Obama yields electoral votes to tossup status

[Ira]

Electoral College opinion map weekly update

The average of 22 online Electoral College opinion maps is currently:
Obama 243 -12
Romney 196 unchanged
Tossups 99 +12

The gains for Obama in the race since three weeks ago as reflected in the average of the electoral college opinion maps were more than erased last week. And although the Romney average remained unchanged, Talking Points Memo assigns him 220 votes, the first time any map has given Romney over 206 votes since these maps started to be published in 2011.

http://peanutgallerypolitical.blogspot.com/

[Dkc05]

1. they are playing games to steal the election

They will phoney up the college voters. Who selects them?

[mikekohr]

2. The Highly Accurate Princeton Election Consortium has President Obama at 308 electoral votes -map-

?
As of August 20, 8:00AM EDT:
Obama: 308
Romney: 230
Meta-margin: Obama +2.52%
link: http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

The nation is divided. This will be a repeat of 2008. All but a few percentage points of the electorate have made up their minds. That explains the "static" nature of the poll numbers over the last year. The President and the Democratic Party can make a rout of this yet. I'm predicting the President gets 332 to 348 electoral votes. But we need 25 in the House, need to hold the Senate and reform the fillibuster rule or we get at least 2 more years of deadlock and Republican obstruction. That's how empires fall.

[Ira]

3. Check out Talking Points Memo

Princeton is among the maps being averaged. The Talking Points Memo map assigns 275 votes to Obama, the highest among all of the maps (with tossups calculated) being following.

There are two type of maps being published on the web, both snapshots as of the date the analysis was done. The Princeton map shows Obama 257, Romney 230, with the balance of 90 being tossups. If no tossups are assumed and the analysis forces the votes to one side or the other, you get Obama 308, Romney 230, no tossups. Either way, I hope the Princeton map holds up.

[Ira]

4. Sorry. It's easy for an old guy to mess up the details.

Princeton (with tossups):
Obama 257
Romney 191
Tossups 90

Princeton (without tossups):
Obama 308
Romney 230
Tossups 0

Tossups are generally within the statistical margin of error of the polls being used for the categorization. Following the debates, the "without tossup" analysis will probably be more meaningful.