Unskewing Monmouth's Iowa Poll

[magical thyme]

So Monmouth has released a new Iowa poll:

Hillary Clinton has support of 65% of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, while Bernie Sanders has

24% and Martin O’Malley has 5%, according to first Monmouth University poll since Clinton’s House Benghazi panel appearance and Vice President Joe Biden’s decision not to run.

If you believe this poll I have a bridge to sell you. There's no effing way this is correct.
This is a 10-12 point race in Iowa.

Did I break down the numbers for you? No. Because it is a fucking ridiculous result.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/27/1440708/-Unskewing-Monmouth-s-Iowa-Poll#

The comments say it all. Bad methodology.

Follow
Nate Cohn
✔ ?@Nate_Cohn
Clinton's 41 pt edge in Monmouth IA is bc the frame is wayyy too narrow: *reg* D who vtd in last 2 primary. That's not a caucus electorate
11:07 AM - 27 Oct 2015
2424 Retweets
1010 favorites


What a joke(1+ / 0-)
So you had to caucus during Dean/Kerry as well to be included in this poll? Who the hell approved this methodology?
by fatwa on Tue Oct 27, 2015 at 08:18:33 AM PDT
Gotta agree with you. (2+ / 0-)
There's no way the numbers could shift that drastically. What's the MOE? I just woke up so haven't looked at the crosstabs but anyone looking at those numbers should be skeptical.
P.S. I am not a crackpot.


New voters excluded(2+ / 0-)
Only 7% are between 18 and 34. 39% 65 and over. Ignore.
"When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.
by Paleo on Tue Oct 27, 2015 at 08:18:20 AM PDT


even the best pollsters are wrong(0+ / 0-)
5% of the time.
This is their first Iowa poll for Dems, so we've got nothing to compare it to.
Wisconsin Rising
by TobyRocksSoHard on Tue Oct 27, 2015 at 08:23:02 AM PDT

[MohRokTah]

1. I predicted LONG AGO that the "unskewing of polls" by Sanders supporters would begin at some point

How did "unskewing polls" work out for Romney???

[HerbChestnut]

17. This is pretty obvious.

Believing this poll is like Karl Rove convincing himself that Romney would win the 2012 election based on internals.

[MohRokTah]

22. Keep telling yourself that

[HerbChestnut]

30. I created another thread that posts a link to the poll internals.

You can see it for yourself. 76% of the people polled were over the age of 50. 7% were between 18-34. Does that sound like a representative poll to you?

[MohRokTah]

37. Sounds representative of standard Iowa Caucus goers

IT pretty much matches the Dem numbers for 2004 and 2008.

[Historic NY]

47. Old people the ones more likely to vote...

yeah I can see how thats a problem.

[Capt. Obvious]

52. I remember the howls in 2008

that caucuses were unfair because old people can't stand around for so long.

And they'd get bullied by Obama supporters.

[Plucketeer]

94. Have chairs been introduced to Iowa yet?

And what about younger folks having to deal with jobs, child care and the other travails of the years of youth?

[Ed Suspicious]

67. Why do you try so hard to be offensive?

I don't get it.

[Fawke Em]

78. I think he really doesn't want Hillary to win.

He's driving away people she'd need to supporter in the general.

I know I won't.

But, I don't have to. My state is solid red. I can vote for Micky Mouse if I want b/c all my state's ECs will go to the Republican, whatever crazy whack job that turns out to be.

[MohRokTah]

105. Why would I waste the time

You've already declared you won't vote for her, so no sense in wasting time trying to convert you.

[sabrina 1]

141. We don't have to. Hillary's own campaign is now saying the poll is rdiculous and actually

harmful. You might want to delete a few of those little, now infamous thanks to a 'well respected Duer' roly poly guys, or not.

But when her campaign itself admits the poll is ridiculous, it might be time to stop virtually laughiing. Up to you though.

[Fred Sanders]

24. Trump is also now complaing about the scientific polls now that he is a loser!

[MohRokTah]

29. The last resort of a defeated campaign.

This is awesome!

[NCTraveler]

38. This poll isn't from a corporate entity ten times the size of CNN.

You know, Facebook. If it isn't conducted by a corporate entity as large as Facebook, the results are unacceptable. Kind of like the line when one of the so called anti-corporatists here stated "I relied on google." Some of this stuff you just can't make up.

[workinclasszero]

58. I see light at the end of the tunnel...finally

Get ready for a Clinton landslide in 2016!

[workinclasszero]

34. Trump and Bernie have something in common now!

Spin baby spin!

[Fawke Em]

71. Nate Cohn is a Sanders supporter?

Not on your life.

[bravenak]

80. Lol!

[ToxMarz]

95. It was kind of entertaining.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

117. Hillary pays $300,000 a month on polling.

[MohRokTah]

118. That's smart presidential politics

The Obama campaigns spent similar amounts on polling.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

119. I call it "Trying to buy a fricken clue."

[NCTraveler]

2. Great numbers for Hillary.

This pollster seems to be pretty well in line with other pollsters during this cycle. Very few outliers.

[kenfrequed]

25. It is an outlier

The polling favored land lines by 75% to 25% for cell phones.

The poll also got 76% of it's responses from people over the age of 50.


Hillary probably has a lead in Iowa, but it isn't anywhere near this margin. Trumpeting otherwise is only going to make any other poll that shows Bernie gaining from this point as inertia and actually causes you more pain down the road.

[kenfrequed]

3. 76% of the respondents were over the age of 50

Hardly a representative poll I think. It is kind of odd since this outfit usually does fairly decent polling. I think it is possible that we are entering an age where polling is going to become somewhat less accurate. Cell phones allow people to ignore calls in a way they never have before.

[oberliner]

90. What percent of Iowa caucus goers are over the age of 50 generally?

I don't think it is that high, but I think it must be around 50-60 percent.

[kenfrequed]

100. Probably

I won't argue that Hillary might have a lead in Iowa, I just think this poll is an extreme outlier.

[oberliner]

101. I agree that the lead is probably not that big

I think there will be a split with Hillary taking Iowa and Bernie taking NH.

[MohRokTah]

4. Kicking the unskewing

EVERYBODY needs to see that Sanders supporters are now resorting to "unskewing polls", just like the Romney crowd did in 2012...

[workinclasszero]

5. Unskew those polls Bernie fans!

And we are off to the races folks! LOLZ!!!

You know your campaign is wrecked when you start this *hit up! Just ask President Rmoney, you know the thug with all the huge rallies?


Oh wait....


LOLOL! Go Bernie fans! SPIN IT!!!

[BeyondGeography]

6. Monmouth and Murray are rated A- by FiveThirtyEight

http://articles.philly.com/2014-11-04/news/56391232_1_rutgers-eagleton-patrick-murray-democrat-robert-torricelli

[stillwaiting]

15. Look at their methodology!

They are specifically excluding the portion of the population that is OVERWHELMINGLY supporting Bernie.

[Fred Sanders]

28. The methodology is sound based on past voting patterns....are those going to change?

But what does one expect from folks who prefer online polls to scientific ones and do not genuinely understand the difference?

[virtualobserver]

54. we shall see when people actually vote

[frylock]

77. And this is what's going to make watching y'all get blindsided all the sweeter..

it's like 2008 never ever happened. Don't stop thinking about tomorrow.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

130. I welome the outcome with open arms

[Fawke Em]

81. But they're not.

Between 25-30 percent of Iowa caucus goers were between the ages of 18 and 34. This has them at 7 percent.

[kenfrequed]

103. Exactly!

That is a great deal of underrepresentation.

I don't think I would be trumpeting this poll. It really only serves to create the impression of inertia on Bernie's side when future polls that are more representative of the population.

[brooklynite]

41. Has it occured to you that "the population that is OVERWHELMINGLY supporting Bernie" isn't in Iowa?

[workinclasszero]

62. Yeah the portion of the population that never shows up at the voting booth!

Go Hillary!

[frylock]

79. Other than in 2008..

remember what happened in 2008?

[workinclasszero]

84. Yup BHO I voted for him twice

No Barack Hussein Obama in this race, sorry Bernie fans.

[frylock]

91. Yeah, me too. A lot of the people being outright dismissed as unreliable also voted for Obama..

like I said, the blindside is going to be epic.

[workinclasszero]

92. Ok

Have you seen the two, count em two, polls out this morning showing Hillary swamping Bernie in Iowa?

It is epic for sure!

[frylock]

97. The polls weighted to mostly Boomers?

Seen em.

[workinclasszero]

99. Right, the people that actually get off the internet

and go vote where it counts, the ballot box.

[frylock]

102. And now we've come full circle..

it's been proven that they will get off the internet and vote if you give them something to vote for. They are not motivated to vote for Clinton.

[workinclasszero]

104. I'm not worried about people that will sit home against their best interests

If they don't give a damn about their own loved ones what can I do? Or Hillary?

See ya March 1st 2016 at the ballot box

[jeff47]

121. They're also the population that caused Obama to win both times.

In 2012, Obama lost voters over 40. In 2008, he lost or statistically tied voters over 40.

It was "the kids" who actually caused Obama to win both elections.

And you're pissing on them.

[NYC Liberal]

70. Yeah, just look at it! Facebook and Twitter are much more scientific.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=678062

[workinclasszero]

18. Wow!

A- by Nate

This poll is bad, bad news for Bernie fans.

I'm all broke up by it.

[workinclasszero]

60. Monmouth and Murray are rated A- by FiveThirtyEight

Monmouth and Murray are rated A- by FiveThirtyEight

Monmouth and Murray are rated A- by FiveThirtyEight

That bears repeating

[Dr Hobbitstein]

7. Truth the polls!

[Godhumor]

8. Looks like there is a misunderstanding of how the sample was selected

Respondents had to have caucused in one of the last two primaries, not both. They also had to indicate that they were likely to caucus this upcoming election.

In other words, the sample is of likely voters not just registered voters. And that does favor the more mature parts of that population.

[blackspade]

109. That in itself is a skewing issue.

It excludes anyone under 22 and under represents folks younger than 26, both groups that heavily favor Sanders.

[MohRokTah]

9. Kicking the unskewing again because I forgot to rec the thread

Here's hoping EVERY HILLARY SUPPORTER RECS THE THREAD, TOO!!!!

Let the world see that the unskewing of the polls has begun!!!!!!

[merrily]

14. Dude, you okay?

[MohRokTah]

20. This is pretty much an admission of defeat.

When the poll unskewing starts, it's over.

[merrily]

26. You okay, though?

[MohRokTah]

32. I won't die laughing.

But it could be a close thing...

[bravenak]

86. I'll save you!!!!

Remember Rove running down to harass the nerds with Megyn Kelly on Election night 2012?

[NCTraveler]

35. Pretty sure they are better than ok. nt.

[Gore1FL]

68. Doesn't look that way

Endless repatative and exclusive use of smilies in a post usually means "I want to add something, but have nothing to add."

[NCTraveler]

76. I would say there isn't enough there to draw conclusion from as you have.

I seem to like to have information when I draw personal conclusions on others. I'm kind of funny like that. I don't find as much "information" in the smilies as you.

[Gore1FL]

82. I suppose the poster could just like to spam, too.

In any event it's quite clear no value is added in a post full of repetitive smilies. The lack of context combined with spamming of the same thing indicates something other than "better than OK."

If you aren't ready to make "personal conclusions on others" why did you do just that in post #35--the very event that caused this sub-thread between you and I?

[NCTraveler]

87. I simply see that as more assumptions based of smilies.

Just not enough to go on. I would rather just think they are happy.

[Gore1FL]

113. The context shows otherwise.

Seriously, how long are you going to defend the untenable?

[zappaman]

42. Jury results

AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service

Mail Message
On Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:59 AM an alert was sent on the following post:

Kicking the unskewing again because I forgot to rec the thread
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=732451

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Please look at all this person's contributions to the whole thread. Just over-the-top assholery. No point but to disrupt.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Tue Oct 27, 2015, 12:05 PM, and the Jury voted 0-7 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No personal attacks. No broad brushes. Literally just a K
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Alerter really had to struggle to come up with a reason for alerting and has failed miserably.
Sorry, alerter. This is still DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND, not SANDERS UNDERGROUND. Leave.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: It's the primary season, a little "assholery" is to be expected. The copy/paste of all the laughing icons seems like a second-grader's gotcha, but not worthy of a hide.

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[MohRokTah]

45. Must have been one of my alert stalkers.

At least one of them will be on a 24 hour timeout now.

[Gore1FL]

73. That's a weird alert.

The post adds nothing to the discussion, but amateur-level trolling doesn't rise to the level of hide.

[Cha]

138. Explanation: Alerter really had to struggle to come up with a reason for alerting and has failed

miserably.
Sorry, alerter. This is still DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND, not SANDERS UNDERGROUND. Leave.

Love #4.. mahalo zappa!

[zappaman]

139. Sometimes it's easy.

[Cha]

140. Yeah, and itchy fingers gets a 24 hr time out. OH WELL!

Something I never have to worry about. I only alert if it's freakin' RED ALERT!

[Cha]

137. You can't make a freakin' move without those itchy alert fingers tracking you down. Lots of fun

walking on egg shells.. if you believed in those things. LOL

[Scuba]

10. Many (most?) polls are designed to influence opinion, not measure it.

[merrily]

13. This far out, that is definitely so.

[MohRokTah]

16. .

[Scuba]

19. The corporate oligarchs love guys like you.

[MohRokTah]

23. .

[Capt. Obvious]

50. AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service

On Tue Oct 27, 2015, 12:16 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

The corporate oligarchs love guys like you.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=732471

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Personal attack, sure the other guy is being an ass but he isn't calling the other on a "oligarch" can we stop with the personal attacks and attempted insults please?

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Tue Oct 27, 2015, 12:19 PM, and the Jury voted 1-6 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: I'm tried of these juvenile, mindless attacks.
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: OLD MAN YELLS AT OLIGARCHS
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: The post he was responding do appeared to have been made by a child. This response is reasonable.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Sigh... do people know how the "reply" button works? Getting an alert about an actual alert-able post would be a nice change of pace.

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[treestar]

96. You need to come up with names

It's too hard to picture "the corporate oligarchs.' How can we hate people we can't picture?

[Scuba]

115. Here's a starter kit ...

Oligarch Family Starter Kit

[merrily]

11. I wonder why Sanders (finally) hired one pollster of his own?

[stillwaiting]

12. My God. It's just blatant and in your face isn't it?

That is certainly one way to choose to not include Bernie's supporters isn't it?!?!

[Cali_Democrat]

21. LOL....let's take trip down memory lane, shall we?

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2012/11/unskewed-polls-founder-dean-chambers-on-polling-bias.html

[MohRokTah]

27. IT's a blatant admission of defeat when they start unskewing the polls

I LOVE IT!!!!

Rec this thread, THE WORLD NEEDS TO SEE THE UNSKEWING OF THE POLLS HAS BEGUN!!!

[BooScout]

31. Hmmmmm

Hillary is kicking ass!

[Fawke Em]

112. Yep... kicking our asses to the poor house.

[Gothmog]

33. Unskewiing polls worked so well for Romney and Karl Rove

Have fun

[Zorra]

36. With enough money, you can buy almost anything. People, polls, facebook likes,

talented, unscrupulous propagandists and strategists, elections, etc.

The list is endless.

[Historic NY]

44. Or even Howard Deans pollester.

[Skidmore]

63. Dayum, my

check hasn't come in the mail yet. I don't know how I'm going to pay the electric bill this month. And I got all sweaty slaving over FB likes and skewing polls.

[Zorra]

69. Believe it or not, there really are people who pay for hundreds of thousands of Facebook likes

and Twitter followers.

[Skidmore]

83. That may be true.

However, there are equally many people out here who are evaluating and making choices on candidates in anticipation of elections. It does not follow that every person who responds on a discussion board or places a like on FB is automatically to be labelled a troll or bought. It is insulting and cynical.

[Zorra]

114. I did not state, or imply, that "every person

who responds on a discussion board or places a like on FB is automatically to be labelled a troll or bought."

Lots of money buys lots of propaganda, votes, candidates, and subsequently, elections. It's the reason conservative SCOTUS justices voted to allow, with the Citizen's United decision, basically unlimited campaign spending by wealthy entities to ruin the democratic process

But it's fair to believe that I am cynical to a great extent concerning the influence of money and propaganda on American politics. I tend to think of it as being realistic.

[treestar]

98. So the oligarchs have been buying the polls for decades now

Since the polls have generally proven to be predictive.




I'd say overthrowing these oligarchs is going to take a lot more than Bernie.

[Fred Sanders]

39. More post-debate numbers from Iowa:

Clinton’s lead over Sanders is strong among both male voters (55% to 33%) and female voters (73% to 16%)

Clinton is second choice of 68% of Sanders supporters, while 19% say O’Malley would be their second choice

“We now have a two-person race, but one of those competitors has just pulled very far ahead,” says Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, N.J.

Clinton has 88% favorable rating and 8% unfavorable ●Sanders has 77% favorable and 11% unfavorable, O’Malley has 50% favorable and 14% unfavorable

[OilemFirchen]

40. I suspect that this poll is an outlier...

but the "unskewing" is embarrassing. What is the typical demographic of caucus attendees? Without that knowledge, presuming sampling bias is juvenile.

[magical thyme]

48. I gave the methodology it's own thread

this one was growing too fast to keep up!

[brooklynite]

43. Profile of the Caucusgoers

New York Times:

57% Female, 43% Male

93% White, 4% Black, 3% Other

22% 17-29
18% 30-44
38% 45-64
22% 65 and over

58% married 42% single

52% Less than $50 K
48% More than $50 K

[magical thyme]

46. very skewed toward older people, 75% landlines, 100% prior caucus-goers

and only 400 people total, which is not a huge number. When I studied statistics, I concluded anything less than 1,000 is kind of a waste of time.

[OilemFirchen]

53. Despite the record turnout in 2008...

typical caucus attendance is about 100,000 per party. 400 is an adequate sample.

The only anomaly I see in this poll is previous caucus participation. That omits perhaps 25% of the electorate, so Clinton's edge is likely overstated.

[zazen]

72. exactly!! prior caucus participation may miss larger trends of newly motivated voters

Pointing this out isn't "biased." Other statisticians have made this point during this election cycle.

It's very plausible to me that HRC's lead could have increased given the events of the past few weeks.

I suspect she's got a lead, but it's nowhere near this large.

[tblue37]

133. Yes, in 2008 the Dem Party in my state had a caucus rather than a primary.

It was my first time to vote in a caucus, though I had always voted in primaries and in general elections.

Therefore, at age 58, after being a regular voter for decades, I participated in a party caucus for the very first time. If a pre-caucus poll taken in 2008 had excluded people who had not participated in a previous caucus, I would have been excluded.

Nevertheless, I suspect that first time caucus voters who have always voted but who have never voted in a caucus rather than a primary make up an extremely small percentage of caucus voters, so probably the polls that would exclude people like me are actually not significantly skewed.

[emulatorloo]

55. Hi MT, are you contesting the NYT data about Iowa caucus goers as well?

Was confused by your reply. Iowa caucus goer here, NYT data matches up pretty much with my experiences.

I am sure Sanders campaign will make a huge effort to get millenials registered and out to their precinct caucuses. Will do my part, IMHO this is the take-away from this poll.

[brooklynite]

75. That was always the Howard Dean plan...didn't work out quite that way

Large rally crowds; low caucus turnout

[jeff47]

122. It was also the Obama plan. It worked out just fine for him (nt)

[NuclearDem]

49. When I opened this, I thought it was going to be satire.

But nope, we seem to actually be doing the "unskewed polls" nonsense now.

[Agschmid]

51. Yup we made it here...

Not a proud moment for DU.

[Fred Sanders]

57. Not as prideless as the time DU went all 19th century on the Ebola propaganda, but close.

[William769]

56. I hope no one is surprized at this.

It's their MO.

[MohRokTah]

59. I predicted it weeks ago

Up skewing the polls is the last desperate act of a failing campaign.

[William769]

61. Agreed.

[workinclasszero]

64. And you were right

[NYC Liberal]

65. LOL, Sanders fans are now unskewing polls? Was only a matter of time!

[Number23]

131. This forum is an absolute shambles today. Even worse than usual

And I'd laugh hard as hell that some of the nastiest, most divisive and clueless people here (and I'm not talking about the OP, btw) were wailing like banshees and getting their asses spanked if it weren't so astonishingly pitiful to watch.

[George II]

66. Look at the demographics of the electorate, especially in Iowa. They're right on!

[Gore1FL]

74. It's more of an outlier than anything else.

Never trust a single poll.

[Tarc]

85. "If you believe this poll I have a bridge to sell you."

Translation: a poll released did not show favorable results for my preferred candidate, so I will now attack the poll itself.

Stay classy, bro.

[upaloopa]

88. Hanging on to hope by it's tail

So if the next poll is similar what then?
If Hillary wins IA what then, stolen election?
Maybe Hillary's home server guy is programing all the caucus machines to steal votes for Hillary.

[MohRokTah]

110. A second poll has confirmed the results of this poll.

Work has begin on unskewing that poll.

[Amimnoch]

89. ROFL.. comedy at its best.

[Gamecock Lefty]

93. Skewed Oligarchy!!!

Here we go - skewed polls. Not representative. And all 75,000,000 millennials are voting for Bernie!!! And nobody under 80 is voting for Hillary.

Bernie, like his supporters - going negative!!! Anything to win.

Stay cool, Hillary!

[SoapBox]

106. I knew something smelled about this "poll"...

As usual, the devil is in the details.

Thanks for the break down.

[retrowire]

107. I'm laughing so hard at the Hillary supporters

that are literally mocking Bernie supporters that bothered to do research on this poll.

You guys are literally mocking people for doing research. that's so rich, its almost as rich as Hillary's top donors.

but then again I shouldn't be surprised! some Hillary supporters tend to accept things at face value all the time and never seem to dig any further. that's too hard am I right? (hint: I'm talking about accepting Hillary at face value and never scrutinizing any further and/or turning a blind eye to it)

[LexVegas]

108. ....

[MohRokTah]

111. .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

120. The results mirror the Loras Poll

http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2015/Clinton-Extends-Lead-over-Sanders,-Loras-College-P.aspx

[jeff47]

123. It has basically the same voter screen.

Which means it's also underrepresenting younger voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

124. You should start a facebook page where you and those similarly concerned can lodge your complaints

eom

[jeff47]

125. Why? We don't form our deeply-held beliefs based on the results of polls. (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

126. Then there isn't a problem. Sometimes a poll is just a poll./nt

[jeff47]

127. And yet that does not make it impossible to discuss their voter screen. (nt)

[George II]

116. Loras College released a new Iowa poll a short time ago:

Today: Clinton 62 (+14), Sanders 24 (+1), O'Malley 3 (+1)

August: Clinton 48, Sanders 23, O'Malley 4, Biden 16

Two observations - The Monmouth poll now looks a lot more accurate, and as expected just about all of Biden's support has gone to Clinton - 14 of his 16 went to Clinton and 1 to Sanders and O'Malley.

Unskew away!

[magical thyme]

128. And like the Monmouth poll, it excluded younger and new voters who are not yet registered

Survey conducted with a random sample of registered voters, with phone numbers drawn from official Iowa Secretary of State voter files of those who voted in either the 2012 or 2014 general election or who had registered since December 1, 2014.

So I'll keep that in consideration.

[George II]

129. Neither "excluded" younger and new voters - both used a sampling that reflects the demographics...

...of the electorate.

As you point out, they used voter files that included "who had registered since December 1, 2014, I would have to think those are "NEW" voters!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

132. Regardless of how one feels

Regardless of how one feels:

Unskewing Monmouth's Iowa Poll

the optics aren't good.

[sabrina 1]

134. Excellent analysis, thank you. Apparently even her own campaign doesn't believe that poll.

[NanceGreggs]

135. Funny how polls that show BS gaining on HRC ...

... never required "unskewing".

[Dem2]

136. The leveling of support has been occuring for some time now.

These latest polls may be on the extreme edge, but the real point is, and Bernie clearly knows this based on his new hires, he's leveling out and needs to do something to get above the 30% support level nationally (state-to-state variations are more difficult to comment on due to wildly varying demographics.)

[Admiral Loinpresser]

142. Dewey Defeats Truman! n/t