"Gallup: Romney Converting More 2008 Voters Than Obama" - TPM LiveWire

[NRaleighLiberal]

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/gallup-romney-converting-more-2008-voters-than-obama

"A new analysis from Gallup shows that President Obama is losing more support to presumtpive Republican nominee Mitt Romney from his 2008 total than the president is taking from Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) 2008 voters. The data shows that Obama is retaining 86 percent of his 2008 voters and taking 5 percent of McCain’s 2008 haul. Romney is converting 9 percent of Obama’s 2008 supporters and retaining 92 percent of McCain’s base. From Gallup:

The vast majority of U.S. voters are remaining consistent in their voting preferences between 2008 and 2012, be it for Barack Obama or the Republican presidential candidate. But loyalty to Obama is slightly less than loyalty to the Republican candidates, resulting in a more competitive race at this point than in the final 2008 results."

snip

___________________________

still early, a bit ho hum on this myself.

[Ian David]

1. New study shows it is cheaper to register new voters than to appeal to swing voters.

New study shows it is cheaper to register new voters than to appeal to swing voters.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/125164738

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. +1. n/t

[Bluenorthwest]

3. Cheaper and easier, the entire 'we must appeal to coin toss voters' routine was always a ploy

New voters grow like weeds around here.

[joshcryer]

25. Utterly fascinating.

The tide is turning.

[WI_DEM]

4. Really? then Obama still wins

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. ...and another +1. n/t

[Robbins]

7. Obama

He beat Mccan by nearly 7 points.Plus any 2008 voters Romney may be getting Is offset by face he's not keeping all the Mccain
voters.

If It's Obama 52 to 48 or Obama 51 to 49 In popular vote Obama still wins al Romney Has done Is narrow It.

[Scuba]

6. Report: Winger pollsters, media set the stage for stealing the election.

"See? We told you it was close."

[sandyshoes17]

27. My thoughts also

They have to keep up the illusion that Romney could win. He's losing ground in the polls, it has to stay plausible that he could win to steal it.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

8. It's still early.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Well duh...

Unless I'm reading this wrong - but why wouldn't he? Obama won by a 7-point margin in '08 - winning support from many voters who threw their support to Bush four years prior. It was always going to be harder for Obama to keep that same margin. So, even if Obama wins by 5 points nationally, it means Romney did better, on the whole, than Obama compared to '08.

I don't know why this is a surprise?

[speedoo]

10. Duh.

Predictable, at this point.

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. Translation: Poll #s are so dismal for Romney that Gallup has to invent new metrics

to make it interesting.

"Why, yes, Obama is beating Romney's ass, but we found this interesting statistic that makes it appear that Romney is doing better than he is!" No shit. What's next, an ominous cover story noting that Romney might pick up Indiana?

[Drunken Irishman]

12. It's like that statistic that Kerry won more votes than any challenger against an incumbent...

Only problem is, of course, Bush won more votes.

[JoePhilly]

13. Anything to find a way to keep making the claim ... "Its NECK AND NECK!!"

[progressivebydesign]

14. that's my take on it. They have to justify their crappy existence.

I really doubt HIGHLY that Romney is taking mcCain voters... remember these "polls" are based on a group of 800 people that answered the phone. Don't know about you, but I'm so sick of political calls that i NEVER pick up the phone, cell or otherwise, for pollsters or unknowns. But many older folks still do..

PLUS.. there is a HUGE issue of people saying that they voted for President Obama and now won't as a scam. I know many right wingers that falsely identify themselves as former Obama voters, which they were not. It makes a better narrative.

I'd want to know HOW they're determining this, frankly, because a poll of 800-1000 people, and it's republicans that are saying they've abandoned the President... I smell bullshit. Even with Palin, Romney is the worst fucking candidate in a loong time.

[Pizz]

19. Right!

It looks so good its scary. Perhaps a fucked up story
is a good thing. We still need to be vigilant and not let our
guard down.

[bemildred]

15. Sounds like meaningless mumbo jumbo. nt

[demwing]

16. Obama - better today than 4 years ago on RCP

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/election_2012_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html

2008
Obama - 46.9
McCain - 43.4

2012
Obama - 47.4
Romney- 44.6

Obama is averaging slightly better support now than he did 4 years ago today.

[LiberalFighter]

17. How many of those they claim Rmoney is converting are dead?

[NYC Liberal]

18. Wait a minute: 9 percent of Republicans voted for Obama in 2008.

Romney is converting...9 percent of 2008 Obama voters.

Hmm.



http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1

[Proud Liberal Dem]

20. More "soft Obama support" for Romney to pluck?

I think that some Obama voters voted for him in 2008 primarily over McCain's selection of Palin for VP but with her not being a factor in 2010 and during this election- and being easily misled/mis-informed by Fox News about President Obama's alleged "Socialist agenda" and/or "Government takeover of health care" some of the "flock" went home in 2010 and are more or less back to their Republican roots. Of course, according to even some conservative pollsters, President Obama is INCREASING his strength among REPUBLICANS in places like Ohio, so................

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Chances are, Romney is increasing his numbers among Republicans in Republican states...

Here in Utah, Obama did better than any Democratic candidate since LBJ in '64 and I doubt that will be the case in November. Romney is probably increasing his totals in states like Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Alabama, Indiana and other right-leaning states that were a bit more competitive for the Democrats than they were four years prior (or in Indiana's case, a lot more competitive).

Romney is only regaining a small segment of the population that, for whatever reason, decided to go vote for Obama in '08, even though they rarely support Democratic presidents. Even then, it's not by huge numbers. Obama won by more than 7 points in '08, so, even if he won by 5 nationally, it would reason that Romney gained more of the '08 vote than McCain and Obama gained less than he did four years ago - a net gain for Romney, but not even close to what he needs to win.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

22. Good point DI

The way that this story reads, one might think that President Obama is losing support from people whom would be more inclined to vote for him, which I doubt is the case.

[Kteachums]

23. I don't believe a bit of this! Obama isn't loosing that many voters!

[Amonester]

24. They haven't watched the debates yet...

Robmehood is not going to look good in any of 'em three.

[canEHdian]

26. Converting them to What?

Dog abuse? The worship of tall trees? What?

[emulatorloo]

28. Remind me, how's Romney doing in the swing states?

Not so well if I remember correctly.