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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLoras College Poll (IOWA) -Clinton 62% Bernie Sanders 24% Martin O'Malley 3%
http://loras.edu/LorasCollege/files/a2/a25b395d-257a-48e7-b082-68e8d10aa95c.pdfNote on methodology-: The Loras College Poll surveyed statewide 1,000 likely 2016 caucus participants. All results calculated at a 95% confidence
interval. Both subsamples of party caucus participants include no-party registrants who passed likely voter screen (see below).
Survey conducted with a random sample of registered voters (phone numbers drawn from official Iowa Secretary of State official voter file) who
voted in either the 2012 or 2014 general election or who had registered since December 1, 2014.
Likely caucus voter was defined as those indicating they were definitely or very likely to vote in the 2016 Iowa Caucus. Those indicating they
were somewhat likely were subjected to further screen question regarding their general interest in politics. Only those indicating they were
very interested in politics were then accepted within the sample as a likely caucus voter.
The statewide sample was balanced for gender and divided evenly across Iowas four congressional districts. Age was balanced to match past
caucus entrance polling.
Survey included both landlines and cell phones.
The survey was conducted using live operator interviews through a contracted professional call center.
Script development and methodology used for the survey received input from Republican campaign consultant Brian Dumas and Democratic
campaign consultant Dave Heller.
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Loras College Poll (IOWA) -Clinton 62% Bernie Sanders 24% Martin O'Malley 3% (Original Post)
DemocratSinceBirth
Oct 2015
OP
And the uncanny thing as how close the results are, well within the Margin Of Error
DemocratSinceBirth
Oct 2015
#4
Renew Deal
(81,866 posts)1. Is that two polls giving Hillary an approx 40 point lead?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)4. And the uncanny thing as how close the results are, well within the Margin Of Error
eom
Renew Deal
(81,866 posts)7. I thought the first was a mistake/outlier
But maybe not
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)9. It doesn't appear to be an outlier.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)3. Includes some interesting numbers by demographics.
Note age range 18-34, Hilary up 62-33.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)5. Two, count em, two polls
showing Hillary with a 40 point lead in Iowa!
IOWA!
You know one of the states that Bernie's got on lockdown?
Whoops!
Reality bites sometimes
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)8. I cited the methodology verbatim without comment
If you can demonstrate I did anything but that I will go to my kitchen, get a steak knife, cut off my index finger, eat it, and put it on youtube.
You have probably conversed with me dozen of times and you must know by now DemocratSinceBirth is crazier than the provervial jailhouse mouse.