New NBC-Marist Polls have HRC leading in Iowa and Bernie leading in NH
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 21%, followed by Carly Fiorina at 16%, Jeb Bush at 11%, Marco Rubio at 10% and Ben Carson at 10%.
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by nine points, 48% to 39%
http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/04/trump-leads-in-new-hampshire-3/
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 24%, followed by Ben Carson at 19%, Carly Fiorina at 8%, Jeb Bush at 7%, Ted Cruz at 6%, Marco Rubio at 6% and Bobby Jindal at 6%.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 47 percent followed by Bernie Sanders at 36%.
http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/04/trump-leads-in-iowa-2/
= new reply since forum marked as read
Technically (and actually) Hillary has always had the lead in Iowa.
On April 30th when Sanders first announced, the RealClearPolitics aggregate polls had her ahead by 54.2%.
Clinton 60.8 to Sanders 6.6
By September 15 however, RCP was reporting that aggregate spread had closed to 0%.
Clinton 37 to Sanders 37
That statistical tie may have been a bit over-optimistic in Sanders' favor however. There were 2 polls in early Sept which had Bernie ahead by 1 point (Quinnipiac), and 10 points (CBS/YouGov) respectively, but the CBS poll sure looked like an outlier and even so, the aggregate spreads have never actually shown him in the lead. The current spread of Clinton +6.3, based on 4 polls released over the past 30 days, is much more likely. But even that still includes the questionable CBS/YouGov data, so I believe that she's actually up by somewhat more than that.
It can't be denied that Sanders has come on VERY strong however, much the same as he did in NH, and she has upped her burn rate a bunch to not completely lose her grip over Iowa as well. It's a race, and you have to respect Sanders' truly remarkable run at it. He's all but completely closed a 54 pt gap in just 4 months, and/but the Caucus is still 4 months away of course.
Nevertheless, she has always been ahead. She's still ahead. She hasn't "taken the lead"... and she hasn't even "re-taken the lead". Nor is it certain that Sanders will ever overtake her. Just continue to watch the trends, and don't be misled by any single or "latest" poll. This is and always has been her race to lose, and Bernie is not going away.
Stay tuned friends.
