2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWho won? Well, we'll have to wait and see what the real polls
tell us, won't we? Online polls are voted in by self-selected people and are always subject to being skewed by activists for one side or another. Real polls, in the aggregate, try very hard to get an accurate picture of what actual voters think. They aren't 100% successful at this, which is why smart people look at aggregates of polls and toss the outlying polls.
Problem is, it takes time after an event like a debate for the polling companies to do their polls. So, we don't get instant feedback from them. However, the debate was Tuesday. it's Thursday. Watch for some poll results from the better pollsters starting tomorrow, and extending through Monday.
The question isn't going to be, "Who won the debate." The question will be about people's intention to vote for candidates in the primaries. We have a nice, long record of the results of asking that question. Who won the debate will be apparent from the direction the polls are moving. That's really the only thing that matters when it comes to gauging public opinion after events.
Online polls are useless. Normal polling isn't necessarily 100% accurate, but in aggregate it gives a pretty good view of the current sentiments of voters.
It's too early to say who won the debate, really. All we get are subjective views from people with agendas. Watch the polls from major pollsters. If a candidate goes up in those polls, while the others go down, you have your answer. The aggregate of public polling is where you will find the answer, but it's not an instantaneous answer. A single poll doesn't provide the answer, either. The aggregate, though, is pretty accurate.
Watch the polls, folks.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)We tout, dismiss, and fight over the methodology and accuracy of the real polls continuously.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)should be common sense, no?
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)Dem2
(8,168 posts)But since polling aggregation has been shown to be exceedingly accurate, I'll take them with their caveats taken into consideration.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)(as evidenced by the wildly inaccurate to plain wrong comments) ... fight over the methodology and accuracy of the real polls.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)so you've never doubted or disputed a poll from a recognized polling organization?
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)And, on that rare, rare occasion, I have state my problem with the polling (or, interpretation/reporting of the polling conclusion) ... I have explained why, using recognized polling standards.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)jberryhill
(62,444 posts)But I'll let you know if they are lies after I see them.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)MineralMan
(146,333 posts)accurate measurement of what people want over time, in the aggregate. Too often we tend to project our own wants on others. That trick never works, since no individual represents everyone. Not by a long shot.