NBC/WSJ Poll: HRC loses ground; Bernie within single digits! HRC: 42%, Sanders 35%, Biden 17%

[ram2008]

...And on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has lost ground to Bernie Sanders — she leads him by just seven points with Joe Biden in the race, and 15 points without the vice president. That's down from Clinton's 34-point lead over Sanders in July and her whopping 60-point lead in June.

In the GOP race, Trump is the first choice of 21 percent of Republican primary voters — followed by Carson at 20 percent and Rubio and Fiorina tied at 11 percent each.

...When Biden - who is still mulling a campaign - is removed from the field, Clinton's lead over Sanders grows to 15 points, 53 percent to 38 percent, which suggests that Biden's entry would hurt Clinton more than Sanders.

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-2016-gop-race-n433991

With Biden in the race its within single digits, with him out of the race its 53-38, which I believe is Bernie Sanders' best showing yet. The 30% threshold has been overcome it seems, and if Bernie wins Iowa and NH it's pretty clear he would be able to pull in the lead.

Another interesting thing I found reported from the WSJ:

The Democratic race still turns on a sharp divide between white and nonwhite voters. Half of all white Democratic primary voters favor Mr. Sanders, compared with the 41% who prefer Mrs. Clinton.

But three-in-four nonwhite Democrats list the former secretary of state as their top pick for the nomination. A quarter of those nonwhite voters prefer Mr. Biden when he is included in the poll, and Mrs. Clinton’s support drops to 59%

http://www.wsj.com/articles/carson-fiorina-sanders-gain-ground-in-their-parties-primary-races-poll-shows-1443358803.

The internals of the poll haven't been released yet, but it seems Hillary still has a PoC advantage; however, it also appears to be narrowing. A 75-25% gap is much less than the 90-10 gap we've seen before.

[restorefreedom]

1. go bernie go! nt

[cantbeserious]

2. "I Believe In The Good Things Coming" - Good Medicine For The People - Go Bernie Go

eom

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

3. Hah! Another 'ceiling' for Sanders smashed through.

It's odd how his 'caps' keep getting higher and higher.

[HereSince1628]

4. One of the most steeply sloped plateaus in political history!

This go round the narrative isn't creating it's own reality.

[Fawke Em]

43. Moving goalposts is hard.

[pa28]

46. I recall quite a few DU experts patiently explaining why Bernie must top out at 20%

I wonder if they'd be kind enough to explain what went wrong with their theories.

[billhicks76]

59. Hillary Is Part Of The Bush Family

What kind of sheep would vote for someone that close to that benous family. She will no doubt do their bidding if elected.

[virtualobserver]

5. The first debate may put him in the lead

The Energizer movement....it keeps growing and growing and growing.....

[LovingA2andMI]

40. The Natives Are Getting Nervous.....

#GotBerniesBack and #GoBernieGo!!!

[Le Taz Hot]

6. It's called Trajectory.

This is looking VERY good.

[Mass]

7. As much as I like the results, the MOE is 6.1 %. Not a serious poll.

Of course, this does not mean that they are farther apart. They could be closer. But this is hardly a serious poll.

[kenn3d]

12. A serious poll?

The NBC/WSJ polls are graded A- by: http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
The whole population sample they survey is @1000 adults (MoE +/-3.1%)

The following is from the prior NBC/WSJ PDF (July 30th)
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/15313JulyNBCWSJPOLL.pdf

The margin of error for 1,000 interviews among Adults is ±3.10%
The margin of error for 252 interviews among Republican Primary Voters is ±6.17%
The margin of error for 253 interviews among Democratic Primary Voters is ±6.16%

I hope that others with more knowledge of statistics may speak to this further, but I don't think it is true to say this is not a serious poll.

[left-of-center2012]

56. "Not a serious poll"

Polls showing Bernie doing well are not considered serious by his main opponent.

[Mass]

58. Actually, Sanders is gaining, but I am not going to relie of a 6.1 % of MOE for that.

Just trie to understand what a MOE of 6.1 % and a spread of 7 % tells you. Not much, in reality.



But, some here may also need to read. I said I liked the results (Sanders gaining on Clinton). This does not mean I am going to think that a poll than has 6,1% of MOE is serious. It is only for entertainment purposes.

[Le Taz Hot]

13. This early on, the name of the game

is trajectory. Bernie has a steady upwards trajectory and Hillary's is downward. These aren't spurts and sputters, the trend has been steady since June.

[Mass]

49. True, but this has nothing to do with this specific poll. There is no doubt that Clinton is losing

ground, but this specific poll is not serious because too small.

[jfern]

51. It's a serious poll, it just has a large MOE

And so shouldn't be seen as narrowing down where they are too much by itself.

[RoccoR5955]

8. The Bernmentum keeps on going.

Like the Energizer Bunny, the energy for Bernie just keeps going and going.

Like I said a while back, once people hear Bernie's story, they shall support him, and he shall win the nomination. Once the whole country finds out about him and his story, he shall win the general election in a landslide like never before seen in US history!

This 30+ years or Reaganism, and trickle-down is coming to an end. It's about time!

But it's not gonna happen if we all don't go out and do something.

[SoapBox]

9. Go Bernie!

[BlueWaveDem]

10. Dems got a good primary race on their hands.

Over in the clown car Trump seems to be pulling away.

[sabrina 1]

15. Which is great for us since Bernie is wiping the floor with Trump in the polls. 57% to 37% in NH.

And if there is ever a debate between Capitalist Trump who is buying his election and Bernie, it will be a historic lesson in FACTS for the American people which will go down in history. The temper tantrum throwing 2 yr old facing off against the mature adult with experience in handling toddlers.

[John Poet]

11. Hot Damn.

Glad yet AGAIN that 'the Sanders Surge Is Over' !

[bvf]

16. Yeah, I think I read somewhere around here

less than a week ago that he had already "peaked."

Looks like he's peaked some more.

[thereismore]

44. He keeps on peaking. nt

[Motown_Johnny]

14. But...but.. he had peaked! The surge had ended!!!

I read it here over and over again.

Silly NBC/WSJ. They should just come here for the truth about what is going on.













There will also be a new round of emails released on Wednesday. I don't expect any big news there, but it will still be covered for a few cycles. I am predicting that her numbers tick down a little more after those cycles, never to recover. I also attribute the current tick downwards to the recent news that the FBI have recovered her personal emails.

There really may be nothing to that story but it is eroding her soft support. The hard core supporters are not going anywhere, but we don't know how many of them there are. I think when we have emails released and her numbers are not effected we will see just where the bottom is. Maybe that will be this week, maybe next month. Maybe not for several months. Time will tell.

[sabrina 1]

19. Actually I don't think the email thing has anything to do with her numbers. Bernie is the reason

for that. His message, once heard, along with the proof re his long record, that he has been consistent on the important issues, resonates immediately with people once they get to know him.

His upward trend is directly related to his increasing name recognition, which was near zero just months ago.

When supporters are asked why they support him, I have not seen anyone say because of the email stories. It's ALWAYS because 'he's the real deal' or 'he's so authentic' and 'he is saying what we were waiting for a politician to say'.

Young people eg, are enthusiastic about him because he directly addresses their concerns, college loans, jobs for the future etc.

It's his Progressive message that is drawing people to his campaign, proving that the notion we are a 'right leaning' nation was always false.

[LiberalArkie]

24. So True

[Motown_Johnny]

26. It may just be me....

...but I am trying to predict a pattern within the trend. To predict, I must take a guess at what is going to happen and when it is going to happen.

It seems to me that her numbers tick down after these negative news cycles (if you allow some lag time necessary for it to be reflected in the polls) and then they stabilize for a couple weeks. Then the pattern repeats.

This may all be moot since the first debate is getting close and then she will need to testify before Congress soon afterward. The potential for negative news cycles for her will be greatly increased over the next month or so. This will obscure the pattern, assuming it does really exist.


I admit that I might be seeing something that does not really exist. It is in our nature to "connect the dots" to find patterns. So I am putting myself out there to see if the pattern does pop up again. Only time will tell.

[sabrina 1]

30. You may be right that the negative coverage re the emails is having some impact. I really can't say.

But for me, IF I supported her to begin with, I would probably assume it is nowhere near as important as the coverage implies and it wouldn't change my mind about her overall.

I don't support her and haven't paid much attention the email stories, other than to wonder why people put themselves in positions like this knowing they have political enemies. I wondered the same thing about Bill Clinton but fiercely defended him anyhow against the far right.

I don't support her because she is far too close to Wall St, way too hawkish, has been wrong on so many important issues to the point of showing herself to have very faulty judgement, Gay Rights, eg, Welfare Reform, still don't know if she has changed her mind on that yet. The TPP etc.

I don't want leaders who have yet to evolve, while in positions of power, on major issues. That is way too risky for people, see the Iraq War eg, too late to evolve ten years later, that doesn't bring back the dead.

So I see Bernie's record by comparison and I know he has the foresight and judgement necessary in a leader. And it's as simple as that for me. The email thing is just another example of poor judgement which she again, has to 'explain'. On its own however, if she had a good record on most of the issues, it would not influence me at all.

[Boomer]

34. Dead on

Thank you for articulating my own position as a supporter of Sanders.

I don't care about the emails; I think the issue has been inflated out of Republican spite. Nothing about this kerfuffle in a teacup has changed my overall impression of Hillary Clinton: she will always choose what is most politically expedient for the moment. I don't trust her because I have no idea what she truly believe in, if anything. So far all I hear is what she thinks the most people want to hear.

[Motown_Johnny]

68. Not all support is equal

You keep up on these things so your support tends to be more solid. Most people are not like that. There is such a thing as "soft support". I think that the negative cycles are eroding some of her soft support.

Just how much of her support is soft and how much is solid remains to be seen.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

31. I'm not seeing the 'couple of weeks stabilization'.

Seems to me it's just that as more people hear about Sanders, they realize they don't have to settle for Clinton to beat whoever the Republicans want to throw up. Bernie is finally getting more media coverage, since his numbers have ticked up so far they can't continue to pretend even to themselves that he's not worthy of coverage.

[kenn3d]

67. Update to HuffPollster chart

Not too important really but, the latest data from the NBC/WSJ poll which was the primary topic of the OP (and this thread) was not aggregated into the HuffPollster chart until this morning:


Those interested in following this composite chart as additional polls are released can find it updated here:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

FWIW, the new NBC/WSJ data dropped the current composite spread a tad further from 16.1 to 15.2

[Motown_Johnny]

69. Thanks for the update.

That long term chart is great, but I have gotten into the habit of looking at the trend since April, because that is when Bernie entered the race. Those big curves are not as pronounced, but for me it give a more accurate picture of the race.





I am just loving that little green dot all the way on the right, just above and to the right of that little purple dot.

[TwilightGardener]

17. Excellent.

[TBF]

18. Kick and Rec! Go Bernie Go! nt

[Baadger]

61. Sorry I'm a newb

What does Kick and Rec mean?

[TBF]

63. By commenting it makes the post

go up so people see it first. "Rec" means recommend. K&R - abbreviation you will see a lot.

Welcome!

[Baadger]

76. Thanks!

[Tom Rinaldo]

20. I wonder if the media will have to rethink their strategy of talking up Biden

...in order to avoid talking about Sanders

[Rosa Luxemburg]

21. and this is a national poll!

not just the New Hamphires and the Iowas.

[moobu2]

23. I thought national polls didn't matter?

[ram2008]

25. They don't matter much

But the trends do. Bernie has already surpassed the point where Obama was in 2007. Bernie is stronger with white voters, so it's almost guaranteed he'll win Iowa and New Hampshire now and get a big boost from that. Once he gets that boost he'll get some more minority support and will overtake Hillary nationally.

The only way Hillary wins this is if somehow minority voters don't like Bernie's message after they all know about him... At the end of the day I don't think that will happen.

[ish of the hammer]

35. only when Clinton is leading

but when it's Sanders I'm rainbows out my ass Unicorn Happy!

[A Simple Game]

39. They didn't matter until Bernie started leading in New Hampshire and Iowa then everyone with

a big H under their name said two all white states didn't matter look at Hillary's lead in the national polls.

Pretty soon none of the polls will matter because Bernie will be leading in all of them.

But I don't really think the national polls matter except for the trends because the Presidential election is not a national election.

[Krytan11c]

45. Once he is leading

They will say it is endorsements and super delegates that matter. Hell, they are already starting to use those talking points.

[A Simple Game]

47. Like Yogi said,

"it ain't over til it's over."

They may reconsider their thinking when he is the Democratic nominee, or maybe when he takes the oath of office.

[tomm2thumbs]

57. Maybe after he's President and there is a painting it will sink in

Paintings seem to really do it for some people

[HooptieWagon]

54. He's also leading in several other states.

And continues to gain ground in the remainder. Hillary continues to plummet...Biden gets in soon for establishment PlanB?

[Baadger]

62. Which other states?

Is there a list somewhere?

[Indepatriot]

22. Let's Roll!

Volunteer, Educate friends & family, Donate. WE need to work as hard as Bernie is to win!

[Jack Rabbit]

27. K/R

Very good news.

[cpompilo]

28. Win Bernie Win!

[99th_Monkey]

29. Kickety-kick & big REC. nt

[treestar]

32. yeah and another day she'll gain it back

It's too early for all of this. She's still ahead by a lot.

[rocktivity]

33. If Biden enters the race, a sticky situation arises

Who does Obama endorse?


rocktivity

[ram2008]

36. I believe if Biden enters he subtly endorses him later on.

Probably after a Hillary loss in Iowa and NH to Sanders. He won't say it outright, but could come out subtly and say something like:

"You know Joe has been a great, loyal Vice President who has stuck it out with me to the end, there's no one else in the world I'd trust as President and to help the American people more than I'd trust Joe; however, we have a great field of candidates and I would be happy if any of them were President over a Republican."

[TBF]

64. He'll just wait and endorse

whoever locks the primary. That's what people in the middle do.

[kenfrequed]

65. No.

Biden is not running.

And the moment he finalizes that decision officially a fair amount of his support will snap back elastically to Clinton. At which point the Clinton camp will declare some kind of victory or claim to be surging even if they have gained zero ground when compared to polls that don't feature Biden in them.

Biden isn't a campaign. He is a campaign strategy.

[senz]

73. So a lot of Clinton voters would welcome a familiar alternative.

Which means her support is soft.

[AppalachianAmerican]

37. This was fun news to wake up to...

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside and it is ragin’
It’ll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’

[Robbins]

38. This Is huge

remember when people said bernie couldn't get past 20 to 25%?

even if biden stays out he is at 38% nationwide.and we haven't had a debate yet.

Bernie is doing better than Obama was at this point in 2007 nationwide and in both Iowa and NH.

The email story isn't going away but that isn't why Bernie is rising.

[mak3cats]

41. K & R (eom)

[Enthusiast]

42. Go, Bernie!!!!

[jfern]

48. Look at the change from 3 months ago

These are without Biden

June: Hillary leads 75-15, a 60 point lead
September: Hillary leads 53-38, a 15 point lead

However, I don't expect them to tie next month.

[Babel_17]

50. Wow, and the winning ways of the Sanders campaign has barely ...

Wow, and the winning ways of the Sanders campaign has barely had a chance to reach voters in states with later primaries.

[senz]

72. And no debates, either. The DNC can't seem to hide him well enough.

I'll bet they're twirling their mustaches (or their streaming locks), wondering how on earth they were foiled again!

[WillyT]

52. K & R !!!

[ALBliberal]

53. Americans respect Bernie. They see how hard he is working. And at his age

it's even more admirable. Bernie takes none of our votes for granted. Americans have a strong work ethic and Bernie mirrors that. And Bernie is tapping into all of our concerns....all of our middle class concerns. Bernie is the one we have been waiting for.

[Milliesmom]

55. Very unfair

To me it's very unfair to all the candidates to have Joe Biden listed and taking polls with him included, he is not a candidate and very doubtful he will be one.

[Baadger]

60. Poor Hillary

I'm a Bernie supporter, but I honestly feel for Hillary.

The poor lady thought she was going to get it 8 years ago and didn't. And now it is deja vu.

She must have a real sinking feeling in her stomach right now.

[senz]

74. I can sympathize with her but much, much more with the American people.

Hillary will not make a difference for the poor, minorities, working-class folks.

But Bernie will. This has been his entire life.

Hillary's feelings are not worth their suffering.

[Baadger]

75. Yes

I agree. She has made her bed.

[lostnfound]

66. "Breaking news: Biden Gaining on Hillary..."

Yesterday the TV screen had a photo of Hillary and a photo of Biden, and a voiceover talking about whether Biden could overtake Hillary.

Blatant "blind spot".

[grahamhgreen]

70. IMHO, PoC tally is due to name recognition alone.

[senz]

71. The OP doesn't say that this is a NATIONAL poll dated TODAY.

IOW, it's a big big deal.

I'm used to seeing positive polls re NH and Iowa. Have not seen such definitive good news for Bernie at the national level.

No one can ignore this one; it matters.

So glad to hear that Bernie is picking up some with PoC, too. We know that will take more time; people need more exposure to this man who is incapable of bigotry and cares about people, above all. A lot of people are trying to keep PoC from knowing the truth about Bernie.

And let us heartily welcome Joe Biden into the race!

GO BERNIE!!

[reformist2]

77. OMG WOW!

Those are the first two "words" that come to mind!