538.com predicts 301 vs 236 Electoral for Obama. So why MSM polls keep telling us so close?

[pink-o]

I really don't trust anyone else like I trust Nate Silver, and he shows Ohio going Big Time for President Obama, despite the other polls that have it undecided. Ask KKKarl Rove. If you lose Ohio, you've basically lost the election.

So we know the MSM wants to keep this a close contest for their ratings, their profit margins, and because they're corporate owned, but my spidey sense tells me this: If the media keeps pushing the meme of this election being a close race, then when these statewide voter suppression laws get passed, the voting machines flip the votes from D to R, and large D communities encounter difficulties like not enough polling places or workers refusing their ballots, the media can pretend was always a tossup and not just a manipulated meme.

We gotta get out there and MAKE SURE 538.com's predictions become reality! Here's the link to Nate Silver in the Times:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Thanks for the link. I usually don't check out Nate's predictions until much closer to

the election, but I am curious to read up on his thoughts about Ryan.

[hollysmom]

2. I think it is the money

When Romney goes into his big spending, how many fools are going to believe that garbage?

[pink-o]

3. Yup. Too many.

FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR....yawn.

[cheezmaka]

13. Good question!

As the saying goes, "there's a FOOL born every minute..."

[grantcart]

4. if you read his articles he exlains why

[elleng]

5. The REAL story is

repugs have never won a presidential race without having won Ohio; Dems could do it without OH. (I'm not predicting or advocating, just setting the record straight.)

[themaguffin]

6. Because some states will be close and that could dramatically impact those #'s

[2pooped2pop]

7. to give credibility to theft

If it's a landslide, no one would believe it when they switch the vote count. But if the msm tells us over and over again that it's neck n neck we will think it is possible that Rmoney won.

[pink-o]

9. That is x-actly what I'm sayin'. N/T

[Jester Messiah]

31. That's one possibility. I think they're just trying to keep themselves relevant.

If everyone thinks the election's in the bag, traffic to news sites slumps, ad revenue dips, and there are frowny faces in the boardroom.

[thecentristword]

8. the PRESS wants a close election

means more viewers and more money

[Rosa Luxemburg]

10. because they want to steal the election

[riverbendviewgal]

11. It is all about money...it's the ratings!!!

and the commercials....Keeps the people tuned in. for those nice money making commercials...

[crimson77]

12. I think Romney has made his path to the White House clear..

He ceased caring about Ohio. Romney's path is now Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. Also I would use caution when saying it is going to be an Obama blowout. All the state polls are relatively close. I see Obama's window at about 300-310 and Romney's at 290-300. Wild card states that could raise Romney's totals New Hampshire,Nevada, Minnesota and Michigan(where the polls have been all over the place).

[davidpdx]

14. Which is an insanely hard path

Assuming he was to win Indian, Florida, NC, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado that would put Romney at 230. That means he's going to have to flip more than 7 states all of which were blue last time. I think Florida will be close.

I agree about using caution though.

[spooky3]

20. There are only 535 total electors.

You might want to recalibrate predictions, or maybe I am not understanding what you mean by each "window."

[crimson77]

23. My bad,

I meant best case for either candidate.

[Ebadlun]

22. Well he's just said fuck you to Florida

[Motown_Johnny]

15. They use national numbers to obscure our Electoral advantage

They need to report on something.

[ailsagirl]

16. I think the polls are spurious-- even those that have Obama ahead

I keep an eye on them but don't put too much stock in them.

[JoePhilly]

17. If the race isn't close, you don't need 100s of TV pundits 24/7 ...

and those are the only jobs the TV pundits care about ... their own.

[dsteve01]

18. Drinking Game!

Come November, I'll setup a drinking game with a couple other like-minded individuals.
For every red state that Obama wins over, we'll take a shot.

I'm sure, by the end of the night, We. Will. Be. Hammered.

[WI_DEM]

19. Actually four recent polls have it 7-10 points in favor of Obama and it was Nate who was...

pooh-poohing those polls.

[mythology]

21. Because most people don't really get the Electoral College

It's far easier to say that the race is X% to Y% nationally. It's pretty rare that the popular vote and the Electoral College vote are too dissimilar. And going over 50 states, or even the 10 to 15 that are reasonably up for grabs would take too much time to discuss in a news segment.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

24. When Romney/Ryan

start drawing somewhere close to the kind of crowds- not just filled with teabaggers- that President Obama drew in 2008 (and typically draws whenever he's out on the trail), I'll maybe kind of start to believe that they may have a chance to win. Romney may have gobs and gobs of money at his disposal but President Obama has a better ground game. Romney can blanket the airwaves with thousands of negative ads attacking President Obama but what can he say about President Obama that hasn't already been screamed at the top of teabagger/Fox News lungs since 2009? They've thrown everything AND the kitchen sink at President Obama and most people still like him even if they are slightly worried about the economy and jobs (which President Obama has little control over, particularly with the Republicans obstructing anything that might help). The only thing that I think that we need to really worry about is getting people to the polls (which Romney's made a little easier with Ryan on the ticket) and making sure our voters can vote. If we can minimize voter suppression/disenfranchisement, I think that we'll do o.k.

[Doctor Jack]

25. Because if we think the election is going to be close, we will follow the daily coverage

And then Wolf Blitzer gets a fat paycheck and a new boat.

[SheilaT]

26. I believe that most of the polling simply looks at the raw numbers

of who prefers which candidate, as if the president were elected by popular vote (keeping in mind, of coursed, that no one bothers to count the unpopular votes).

While it will never be a good idea to think the election is in the bag, I honestly think in the end it won't even be close in the popular vote.

[regnaD kciN]

27. Even Nate is saying...

...that the popular vote is going to be very, very close (and he distrusts the latest polls showing Obama's lead increasing).

[Comrade Funk]

28. RATINGZZZ

The want rating

[UCmeNdc]

29. Voter Suppression is why!

This is why the MSM keeps saying it is a close election. The GOP plans to suppress the Democratic voters.

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9466

[pink-o]

30. It's both ratings and voter suppression...

One hardly matters. But the other we simply have to stop!