Here's a weird thought about Joe Biden's role:
Just sitting around thinking about why Biden would want to run for President, despite his ambivalence, something came to me that could possibly explain it. It's more than a little bit cynical, but here goes. Punch as many holes in it as you can, please:
Biden and Clinton are pretty much cut from the same cloth, politically. They probably would have very similar goals for the next four or eight years. It appears that most of the polling numbers that have accrued to Biden have come at the expense of Clinton's numbers. Her polling percentages have gone down with the speculation that Biden might run. Bernie Sanders' poll numbers have stayed about the same or have risen a bit on a nationwide basis, anyway.
What if all this is intentional? What if, a day or two before the first debate, Biden announces that he's not going to run after all? What if that was the plan all along? Here's what would occur if that happened, I'm pretty sure:
The debate would take place, with the major news being that Biden had dropped out dominating the news. Following the debate, there would be a heavy spate of polling, as there will be whatever happens. But, the pollsters would take Biden's name off the list. Suddenly, those being polled wouldn't see Biden as an option in the polls. Odds are that most of them would choose Clinton, as they had done before Biden's name was bandied about. The result? A huge kick to Clinton's polling numbers. Suddenly, she'd be far ahead of Sanders, nationwide. Never mind Iowa and New Hampshire, although Clinton would make gains there, too.
Now, many people would certainly understand that it was Biden's withdrawal that cause this jump, but many others would simply see it as a switch in the momentum. Perhaps, actually, it would be a major change in momentum. As time passed, Biden's withdrawal would become less and less important as the campaign continued
So, what if this was all part of a plan, strategically designed to flip momentum simultaneously with the first Democratic primary debate? Far-fetched? Maybe. But politics is a strange critter, indeed.
Maybe I'm way off base in my speculating with this. Maybe Biden won't make any announcement at all before the debate. Maybe he'll announce that he is, indeed, going to run. Or maybe he just won't say anything at all. If that's his decision, he'll still lose some polling numbers, just because people are pissed off that he didn't declare, one way or another. Or, perhaps, my scenario above will play out.
I guess we'll see in a couple of weeks. Let me know what you think about this possibility, and we can compare notes later.
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