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2016 Postmortem

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Godhumor

(6,437 posts) Tue Oct 13, 2015, 11:24 PM Oct 2015

So how did the predictive markets respond? (Hint: Biden lost)

Chances of being the Democratic Nominee:

Clinton - 71% (+3)
Sanders - 15% (+4)
Biden - 13% (-5)
O'Malley 1% (Unchanged)
Everyone else - 0%

Chance to be president:
Clinton - 44% (+2)
Bush - 11%
Rubio - 10%
Sanders - 10% (+4)
Trump - 7%
Biden - 6% (-4)

First time since speculation on Biden heated up that Bernie has a higher chance than him. I think, if anything, this debate leads to Biden deciding not to run.

Numbers from predictive market aggregator at
http://www.predictwise.com

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So how did the predictive markets respond? (Hint: Biden lost) (Original Post) Godhumor Oct 2015 OP
Bumpity bump bump n/t Godhumor Oct 2015 #1
Sanders numbers are to high but otherwise it locks great. moobu2 Oct 2015 #2
MSNBC has the same view Renew Deal Oct 2015 #3
Yup, I think that is the only thing changing coming out of the debates Godhumor Oct 2015 #4

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
4. Yup, I think that is the only thing changing coming out of the debates
Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #3)
Tue Oct 13, 2015, 11:49 PM
Oct 2015

Biden is going to choose to sit this one out.

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