Poll: 100 Days Out: From Serious Vulnerability to a Wave Election

[WI_DEM]

Less than 100 days until the election, the latest battleground survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps shows Democrats with an advantage in the most vulnerable tier of Republican districts. The first Democracy Corps survey of the reapportioned battleground shows Republican incumbents in serious and worsening trouble. The 2012 campaign has just turned the corner on 100 days and the message of this survey could not be clearer: these 54 battleground Republicans are very vulnerable and many will lose their seats.

These members, on average, are barely ahead of their challengers and are as vulnerable as the incumbents in 2006, 2008 and 2010. Those elections we now know crystallized earlier—in 2010, incumbent vulnerability translated into anti-Democratic voting by March as health care came to a close in 2010. These incumbents are equally vulnerable but have not yet paid the price for the Ryan budget and their priorities, but it is clear that their support is now falling

These Republican incumbents now hold a marginal edge against their unnamed challengers—47 to 45 percent. In the most competitive half of the battleground – the 27 most vulnerable Republican-held seats, where Democrats lead the named incumbent by 6 points, 50 to 44 percent—two-thirds could lose their seats. While Democrats start behind in the vote in the second-tier districts, a balanced battle on the Ryan budget and tax cuts erodes the Republican advantage by two-thirds, getting Democrats to within 3 points in these districts.

A number of things have come together to make these incumbents vulnerable. Obama has made significant gains in these districts—he edges Romney on the ballot by a 2-point margin—just two points short of his margin in these districts in 2008. The Republican brand is also in trouble in these Republican seats, and the party image is growing increasingly negative. Finally, these incumbents themselves are very weak on the traditional measures of incumbency, like fighting for people in their own district.

http://www.democracycorps.com/Battleground-Surveys/july-battleground-survey/

[Proud Liberal Dem]

1. The House has barely been in session (Republicans don't seem to like working hard)

since 2010 and they have delivered absolutely NOTHING in regards to jobs- despite them being their reason for running/being elected in 2010. Plus, they're on the record for voting for the Ryan Budget-TWICE!!! Between these two things, as well as the Debt Ceiling fight last year, I can't possibly imagine why they're increasingly unpopular. Good riddance teabaggers!

[Cosmocat]

3. It has been a joke

the House can be a zoo at times, but this House has been putrid.

I still remain skeptical of the general populations ability to pay attention enough to even know what these clowns have done the last two years.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. I'm skeptical as well

but neither the current Congress (which, of course, includes the House) nor Republicans in general are riding a tide of high approval either. Plus, it's a Presidential Election year, so down-ballot voting should be much better for us than in 2010.

[Cosmocat]

6. I hope you are right

The house, if it was a dozen or so seats, then I would feel good about their chances of getting the House back, but 25 or so is a big push when you have the media trumpeting how putrid the economy is and not giving BO the credit he deserves for doing a pretty darn good job to this point ...

How in the fricken world this country saw fit to have that big swing two years ago to put 50 or so republican morons into the House is beyond me.

The senate, just that year when they are defending more than the Rs and the states are not great states - like Missouri - when they barely hold that chamber to begin with.

Elizabeth Warren HAS to beat Scott Brown.

[Harald Baldr]

5. indeed

The general population is blissfully ignorant of this sad state of affairs, and that's just the way congress likes it

[cheezmaka]

2. Somebody go get the "broom"

It's time to "clean House" again...