Stock Market trend indicates Obama's chances are higher than we think

[BlueStreak]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/obama-election-odds-better-think-says-hirsch-181506895.html

The current market trends are "80% - 90% predictive"

[TroyD]

1. Nate Silver's take:

Nate Silver

Does a Bullish Stock Market Predict a Faster Recovery?

http://t.co/EXqMOPZC

[BlueStreak]

2. Setting the politics aside, a Ryan/Romney presidency is scary on an economic basis

I mean, here we have a huge bull market. Companies are very profitable, so the market isn't an illusion. Investors understand how bad the Bush meltdown was, even if they don't want to say anything nice about Obama. And they know that they lost a bunch of money under Bush, and they have recovered all of that and then some in Obama's 3.5 years.

The markets always factor in future expectations. The strong markets are operating on the expectation that Obama will win and basically keep us on the recovery path.

While the "investor class" may be thrilled at the idea of paying a zero tax rate if (vice) President Ryan is able to eliminate the capital gains tax altogether, as is his plan, they also know that this will be devastating to the economy, leading to much greater deficits and possibly a revolution among the masses. At minimum, the masses will continue to lose buying power and that will hurt business broadly.

Bottom line, A Ryan/Romney presidency is a sure bear market, and it could be a fast, steep one.

One of the things I have noticed about the market mentality lately is what I was call a "forced optimism" profile. While the general trajectory has been up, the common patter has been a series of strainged, small gain, with the market just inching up, followed by one big loss when the slightest bad news is reported -- even as a rumor. What that tells me is that investors are walking on eggshells. Corporations are making big profits, but jobs aren't recovering fast enough. There is a lot of skittishness being repressed right now. All hell could break loose if the market were to conclude that a Ryan/Romney presidency becomes likely.

[JRLeft]

3. The stock market doesn't account for republicon cheating.

[BlueStreak]

4. It should -- if they are aware of the extent of it.

The stock market is the original "crowd source" database. It should project the combined wisdom and insight gained from all the available information. And the nice thing about the stock market is that people are betting their own money. It isn't like talking heads that can get fat just babbling abut the position they are paid to take. People buying in the stock market only get paid when they make smart decisions. That had a tendency to push politics aside.

But I would agree that most people involved heavily in the market are not very aware of the extent of the election-rigging that is going on. As we get closer to election day, they should converge around the truth.