No, pundits, Hillary Clinton isn't collapsing

[ronnykmarshall]

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0927-trippi-clinton-strength-20150927-story.html



I'm sure this will be ripped to shreds.

[99th_Monkey]

1. Well, for starters, Clinton's national lead over Bernie just shrunk to 7% (not 15%)

Sanders is gaining on Hills faster than Hill-shills can keep up with.

That says something.

[Metric System]

12. In one poll. Polls are all over the place.

[AgingAmerican]

13. She was at 80% in May

Her support is about half what it was then. Freefall.

[Metric System]

14. It would be unrealistic to think she would have maintained those kind of numbers. Simply unheard of.

[Armstead]

18. That's not what was said at the time

Once Elizabeth Warren was out of the way, and it looked like Biden was out of the way, the assumption was that it was hers, and that any otehr candidate would merely be a token opposition. And someone like Bernie might be lucky to get 5 percent limited to the "angry left."

[riversedge]

22. maybe the ASSumption was from the msm but NOT from Hillary camp

Tweet

Unless or until Biden decides to run, Clinton doesn't face much of a challenge

[Hortensis]

25. Nor was it from election experts, like Nate Silver, who predicted standard drops BEFORE

the election season began, as the season began, and during the season.

In spite of Bernie's really impressive advance from nothing, they also all predict Clinton will win the primary.

BTW, the NY Times has a "permanent" article on its Politics page, "Presidential Polls, How to Avoid Getting Fooled." Look in the middle at a vertical column of useful articles on the election and then follow it to the bottom.

Or just click on this link.
[link:http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/29/upshot/2016-presidential-election-polls-how-to-follow.html?ref=politics|

[riversedge]

31. Thanks I will. I admit--I get

excited at times and need some good advice.

[Hortensis]

35. Useful, but I imagine you already know most of it, Riversedge.

Some are new to elections, however.

[riversedge]

37. Actually I did but they are useful reminders--esp if and when

I need a boost But I printed it off and put on bulletin board (saved ink and did just the text). It was nice to have a bit of conversation on the board. Thank you very much.

[djean111]

2. Yawn. Already been posted. Earlier. n/t

[ronnykmarshall]

3. and right on time ...............

[djean111]

5. Just old news, is all - http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251626986

In every way.

[Motown_Johnny]

4. Clinton supporters have been telling us this for months...

...yet her numbers continue to decline.

Back in April the ratio of Clinton supporters to Sanders supporters was about 7:1
In May it was more like 6:1
By the end of June it was closer to 4:1
Late July saw it at around 3:1
Even in late August it was still at 2:1
Now it is around 1.5:1
Today's NBC/WSJ poll has it nearly tied with Biden in it and slightly below a 1.5:1 ratio with him out of it

We will start to believe she isn't collapsing when her numbers stop going down. Until then, this is just wishful thinking on your part.

[oasis]

6. It's obvious Joe Trippi never consulted the experts at DU.

[Motown_Johnny]

8. The only numbers he presented were women and AA

and they are Hillary's strongest demographics at this time.

The fact that he needs to cherry pick things like this in order to support his theory is very telling.

Feel free to go through the numbers I presented in post #4 and tell me why his 2 demographics are more important than the race as a whole?

"Collapsing" is a relative term, so it can be argued that she isn't collapsing. She is steadily declining though. That can't be argued against.

[HooptieWagon]

28. She's losing women.

Her firewall is AAs, but her support there is even slipping.
And she's unelectable in the GE.

[riversedge]

24. Chuckle.

[Vinca]

7. Well, today I heard that Michael Bloomberg is contemplating getting in as an Independent.

That's pretty much an indication that things aren't well on either the Democratic or Republican sides. You have the total nutjobs on the right, of course, and on the left you have a man who would be wonderful but is labeled a socialist in the bad sense of the word and a woman who is being painted as a criminal with a potential indictment in her future. It probably isn't a good idea to stick your head in the sand and pretend everything is going as planned because it isn't.

[Trajan]

27. It's a brand new day ...

After a decades-long walloping the Middle Class has received, they are ready and willing to pull the lever for Bernie, the DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST ...

Repeat after me:

Bernie Sanders is a DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST!
Bernie Sanders is a DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST!
Bernie Sanders is a DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST!

There ... Don't you feel better now ?

This is our dividing line, between you and me .... Enough IS enough - American voters are ready for FDR ... They are ready for Democratic Socialism, especially when they realize we already live in a Democratic Socialist nation, and have for 85 years ...

In the end : I will put up my Bernie Sanders against your Hillary Clinton and let the chips fall where they may ...

I am confident that Bernie is gonna win this .... It's a whole new paradigm .... Welcome to it

[Vinca]

38. ?????? I'm a far left Bernie supporter.

[Evergreen Emerald]

9. Poll numbers always get closer once the competition starts.

Clinton was one of the most trusted women in the politics before the race started. The reduction in poll numbers is natural.

Further, the lying republican attacks are working because 1. of the lazy lemming electorate as well as 2. the weasels who will use the lies to their advantage (look in the mirror).

No one said it would be easy. Clinton has said numerous times that she will need to work for the position. At this point, Sanders has not had to work hard at all. But that will change.

[cherokeeprogressive]

10. "...56% of Democratic voters are women, who prefer Clinton to her rivals."

Chew on that for a while, then get back to us with whether or not you think it's a credible statement.

[djean111]

32. As a woman, I just really spit it out. I would never vote for anyone based on gender.

I would have supported Liz Warren if she was running instead of Bernie.
I will not vote for Biden if Warren is going to be his VP pick, though.
I also don't know any women who support Hillary. So, whatever.

[NorthCarolina]

11. She's just stuck with the fallout ALL insider establishment politicians are

experiencing this election cycle.

[Bluenorthwest]

15. A quick Trippi through Joe's resume proves he knows a winner...

Worked on Presidential campaigns for Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale, Gary Hart, Dick Gephardt, Jerry Brown, Howard Dean and John Edwards so obviously he's like magic sauce.
He did help get Goodluck Jonathan elected in Nigeria. Big win there.

[cherokeeprogressive]

16. Teddy, Walter, Gary, Dick, Jerry, Howard, and John are among the best Presidents we've had.

What's not to love about Joe Trippi?

[TSIAS]

17. I was there in 2003

I was part of the Dean campaign and he talked to supporters at a state convention in Florida. It wasn't about enthusiasm or anything like that. Basically, it was all about raising $100M (which was a lot back then) and being able to compete financially with the GOP.

I'm sure, like many people, he thinks Clinton is the best option because she has a limitless pool of financial resources. I just disagree and think the issues are more important than fundraising prowess.

[MisterP]

19. it's getting ripped to shreds because it's wrong and delirious in a sad kinda way

[Warren DeMontague]

20. Joe Trippi?

Lol

[riversedge]

21. Unless or until Biden decides to run, Clinton doesn't face much of a challenge ...

I found this tweet--but it is from the OP article. TRUE.


The pundits have it wrong. Unless or until Biden decides to run, Clinton doesn't face much of a challenge http://fw.to/2PciwT #uniteblue

[leftofcool]

23. Sanders is basically irrelevant.

[ronnykmarshall]

29. *GASP*

[url=https://flic.kr/p/vVTbRL][img][/img][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/vVTbRL]


Best watch yourself ....... you might be reported to the "unbiased" jury system.

[leftofcool]

33. Don't we have a room somewhere with a fainting couch?

[ronnykmarshall]

36. Fan me!

[url=https://flic.kr/p/ydWQ42][img][/img][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/ydWQ42]

[PatrickforO]

30. I don't think he is. I think he may win.

But beyond that, his message is not irrelevant at all. His call for a political revolution is not irrelevant. His 40 year record of consistent progressive positions is not irrelevant. Nor is his refusal of super PAC money. Nor are his massive and growing daily numbers of supporters who are reaching out to others in person and through social media.

Nope. Sanders is quite relevant. We'll see how he does come 2016, won't we?

[HooptieWagon]

34. Hold on to that thought.

I'll bookmark it.

[underpants]

26. We are in the stretching out faze

They haven't even lined up. The race hasn't started.