2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew poll gives HRC lead in Iowa
for what it's worth...
Gravis Marketing survey in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 19%, followed by Ben Carson at 14%, Ted Cruz at 11%, Carly Fiorina at 10%, Marco Rubio at 9% and Jeb Bush at 7%.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 40%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 31% and Joe Biden at 12%.
http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/02/trump-and-clinton-lead-in-iowa/
Here's some more statistics about this poll:
http://www.oann.com/polliowa/
liberal N proud
(60,339 posts)riversedge
(70,284 posts)Madam President and 10 others follow
Mahlers5th ?@CarolynRodham 1h1 hour ago
Ipsos/Reuters 2016 National Democratic Primary (9/26-9/30)
HRC 46%
Sanders 25%
Hill up 6%, Sanders down 5% since Ipsos poll 9/19-9/23
Melissa G
(10,170 posts)So I did a quick google and this popped up. I remember more but do not have time for a full search.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/05/21/the_worst_poll_in_america.html
Update for the DU debunking that I was remembering..
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/07/1141340/-Gravis-Marketing-Exposed-As-A-Fraud-via-Democratic-Underground#
slipslidingaway
(21,210 posts)DU Exclusive: Gravis Marketing exposed as a fraud Part I
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021489250
Gravis Marketing Exposed II. The Evisceration of Douglas Kaplan
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1539890
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/iowa/
kenn3d
(486 posts)Thanks WI_DEM,
I think you're right to say "FWIW", this one might be a bit marginal. But it's nice to have something new in the way of an IA poll.
Comparing it to the previous Gravis Marketing Iowa Caucus Poll does seem to indicate a familiar trend however:
Last Gravis IA Poll 9/1 (30days ago):
Hillary Clinton 45%, Bernie Sanders 17% and Joe Biden 13%.
IOW, in the last month:
Clinton drops -5%
Sanders gains +14%
Biden more or less unchanged at -1%
Fearless
(18,421 posts)From the poll.
demwing
(16,916 posts)A single poll is just a snap shot, but the trend is your friend.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)This is republican pollster but even gravis has seen movement for bernie since last gravis iowa poll.Bernie was In the teens in august and now at 31%
Gothmog
(145,489 posts)ram2008
(1,238 posts)If she doesn't win it she's in big, big trouble.
I think Bernie will win there just as Obama did in 08.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Hillary can pull half the delegates in NH, half in Iowa and all of South Carolina and the primary is over.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)If Hillary loses both states she'll lose ground nationally and the party will be in a panic. It won't be over because every loss she has would chip away at her support. A loss in Iowa and New Hampshire would be 1 month of negative press of Clintons failing campaign "losing to a socialist" and a month of positive press for Bernie.
Baltimore18
(45 posts)Last time, she did not do well in the caucus states.
But I don't agree she'll be in big, big trouble.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Any chance he has a winning this thing hinges on early wins in Iowa and NH to get some momentum because SC and forward are going to be very very tough for Mr Sanders.