Polls coming in -Indicating Clinton Won

[Wash. state Desk Jet]

Article title: Sorry Bernie fans : The Polls are Coming In, And It Looks Like Clinton Won The Debate

http://www.vox.com/2015/10/16/9553489/hillary-clinton-debate-won

When legions of DC insiders concluded that Hillary Clinton won the Democratic debate on Tuesday, I was instinctually more skeptical. Insiders had badly misjudged what actual voters thought of some recent debates, and there was a case, I thought, that Sanders — who put in a solid performance and who is still relatively little-known nationally — could have picked up some support.

But now that the post-debate polls have started coming in, we're getting evidence suggesting the insiders got this one right.

NBC News/SurveyMonkey, the Huffington Post/YouGov, and Gravis/One America News have all released polls finding that Clinton won the debate by huge margins among Democratic voters who watched it:


Now, the first two are online polls (though conducted with much more methodologically rigorous techniques than the simple online surveys showing Sanders won), and the third is an overnight robocall poll from a minor firm. But they all ended up with very similar results, and the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll in particular is highly respected in the field as using sound methodological techniques.

It's less clear, however, that Clinton's apparent win actually boosted her level of support. NBC/SurveyMonkey found that she picked up 3 percentage points and Sanders picked up 2 (with Biden being the most hurt). HuffPost/YouGov only asked about whether Clinton or "someone else" should be the nominee, and Clinton picked up 8 points in that question.

https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/V_CrWM6--qYvTH_6l3XN7UyOjJA=/105x0:2891x1857/755x504/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47447616/GettyImages-492637622.0.0.jpg

[Robbins]

1. sorry clinton supporters

but these polls are flawed when you look inside them.

18 to 29 year olds are underpolled and 40 to 64 year olds are heavily polled.

and large number of people polled didn't even watch debate.

you can carry all you want about these so called polls.2 which come from republican leaning gravis and youguv but if you don't poll those who actully watched debate your a joke.especilly if you aren't polling bernie supporters.

[bigdarryl]

2. 18 to 29 year olds don't vote in high numbers like 60 to 85 year olds

In that senior category Hillary in polling very well.Plus the last poll before the debate I saw showed Hillary and Bernie were tied with young voters

[StrongBad]

4. Yeah an internet poll with no methodology allowing multiple votes sure beats this.

And by the way, the internals and sampling are fine and standard.

You're going down the 2012 Unskewed Polls rabbit hole...

[Cali_Democrat]

6. Amazing, isn't it?

I remember 2012 and most people on DU were laughing their asses off at the skewed polls conspiracy theorists.

Now a lot of Bernie supporters are going down the same hole.

[StrongBad]

9. It is unbelievable.

[uponit7771]

35. I think most of this is Republican

[PatrynXX]

55. actually I think Clinton is.

smh

[Robbins]

12. Oh Bullcrap

if most people had actully watched debate and under 40 were of same sample as over 40 then I would have no problem with it.
it's not.

[StrongBad]

15. Ah the old "young people are gonna vote so hard for X".

Last refuge of a worried campaign.

[Robbins]

19. troubled campagin my ass

it's well known a lot of under 40 are going to rallys and donating to bernie.

back in 2008 a lot of under 40 donated and supported obama so dismiss all under 40 at your peril.

[StrongBad]

20. Straight from the Ron Paul school of campaiging.

[Demeter]

51. The Millennials outnumber the Boomers

and they are hurting bad enough to get out and vote. The Boomers are hurting too, and will support the best candidate for themselves AND their children and grandchildren.

Today's demographics will not save a candidate of the 1%. There will not be a bunch of sheep, but a pack of wolves going to the polls.

[upaloopa]

7. I'll be looking for your "Unskewed Polls" web site soon

[workinclasszero]

37. Cool because the vast majority of 18 to 29

year old people don't vote!

Hillary is going to be a great president!

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

3. There are no facts, only interpretations. Friedrich Nietzsche

[DCBob]

5. Yes, its becoming clear that the Bernie clickity clicks were bogus.

Congrats to Hillary.

[AgingAmerican]

8. Asking folks who didn't watch the debate

"Who won the debate?"

Priceless!

[Fawke Em]

13. Who ever the media told them won, of course.

[ejbr]

48. +1 n/t

[dorkzilla]

49. Whats been cracking me up is when the focus groups and all other indicators were pointing

to Bernie, Clinton’s supporters were like “oh this is bunk”, now they’re trotting out polls saying Hillary won and saying how solid they are.

[72DejaVu]

10. Those polls aren't fair

They only let people vote once.

[Snotcicles]

11. I think the only polls that are accurate are those taken during the debates.

Not the polls taken after media analyst's have had a chance to influence the outcome.

[Fawke Em]

14. Yep.

Hell, if I hadn't watched it and only read what the media said about it, I'd think HRC won, too.

[Snotcicles]

16. It's all going according to plan and from experience. nt

[mythology]

17. Do you have any scientific polls from during the debate?

The Facebook poll doesn't count. It is patently dishonest to say that those polls are accurate.

[AgingAmerican]

18. And those debate results are being withheld

No polls coming out from folks who watched. Why would that be? We know the polls were taken. Why aren't they being released? We know why.

How long can DWS keep her finger in the dike before it bursts?

[StrongBad]

21. IF they watched and were convinced by Bernie, it sure doesn't reflect in this poll.

Since most are indicating that they won't vote for him.

[AgingAmerican]

22. Asking folks who didn't watch the debate

"Who won the debate". See anything odd or untoward about that?

[StrongBad]

23. That was a secondary question. Main purpse of poll is "Who will you vote for?"

So, whether they did watch the debate or not, Bernie is trending downward compared to Hillary.

Would it be more fair for you if we go back in time and strap all likely Democratic voters to a chair to watch the debate?

The only truly important question is "Who are you voting for?". Post-debate, we know right now what that answer is for most Dems in NH.

[Robbins]

25. your full of it

nbc's own poll has bernie rising from 29% to 31% nationwide

and of course you and other clinton supporters after dismissing NH only want to cite one NH poll which is dead heat.

[StrongBad]

26. I'm totally willing to wait for more polls and more data to solidify or change my opinion.

But so far there have been 2 post-debate, both showing improvements for Clinton, not Bernie.

Also, 31% in a poll won't win you an election.

[AgingAmerican]

29. So it isn't relevant to who won the debate

nt

[StrongBad]

34. Uh oh friend. Turns out only those who watched the debate were asked who won

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251690927

Time to find a new talking point.

[Robbins]

24. he doesn't care

he continues to dismiss young voters and compare bernie to fringe candiates.Sorry but ron paul never hit as high as bernie does but they can continue this memo and be shocked by reality.

[StrongBad]

27. You better grab UnskewedBerniePolls.com before someone else does.

[Robbins]

31. You'll be crying when bernie wins

after all your attacks on him and his supporters.

I also seem to remember a few polls like gallup and surflock that had 2012 totally wrong.

Yep as lifelong dem sine 1992 no difference between me and karl rove and dick morris.

[StrongBad]

36. Breaking news! It turns out that only people who watched the debate were asked who won!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251690927

[AgingAmerican]

30. "Shocked by reality"

The term is 'Cognitive Dissonance".

[OilemFirchen]

40. I liked the one that started BEFORE the debate.

Can't tell you how many times I voted in that one.

[Plucketeer]

50. I couldn't agree more

It wouldn't have mattered WHAT she said on that stage as long as her utterances were understandable. The money-grubbing media had their "stars" all briefed as to how deep to heap the laudits on Dame Hillary.

[Hortensis]

28. Angry bernistas are right in that these polls are irrelevant. What matters

is how much in additional donations Bernie picked up and in the numbers of additional people now aware of and paying attention to him, particularly those who will be voting.

POLLS DO NOT VOTE, and any people polled who do not vote are also irrelevant.

[Honeylies]

32. The vast majority of those polled didn't watch the debate

As others have mentioned, but here's screenshots:



 

[DCBob]

38. Which doesnt really matter either way..

The bottom line is most people think she won the debate which will translate into stronger support for Hillary in the polls.

[workinclasszero]

33. We knew it all along

But it is so nice to have scientific proof that Hillary won.

And we also have the same proof that she has gained on Bernie because of it in NH.

GO HILLARY!

[sulphurdunn]

46. There is not now nor ever was an opinion poll

that rose to the level of scientific proof and there never will be.

[Wash. state Desk Jet]

39. New Poll: Clinton Deadlocked In New Hampshire

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-clinton-deadlocked-with-sanders-in-new-hampshire/

Hillary Clinton is now in a virtual tie with Sen. Bernie Sanders in the key early voting state of New Hampshire, according to a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll released on Friday.

Clinton leads Sanders 37 percent to 35 percent among likely Democratic primary voters - within the margin of error - the survey found. Vice President Joe Biden -- who's considering a run -- came in third place with 11 percent support.

Several recent polls had shown the Vermont independent had been leading Clinton in the Granite State, which Clinton had won in the 2008 presidential primary.

Nearly half of likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire said Biden shouldn't run for president, compared to 36 percent who want him to jump into the race.

A majority of Democrats polled said Clinton won Tuesday night's Democratic debate in Las Vegas, while less than a quarter said Sanders won.

But even with Clinton's slight lead, she received the lowest rating when voters were asked who they trust the most. About 22 percent said they trust Clinton, 23 percent trust Biden and 33 percent trust Sanders.

And despite the trust issues, more than half of people surveyed said Clinton has the best chance of winning the general election next November. Only 16 percent said Sanders has the best chance and 14 percent said the same about Biden.

[Robbins]

41. Suffolk?

the polling outfit that said obama had no chance to win ohio and Virginia back in 2012

[questionseverything]

57. 500 people polled and only 18 are under 24 years old

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_16_2015_final_marginals.pdf

105 people over the age of 65 polled

and he still only lost by 7 votes,not 7% but 7 votes

[Not Sure]

42. Why do I keep needing to be told Hillary won?

Comes off a little like "don't believe your lying eyes" to me.

[SoapBox]

43. Because if you throw enough crap at the ceiling, eventually some will stick.

It's a tried and true method...by the likes of all sorts of creeps.

[tecelote]

44. BOOM! Hillary supporters love polls today.

If I had time, I'd cut and paste responses when Bernie's polls looked so good.

Neither side can deny, it's a good race. No clear winner.

[Persondem]

45. Clinton was increasing her lead before the debate. Her debate performance should give her

even more momentum. I especially like the following section of the article describing the poll results ....

"Among voters who watched the debate, Clinton opened up a 5-point lead over Sanders. And despite a pushback from Sanders’ fervid supporters who thought his strong debate performance was being overlooked by the media, poll respondents overwhelmingly agreed that Clinton won the debate."

(bolding added)

That puts Clinton's lead outside the MoE.

[stupidicus]

47. Any poll following the MSM saturation with "SHE WON!!!" declarations are suspect

and it's not like that's the only reason why they are.

[fredamae]

52. As we can see with the Known Corporate MSM Manipulation

of information...these too are corporate polls.

Polls are only as reliable as the person who commissions/pays/conducts them are Honest. Do you trust CorpoMedia?

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

53. Again, the only polls I care about are the regular national and state ones that ask

(likely voters) which candidate they intend to vote for.

If Clinton does indeed get a 3 point bounce to Bernie's 2 point bounce, then I'll grant her a 'win', although it really sounds more like with Biden not showing up, more people are simply starting to drop him from consideration, and we always expected more of his support to peel off to her than to Bernie. Still, maintaining or even growing her lead has to be considered a 'win', while a Bernie 'win' would have to be him narrowing the lead she has already.

[PatrynXX]

54. From Vox...

sorry Vox is biased.. CNN Vox same thing

[Marty McGraw]

56. I am Happy

I am Happy for Happy!

Delusional or Otherwise; at least it a source for momentary comfort. And comfort is extraordinarily rare these days.

Proceed...!