25. You are a master. n/t

[DCBob]

10. Interesting that CNN poll doesnt show up on the RCP tracking of 2007 Iowa caucus.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls

The graph shows Hillary biggest lead to be around 7 points (30-23) over Obama in late October 2007.

On edit: The article is referring to a national poll. Its misleading in that it sounds like they are talking just about Iowa. In Iowa it was close at this time in 2007.

[Persondem]

11. At this time anyways the "trajectory" is completely in Clinton's favor

It is pure fantasy and wishful thinking to claim otherwise.

You are claiming that because a candidate overcame a large polling deficit and came from behind once, that that is the norm. No, almost ALL of the time the candidate leading in the polls by 30-40 points wins the contest.

[DCBob]

12. This article is referring to a national poll.. not an Iowa poll.

Very misleading.

Here is an Iowa poll from that same time:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/10/07/clinton-and-romney-lead-latest-iowa-poll/

Clinton: 29 Edwards: 23 Obama: 22.

[Metric System]

27. H.A. Goodman is a hack.

[DCBob]

28. Clearly.

[pinebox]

43. lol

you took the bait! http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=67382

[Capt. Obvious]

56. Jury results

AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service
On Thu Oct 29, 2015, 10:45 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

lol
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=743539

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Is really fair to mock someone by saying "you took the bait" and then link to a protected group where they aren't able (and shouldn't) respond. Certainly seems like maliciously trolling to me, sort of a you can't touch me thing. This is disruptive, and should be hidden.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Thu Oct 29, 2015, 11:02 PM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: LOLerter
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Seriously?
Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Troll. They have been here since 2013. They have 802 posts. 801 in the last 90 days. They are doing their best to stir shit up on DU. I agree malicious trolling. They want to take Hillary down. Hide it!
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[George II]

66. You enjoy baiting other DU members, for whatever reason?

[pinebox]

72. And

you enjoy alert stalking for whatever reason. 'Nuff said.

[George II]

77. Who are you pinebox?

[pinebox]

81. Who am I?

The international man of mystery of course XD

[workinclasszero]

13. Sure lets look at the polling evidence...

Texas: Clinton 59% Sanders 10% O'Malley 3% Undecided 28%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/110723972

Lone Star State Poll -Hillary Clinton 59% Bernie Sanders 10%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251736969

Palmetto State Poll-Clinton -43% Sanders 6% 0'Malley 3%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251734319

International Longshoremen's Association to endorse Hillary Clinton this Saturday
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251735010

Loras College Poll (IOWA) - Clinton 62% Bernie Sanders 24% Martin O'Malley 3%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251733510

Clinton is rising in North Carolina
PPP's new North Carolina poll finds Hillary Clinton with her largest lead in the state since May. 61% of Democrats in the state support Clinton to 24% for Bernie Sanders
http://www.democraticunderground.com/110723689

BREAKING: New Loras poll gives Hillary 38 point lead over Sanders in Iowa
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251732960

Two new polls give HRC huge leads in Iowa
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251732917

BREAKING: Senator Sherrod Brown Endorses Hillary Clinton for President.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251732053

Key Union Endorses Clinton - AFSCME
http://www.democraticunderground.com/110722738

Clinton Holds Massive Lead in Iowa
October 27, 2015By Taegan Goddard


A new Monmouth University Poll in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton with a huge lead over Bernie Sanders, 65% to 24%, with Martin O’Malley at 5% and Lawrence Lessig at 4%.

Key findings: “Clinton enjoys a large lead over Sanders among both male (55% to 33%) and female (73% to 16%) voters. She also has an edge across the ideological spectrum, leading among voters who are very liberal (57% to 34%), somewhat liberal (68% to 22%), and moderate (69% to 19%).”

A new Loras College poll finds Clinton leading Sanders, 65% to 24%, with O’Malley at 3%.

http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/27/clinton-holds-massive-lead-in-iowa/

Oh wait....

[workinclasszero]

71. Sure I get it

If all the polls showed Bernie beating Hillary by huge margins, they would be the most important thing in the world. Anyone that disagreed with them would be labeled a anti science flat earther nutcase and probably a republican plant to boot.

But they show Hillary winning by a huge amount so we get magic believing hysteria 24/7 in GD: P from the berniebros.

[oasis]

54. Question: In what bizarro world do people believe Hillary is NOT

kicking some serious ass?

[in_cog_ni_to]

14. K&R! Keep the truth coming! n/t

[MohRokTah]

15. The stupid...

it Berns.

[pinebox]

22. The immuturity

it earns. 4 gold stars!

[MohRokTah]

29. I learned how to spell immaturity in third grade. eom

[pinebox]

30. Good

You earned a cookie and also an ignore. See how that works? You like that? Third grade, I'm thinking that was rather recent considering your attitude.

Here, this is for you. Enjoy.

[MohRokTah]

31. Comparing Sanders to Moses? 100 ROFL HILARITY LEVEL!!!!

[Agschmid]

47. Hey at least you got a cookie out of it...

[reddread]

48. whats up for next year?

[MohRokTah]

55. Hopefuly I'll complete my MBA. eom

[reddread]

57. 100 ROFL HILLARITY LEVEL!!!!

seriously, best of luck!

[MohRokTah]

58. It is pretty hilarious. A simple piece of papaer should net me an additional third of my current

salary. Cracks me up every time I think about it.

[reddread]

59. reminds of a Nyquilled 3rd Way Manny post

how funny.

[MohRokTah]

60. That's life in America.

A silly piece of paper increases my salary by about what the average American family makes in a year.

Heck, my brother got his Phd and a company hired him for $400K/annum to do nothing but put his name on the letterhead. He received no assignments and attended just a few meetings. They just wanted the prestige of another Phd.

It's crazy what a simple piece of paper can get you!

[reddread]

62. incalcuable returns to society as well

i suppose.

[MohRokTah]

63. If somebody is willing to pay you for it, why wouldn't you do it?

I worked for a company that got acquired by another and made my job redundant. That's typical, but they kept me on for 18 months with a promise of another 6 months severance (in a lump sum) and all of my benefits for those 6 months so long as I stayed the full 18 months and helped them integrate the two networks. After a couple of months I was sent home to work from there. I attended 2 voice meetings per week and had to answer about ten emails per week except for the last two weeks where I was pretty hands on.

I got 6 figures/year for that and spent most of my days playing World of Warcraft with my work laptop up next to my game machine so I could answer any emails that came in.

People who claim government is inefficient have no clue how corporate America operates. I've worked in both sectors and can assure you, in most instances government is far more efficient that any publicly traded company.

[reddread]

64. thank you for an object lesson

[zappaman]

18. Ok. n/t

[SidDithers]

26. Goodman. LOL...

He's the Baghdad Bob of this primary season.

Sid

[pinebox]

44. lol

you took the bait! http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=67382

[irisblue]

61. alert results

Is it really fair to mock someone by saying "you took the bait" and then link to a protected group where they aren't able (and shouldn't) respond. Certainly seems like maliciously trolling to me, sort of a you can't touch me thing. This is disruptive, and should be hidden. They have been here since 2013. They have 802 posts. 801 in the last 90 days. They are doing their best to stir shit up on DU. This is the definition of malicious trolling.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Thu Oct 29, 2015, 11:24 PM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: I wish the Clinton supporters would stop alerting posts they don't like
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: I agree with the alerter....HIDE
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: It's tacky, sure, but I don't see it as warranting a hide. And if the poster wants to respond, they can do it right here in this thread.

[pinebox]

73. Actually

What's malicious trolling is anytime anybody from the Bernie camp posts anything at all Goodman, the Hillary camp goes absolutely rabid. I'm doing my best to stir shit up on DU? Ha! No. I'm doing my best to post what I see fit without having to worry about people losing their heads despite it relating to GD-P. Who's disruptive? The person posting a link or the people bringing out the pitchforks because "OMG the Goodman!!!11". Hard, not hard.

Until you can prove me wrong, I'll stand by exactly what I said above here.

[randome]

75. You consider it 'rabid' for one poster to show a dancing icon of ridicule?

And for 4 other posters to dismiss Goodman? I'm not sure you know how to use the word 'rabid' correctly.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]I'm always right. When I'm wrong I admit it.
So then I'm right about being wrong.[/center][/font][hr]

[pinebox]

79. Try again

Anytime any Sanders supporter posts anything Goodman, the Hillary comes out in droves with pitchforks. This thread here? Now multiply it by about 100. I know quite well how to use the word "rabid", however I don't know if my desk is big enough to hit my head on.

[JI7]

69. actually i would describe your posts in this thread as "going whacko"

[brooklynite]

37. Now, Bernie has the same financial resources and political alliances as Obama...doesn't he?

[Bucky]

49. actually polling trajectory shows O'Malley will win. 1% to 5% in one week.

At that growth rate trajectory, O'Malley will have well over 150% of the Democratic vote by February.

Now, can you tell me why my math is wrong in a way that doesn't also show that the article's math on Sanders is flawed?

[kristopher]

65. Yes.

The OP is a discussion of the hidden influence of low favorability and trust numbers on the long term prospects of a candidate (Hillary) that is a completely known quantity. Her current 'horse race' poll numbers are more a function of her universal name recognition than they are a measure of committed voters.
Bernie is set to deliver policies (via voter mobilization) that fulfill the social contract Obama ran on.

Your extrapolation has no logic or reasoning behind it other than charting a trend line from two data points.

[MADem]

70. H A Goodman is in the tank for Sanders. There isn't a single article he has written about

Sanders that doesn't read like a campaign ad.

Sorry--he's not a reporter, he's a scribe.

Now, why don't you respond with your lame little "LOL" where you mock in a goading, baiting fashion? You've done it twice already in this thread --what's one more disruptive, uncivil post to round out your game?

[randome]

74. Since the future is so predictable, all you need do is wait for it to arrive.

What's the point of trying to 'convince' everyone that the future you envisage is inevitable? There's an easy way to prove it.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]I'm always right. When I'm wrong I admit it.
So then I'm right about being wrong.[/center][/font][hr]

[LiberalArkie]

76. I personally thought it was well played.

[pinebox]

80. Indeed!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

78. This reminds me of Tojo talking about consolidating Japan's military victories...

This reminds me of Tojo talking about consolidating Japan's military victories in the Summer of 1945.