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NRaleighLiberal

(60,014 posts)
Sun Aug 5, 2012, 08:23 PM Aug 2012

I like the trend at the 538 poll site - seems to have updated today....

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Nov 6 forecast - 300 EV, 72.4% chance of winning.

Nowcast has it at 77.1% chance.

Many a mile to go, but the trend is lovely to behold.

You just keep those taxes secret, Mitt Wit...drip...drip...drip....
11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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I like the trend at the 538 poll site - seems to have updated today.... (Original Post) NRaleighLiberal Aug 2012 OP
Is Mitt, Barry Goldwater repeat all over again? safeinOhio Aug 2012 #1
Noticed that too, eh? thevoiceofreason Aug 2012 #2
It also interesting to use the 'nowcast' button to contrast election day versus today. grantcart Aug 2012 #3
I just saw how many states Romney is likely to win and it is sad... Kalidurga Aug 2012 #4
I read 538.com obsessively four years ago. SheilaT Aug 2012 #5
While the overall result of the poll makes me happy Mutt22 Aug 2012 #6
it's early yet! NRaleighLiberal Aug 2012 #8
Yep -- as long as Mitt stonewalls, he'll be in for a rocktivity Aug 2012 #7
That is great. I'm more concerned about the Senate and House races. progressoid Aug 2012 #9
Pedal the Metal Jeff In Milwaukee Aug 2012 #10
great news!! mgcgulfcoast Aug 2012 #11

thevoiceofreason

(3,440 posts)
2. Noticed that too, eh?
Sun Aug 5, 2012, 09:04 PM
Aug 2012

And we are 13 weeks, 2 days from election day - in Texas, we are 10 weeks, one day from Early Voting.

Heh.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
3. It also interesting to use the 'nowcast' button to contrast election day versus today.
Sun Aug 5, 2012, 09:25 PM
Aug 2012

Interesting that the Indiana poll from Ras got a big yawn from Nate.

There is very little movement in swing states and not as much drama as you would expect except for VA, FL, IA and CO.

If Obama takes NC it will only be because of the convention and if he takes NC it will close all EC doors for a Romney win.

I go there every day to see what he has added.

Kalidurga

(14,177 posts)
4. I just saw how many states Romney is likely to win and it is sad...
Sun Aug 5, 2012, 09:29 PM
Aug 2012

There are a lot of low population states that will likely go for Romney. I don't know why that is, it is very strange. It is almost as if isolation causes some kind of mental disconnect with facts or something. Anyway, 4 EVs here and there is all Romney is going to get the high EV states are going to be Blue.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
5. I read 538.com obsessively four years ago.
Sun Aug 5, 2012, 09:38 PM
Aug 2012

It was the best look into our election I've ever seen.

What I'm right now remembering best is that the 538 people were out visiting campaign headquarters for both campaigns in October, and basically the McCain campaign offices were dead, nothing happening, while the Obama ones were buzzing and busy.

Best political site ever.

Mutt22

(76 posts)
6. While the overall result of the poll makes me happy
Sun Aug 5, 2012, 09:52 PM
Aug 2012

I am always depressed to see my own state of Indiana as a win for Rmoney.

progressoid

(49,990 posts)
9. That is great. I'm more concerned about the Senate and House races.
Sun Aug 5, 2012, 11:58 PM
Aug 2012

I've always been confident that the President will get re-elected (barring some calamity). It's the local races that worry me.

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