Bad news for Sanders if he falls behind in New Hampshire

[Always Randy]

If Sanders falls behind in New Hampshire, it will be very bad news for his campaign. Not only is New Hampshire right next door to Sanders’s home state, Vermont, it’s also filled with his base voters: white liberals. If Clinton wins New Hampshire, it’s probably a sign that Sanders won’t be competitive in most states outside of Vermont.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/hillary-clinton-got-the-biggest-post-debate-polling-bounce/

[Smarmie Doofus]

1. Plenty of time for things to sort themselves out. And Clinton...

... has a remarkable talent for stumbling around just when her fan base is just starting to crow.

Plus which people basically don't like her. ( A *huge* drawback... esp in the general election.)

If I were Sanders.... I'd rethink his "never go negative" credo.

If he's not going to draw distinctions between himself and Clinton... who will?

He's got to make the case that it's a contest between a vision of a fairer, more equitable and more just society, on the one hand .... and more of the same on the other.

Or in this case...."President More of the Same". (With even more war and FANTASTICALLY expanded military budgets.)

He should couple all of the the above with a full-tilt, unrelenting horsewhipping of the Republican Party and its $$$$ owners.

[Always Randy]

3. you are right about the stumbling---

she is not perfect---I was astounded that Obama beat her ---but that is politics i guess--

[global1]

17. 1000+++++

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I dare any candidate to go negative on Hillary Clinton.

If I were Sanders.... I'd rethink his "never go negative" credo.

I dare any candidate to go negative on Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton makes Ronda Rousey look like Winona Ryder.

[Chan790]

24. Clinton is no Rousey.

Rousey, let's be clear, is a brutal maestro of the Octagon who could probably beat half the men (conservative estimate) in her weight-class. She talks trash because she backs that shit up like a sledgehammer to the face. She's probably the best fighter in any weight-class in any fighting-sport of either sex competing today.

Hillary Clinton is a politician who has a talent for coming across as insincere and smarmy and whose past efforts to go negative have left both her and her opponents smeared in metaphorical shit. She also loses as often as she wins when she goes negative.

Hillary is no Ronda Rousey...she's Bethe Correa.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Great point.

Clinton is no Rousey.

She's actually tougher. She might actually be harder to finish than Rasputin.

[BootinUp]

28. Its probably not necessary

to convince folks that the probable next president is as tough or tougher than Rhonda Rousey. lol. I think history will eventually sort this out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. They are both pretty tough, albeit in different ways.

As a guy I know I would want no part of either one of them in combat.

[BootinUp]

34. Agreed! :)

[Always Randy]

37. it's all about SCOTUS for me

[moabfan]

41. And 95% will go Rhonda who?

Many of us doesn't follow UFC. I only happen to follow UFC because of one guy that I know from college who's very active in the business.

[Always Randy]

51. It might not be a pretty sight

but HRC could whoop Rhonda's butt

[upaloopa]

29. You mistrake your dislike for Hillary as being the feelings of everybody else.

Bernie can't get over 25% support of Dems. He certainly will not pick up the minority vote in the primaries. Therefore he has no way to win the nomination.

Reality is a hard pill for some people to swallow.

[Always Randy]

40. I am for a vast healing after the nomination

please no more GOP until we get SCOTUS sorted out

[Chan790]

54. No, I know a lot of people {D, R, I} who think that about Hillary.

I don't know why Hillary supporters have a hard time accepting that their candidate is unlikable for a lot of people.

It's probably not going to cost her the GE if she gets the nomination...but I don't expect that there is going to be a massive oh gee, Hillary really is a warm, likable, sincere person sea-change. Her personality is what it is.

[workinclasszero]

36. If I were Sanders.... I'd rethink his "never go negative" credo.

Really? At this stage of the game Bernie going negative would be a clear sign of a failed campaign.

But hey...proceed Bernie fans.

[still_one]

52. There is a lot of time before the primaries, and a lot can happen to any of the candidates. A

misspoken word, gesture, or action can shift things very quickly one way or another.

History is littered with such examples

[Always Randy]

53. that is absolutely the right tack to take

particularly when your choice is behind ----every time in my life when I was down ---staying the course worked ------I am a Sanders man all the way if he gets the nomination ------I have said here before it is the SCOTUS appointments that I truly worried about ---thank you for your response and engagement on these points

[RichVRichV]

2. We'll find out if he has an issue in 110 days.

Only 3.5 months left until then.

[Always Randy]

4. bump and boost---from the Gowdy hearings

not many candidates can have that kind of thing as a gift to their campaign---the next few weeks will show some of this ---thank you for posting

[moabfan]

56. It'll be largely forgotten after next week

[Always Randy]

62. thank you for the response

this Benghazi thing is pretty big ---and the GOP hung their hat on it---now they are going after Planned Parenthood ---and I am thinking that it is more of an HRC issue---what do you think?

[riversedge]

65. umm 100 days till Iowa caucus today Sat.

[RichVRichV]

89. Yes, and NH primary is 8 days after that.

[Scootaloo]

5. Funny

When he was ahead, we were all told that it doesn't count because New Hampshire has a lot of white people.

Now suddenly it's a crucial state again, and very meaningful.

How odd.

[uponit7771]

6. It cant mean both?

[Scootaloo]

7. Given that "meaningful" and "meaningless" are direct antonyms, no.

[uponit7771]

8. Sanders is in a no win in NH primary, South Carolina?...if he comes close then Hillary has a serious

... challenge

[Always Randy]

9. I agree

[enid602]

85. dustbin

It would be kinda sad to see him relegated to the proverbial 'dustbin of History, ' so early in his career. Without having accomplished much. Oh well, there are always future contests.

[Always Randy]

10. everyone shakes these trees differently

[artislife]

11. I am starting to think White Liberals

are the enemy.

As a Latina, I have to rethink some of my friendships on this site.....

[Scootaloo]

15. We're truly terrible people

I don't know how I live with myself. Really I don't.

[Art_from_Ark]

18. I'm a white liberal, and I'm not your enemy

[artislife]

81. I'm gonna trust you

That's a friendly wave!

[Art_from_Ark]

93. Even though I'm a white guy

I'm a minority where I live

[yuiyoshida]

19. Hanging with you

Artislife <3

[artislife]

83. They seem awfully nice.

I mean, pitbulls get a bad rap, can it be the same with White Liberals?

I like em.

[mythology]

20. White liberals alone aren't enough to win the Democratic primary

Much less the general election.

[artislife]

58. Is that the reason we fear them?

[Matariki]

88. Fear? No. It's just "hippy punching"

Easy target. Hell, they'll do it to themselves if you ask them.

[DCBob]

13. If Bernie loses NH he's finished.

Winning it doesnt mean much unless he also does well in SC.

[artislife]

78. Super Tuesday isn't this week.

We can be "fighters", too.

&list=RDdQw4w9WgXcQ#t=0

[sufrommich]

23. The second sentence in the OP explains why losing

New Hampshire would be more of a disaster for Bernie than Hillary.

[Nye Bevan]

33. NH is only significant if Bernie loses there.

Last edited Sat Oct 24, 2015, 02:52 PM - Edit history (1)

Based on the demographics most of us have been assuming that Bernie has NH locked up. If he loses there his campaign is almost certainly doomed.

[artislife]

84. But not if Hillary does...

Why do I get the same feeling I had when trickle down economics was being explained?

My head tilts a little and my gut says...this feels like a con.

[BainsBane]

12. Variations in polling won't matter

but he has to win the actual NH primary to stand any kind of a chance in the election. If he can't win there, it's hard to see where he can win. He has a lot of money though, so he could go on for a while, even without wins.

[Duckfan]

14. The campaign is going to start spending on TV fairly soon.

Was informed of this a couple of days ago.

[delrem]

16. Well, you'll just have to hope that Hillary takes the lead.

Won't you?
And if she doesn't, it'll be bad news for her campaign, won't it?
After all, it's home of "white liberals", as some extremely divisionist propagandists might point out, and who is whiter and more liberal than Hillary Rodham Clinton?

[upaloopa]

32. Hillary is a white liberal with minority support Bernie isn't.

[FlatBaroque]

38. No, I don't think you understand

it's heads I WIN, tails YOU LOSE. Get it?

[Motown_Johnny]

21. NY state and NH are ~40 miles apart. Hillary's message can't carry that 40 miles?

The argument that Bernie has an edge because of the geography seems pretty slim, like the distance between the state Hillary was a Senator from and the boarder of New Hampshire.

[Ed Suspicious]

26. I didn't even consider this. Shows how powerful a narrative can be. Thanks for the wake up call.

[sufrommich]

27. It's geography and demographics,as the article points out.

Vermont and New Hampshire are very similar,the state of New York,not so much.

[Nye Bevan]

49. LOL. That's like saying Maine and Quebec are politically very similar (nt)

[OilemFirchen]

57. Or Vermont.

That's a most peculiar argument. How goes my state of Ohio, bordered by Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia and Pennsylvania? Or Colorado, sandwiched betwen Utah and Kansas?

[Nye Bevan]

31. If Sanders doesn't win in NH, he's done.

That would be like Hillary not winning NY.

[FlatBaroque]

39. ANd if he does win NH, it is meaningless

Heasd I win, tails you lose. #Clintonspeak.

[Nye Bevan]

45. Not so much "meaningless" as "completely expected".

Kind of like Tom Harkin winning the Iowa Caucuses.

[workinclasszero]

35. PPP: Hillary +10 in NH over Bernie

PPP: Hillary +10 in NH over Bernie

45-35 without Biden: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/clinton-reclaims-nh-lead-trump-still-up-big.html

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251718495

Whoops...heres your bad news Bernie.

[riversedge]

66. even NH is liking Hillary

[workinclasszero]

68. Yes!

[Always Randy]

74. thank you for your post

[Always Randy]

79. PPPP is kind of a Democatic mainstream poll

[MohRokTah]

42. If he loses both Iowa and NEw Hampshire, this thing will be over well before Super Tuesday.

He cannot afford to lose NEw Hampshire, he's the Senator from the state that shares the longest border with NH!

[workinclasszero]

43. Bernie is looking incredibly weak right now

And Hillary looks unstoppable, what a week!

[MohRokTah]

44. He was this weak all along.

The media including Biden in all the polls served to prop his weak numbers up.

[workinclasszero]

46. Yes and this little Bernie hothouse called the DU

was blowing a lot of smoke up peoples rearends as well

[MohRokTah]

48. DU ain't the only place.

The Berniebros are all over DK and other places.

These were the same people who have derided and denigrated everything Obama has done and will be the people who do the same to President Clinton starting at 12:01 EST January 20, 2017.

[workinclasszero]

50. Maybe people will finally learn that online polls

and spamming internet message boards counts for squat in a primary election campaign?

Nah probably not.

[Nye Bevan]

47. I wouldn't say he looks "weak".

But even the strongest man in the world would still be crushed when run over by a juggernaut.

[senz]

91. Aw yeh the corporate boys are smiling now

just makes ya happy all over, doesn't it?

Money rules, baby!

[pinebox]

55. Which bodes bad for Dems

because many and I mean MANY Sanders supporters won't support Hillary and will either vote third party or stay home.
That's reality. In the end, if Sanders isn't the nominee, I hate to say it but......ya.

[DCBob]

59. So here come the threats not to vote or vote third party.

[pinebox]

60. Where did I make a threat?

You really should stop projecting. I'll write Bernie in if Hillary is the candidate.
What I said though is the truth. Ask Sander supporters and see what they say. Hillary's favorability numbers are underwater. It is what it is. Connect the dots Bob.

[Always Randy]

71. thdre seems to be a lot of animosity on this site

do you think that eventually everyone will be together on whoever is the nominee

[Nye Bevan]

61. I would ignore all of that huffing and puffing.

When it's Hillary versus Carson or Hillary versus Trump I expect the vast majority of DUers to do the right thing.

[workinclasszero]

82. When its Hillary vs Carson

a man that PROMISES to destroy medicare, I think Bernie supporters will do the right thing.

Dr. Ben Carson's prescription: Abolish Medicare

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/ben-carson-medicare-medicaid-215055

[demwing]

63. I won't say whether I'll vote for Hillary

But I can say I won't donate to her, even if she's the nominee, and I won't support her, even if she's the President.

She doesn't need progressives, as her fan base has repeatedly made clear.

[treestar]

64. Careful, such a post can be hidden!

Posts have been hidden for less. No bad news for Bernie allowed!

[riversedge]

67. All told, Clinton has averaged 59 percent to Sanders’s 27 percent in national polls without Biden si

well, sometimes we can. It is celebration week.



....Clinton gained in five of the six national polls taken after the debate. This shouldn’t be too surprising: Media spin is what matters most after a debate, and Clinton received very positive coverage. That’s in contrast to her media coverage before the debate, which was very negative. What’s a little bit uncertain is how much ground she picked up. The average has her up 6 percentage points, but CNN found her down 1 point, and the Emerson College poll had her up 15 points.

Sanders, on the other hand, seems to have dropped a little bit, though the picture is muddled. He was down in four polls and up in two. That fits with the idea that Sanders didn’t necessarily do poorly in the debate. Sanders has a well-established ideological base and a group of core supporters who are well-versed in politics and were unlikely to be swayed by the debate.

All told, Clinton has averaged 59 percent to Sanders’s 27 percent in national polls without Biden since the debate. In an average of all polls without Biden in the month before the debate, Clinton was at 53 percent to Sanders’s 29 percent.

[treestar]

69. Yes, the Biden people were bound to support Hillary

Though there were a few Biden supporters who went to Bernie - interesting people they must be!

[Warren Stupidity]

72. what a deep and thoughtful post. thanks for the insight.

[Always Randy]

73. thank you for sharing

[Vinca]

70. Let's wait a little and see what happens.

Back in 2008, Obama's "breakaway" moment was the speech at the Iowa "JJ" dinner. That event is tonight and I can't imagine Bernie won't blow their socks off.

[Cassiopeia]

76. That's it, call off the campaign.

Let's just anoint HRC as the chosen one now.

After all why even vote when we've had a few polls come out.

[artislife]

80. Bad news for Hillary if she falls behind in New Hampshire

I get how this primary thing works.

[Matariki]

87. +1

[Matariki]

86. That's a big "if"

and it's dumb to start a headline with "Bad news" when talking speculations.

[senz]

90. What the heck is the purpose of this OP?

It sounds childish -- sort of "nyaa nyaa nyaa bad for Bernie."

Is that all you have to say?

[sufrommich]

92. It's an article from fivethirtyeight. nt