New CNN National Poll!!! .... Relax everybody.

[kenn3d]

The latest CNN National Primary poll shows the Clinton/Sanders spread increasing from +10 Clinton to +18 Clinton in just the one week since the previous CNN poll. But despite any headlines you may be reading or watching, or arguing about here, this is really not too newsworthy. And all the news about it will be misleading.

Both the HuffPolster and the RealClearPolitics Composites recorded a further small decline in Clinton's lead over Sanders when this new CNN poll was added to their respective datasets.
Huh?! Soooo.... That means Go Bernie! Right?
Not really. Bernie has indeed been gaining in the polls (on average) and that fact has been readily visible in the composite results of all these polls pretty much ever since he announced his campaign. But this newest CNN poll has only contributed to those composite trend calculations. It does not define the current state of the competition. She's still way ahead in the national polls (if that means anything). And Bernie is still closing the gap as can be easily seen by looking at the composite graphs.

On the left you see the composite averages shown as of Sept 10th. This was the day when the previous CNN poll was included in this chart. That specific individual poll had Clinton at 37 and Sanders at 27 (Clinton +10) and the headlines screamed Clinton tanking! Sanders surging!
The composite spread at that point was Clinton 45.8 / Sanders 22.6 (Clinton +23.2)

On the right you see today, with this latest CNN poll included in the composite dataset. This new specific individual CNN poll has Clinton at 42 and Sanders at 24 (Clinton +18) and the headlines this morning shout Clinton widens lead over Sanders 80%!
The composite spread is now Clinton 43.3 / Sanders 23.8 (Clinton +19.5)

IOW, from the time last week when Sanders was surging to within 10pts, until now with Clinton widening her lead... the composite spread (gap) has narrowed by 3.7%

And btw, if you prefer to use the HuffPollster Composites, that chart with the addition of today's new CNN data has Clinton 43.4 / Sanders 26.3 (+17.1 Clinton).


So my friends, this new CNN poll is no more worthy of this morning's MSM headlines proclaiming Hillary's sudden rise, than was the last CNN National Primary poll showing a spread of +10 Clinton in proclaming Bernie closes the gap to 10pts!. Neither, were really true, or meaningful in any way.

If you're interested in following the minutia of weekly fluctuations in the national polls, just watch the composite trend graphs and spreads. Don't be misled into thinking that any one poll (no matter how poorly or excellently conducted) represents the state of the race at any point in time. The composite averages of many many many national polls can only gradually describe the contest in a very broadly averaged and generalized way that has little or nothing to do with the actual probabilities that your candidate can or will gather sufficient primary delegates to be nominated in the arduous state by state process that won't begin yet for months. The race for the nomination is not in any real way measured by this national polling. And the individual polls by themselves certainly do not indicate the current state of the race.

But...

Anything can happen. So support your candidate. GOTV!

[yeoman6987]

1. I would love to tank like that

I have zero doubt our next president of the United States is Hillary Clinton. With Walker out, I am even more sure.

[cantbeserious]

2. A Vote For Hillary In The Primaries Is A Vote For Trump In The General

eom

[yeoman6987]

3. Well if I thought trump was going to be in the general

then maybe but I don't. I still believe it will be Jeb. And Hillary will beat him.

[cantbeserious]

5. It Will Take A Miracle For Jeb To Be The Nominee IMHO

eom

[Garrett78]

8. Bush is far more likely than Trump to be the nominee.

There's no way the RNC will allow Trump to become the nominee.

[Aerows]

27. Judging from the enthusiasm he has managed

to dampen among Republican voters the minute his name is mentioned, I doubt the RNC is going to have a choice about it. If a miracle happened and every other Republican candidate for the nomination suddenly dropped dead, he'd still have even odds to secure it. He has less chance than you or I do at being President.

[Garrett78]

9. Not sure how Walker exiting plays any role.

With a favorable electoral college map and a clown car opposition, one has to consider the eventual Democratic nominee to be the favorite. But Clinton is a very polarizing figure. She'll certainly motivate the base to come out and vote. The Republican base, that is. I still think she has better odds than anyone of becoming the next POTUS, but the race will be closer than it should be.

It doesn't help that the DNC is allowing the Republicans to dominate the airwaves and frame the discussion via what amounts to massive free advertising (i.e., the debates). I know Clinton doesn't come across as very authentic and she's not a good debater, but she should be confident enough in her lead to be pushing for earlier debates to demonstrate the contrast in ideologies and temperament. Not to mention having a debate before Biden enters the race, if he does, would be to her advantage. Not following the latest GOP debate with a Dem debate is poor strategy. It's not about the quantity of debates so much as the timing.

[dsc]

17. we were told over and over again in 2008 that Obama wasn't a polarizing figure

and that Hillary was. Then he become the most polarizing President ever. Before that Clinton wasn't a polarizing figure but then he became the most polarizing President ever before Obama. Before that Carter wasn't a polarizing figure but then be become the most polarizing President ever before Clinton. Does this pattern ring any kind of bells?

[yeoman6987]

22. Clintons only flaw in 2008 is that she ignored caucus'

That won't happen again.

[Garrett78]

26. No, because you've invented a pattern that doesn't exist in reality.

I'm not saying Clinton isn't electable. But the fact is she has a very poor favorable:unfavorable ratio. Simply put, a lot of people hate Hillary Clinton. And how polarizing a particular POTUS has been is irrelevant, since we're talking about Clinton's ability to *become* POTUS.

[Juicy_Bellows]

21. Tank like this?

Cheers!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. If anybody believes Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee he or she can't be serious...

And the proverbial wager's window is open...

[cantbeserious]

6. Personal Derision Is Not A Sucessful Persuasion Technique

Last edited Tue Sep 22, 2015, 07:56 AM - Edit history (2)

eom

[Garrett78]

10. Trump is a bombastic bigot who can't articulate a substantive policy position.

Now, that alone doesn't disqualify him, though his variety of bigotry is too overt even for the RNC. Trump is a loose cannon. He's unpredictable and deviates from the script. On the rare occasion that he offers up anything substantive, such as his thoughts on progressive taxation, it conflicts with Republican ideology.

Trump will be brought down.

[cantbeserious]

11. Matters Not Your Opinion - Matters More Republican Primary Voters

eom

[Garrett78]

18. It's more of a selection process than an election process.

The voters have less say than you might think.

http://www.salon.com/2015/09/20/how_gop_party_bosses_will_rig_the_system_to_keep_trump_from_winning_partner/?ref=yfp

[MindfulOne]

19. I'm afraid that it's not just the GOP.

Actually, the insider dynamic works in all organizations.

But the degree to which the organization insiders are willing to force the issues varies.

One would hope that the Democratic Party machine would be less inclined than other organizations to be undemocratic about it, but history tells us otherwise.

[Garrett78]

20. There's no doubt about it.

It's one of numerous reasons why I've said from the beginning that Sanders doesn't have any chance of being nominated, and I don't think that's what his campaign is all about.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I am serious in my belief that anybody who believes Donald Trump will...

I am serious in my belief that anybody who believes Donald Trump will emerge as the Republican nominee can't be serious.

My record as a political handicapper is a good one. I predicted Scott Walker's demise three months ago. You can do a search.

[yeoman6987]

23. I wasn't shocked by Walker dropping out.

But I was shocked at his poll numbers free falling after the debates. I didn't think they'd fall that fast and abrupt. I mean he didn't make any major faux pas or anything.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I am not smart enough to pick the eventual GOP winner. I am smart enough to pick the field....

I am not smart enough to pick the eventual GOP winner. I am smart enough to pick the field against Trump.

[reformist2]

7. My favorite headline was the one that said Hillary's lead grew by 80%, too funny.

True. But a perfect example of how you can exaggerate, mislead, and effectively lie with statistics.

[HereSince1628]

13. If I read it correctly cnn polled registered democrats on dem nominee preference

Although some states require it, almost half have open primaries. Sanders as an independent inside the democratic party seems likely to attract other independents inside the party and out.

Regardless of age, if the pool of surveyed voters is limited to those who formally connect to party establishment, it seems you are going to get an outcome that leans toward the party establishment.

[99Forever]

14. Another carefully skewed poll...

... gets carefully skewed results.

In other breaking news, water has been found to be wet.








Some fucking people will buy anything.

[coyote]

15. If the Charts were a Stock chart

I would be putting my money into Bernie. Bernie is making higher highs and Clinton lower lows.

[kenn3d]

16. POLL UPDATE Clinton 41%, Sanders 29% (NBC News/SurveyMonkey 9/16-9/18)

POLL UPDATE
2016 National Democratic Primary - Clinton 41%, Sanders 29% (NBC News/SurveyMonkey 9/16-9/18)
Population 5,113 Adults
Margin of Error ±2.0 percentage points
Polling Method Internet
Source NBC/SurveyMonkey [PDF]
This poll asked respondents 4 questions tracked by HuffPost Pollster.

This poll was added to the HuffPollster composite dataset late last night and was apparently the reason for the difference in spread between the HuffPolster and RCP averages. It is an internet poll, but with a large sample and narrow MOE. RealClearPolitics has not (yet) added it to their datatset.

[MindfulOne]

24. And New Hampshire!

[kenn3d]

28. Poll Update - Morning Consult

Poll Update - Morning Consult
Clinton 49 Sanders 28 (No Biden)
Population 4,033 Registered Voters
Margin of Error ±2.0 percentage points
Polling Method Internet
Source Morning Consult [PDF]
This poll asked respondents 4 questions tracked by HuffPost Pollster.

I don't intend to update this thread with every new poll until the election, but I wanted to include this one to reinforce one of the main points in my OP.
This poll is another case where we get results which effect the trends in ways that may not seem intuitive. Clinton is down 5pts and Sanders is up 4pts since the last Morning Consult poll (and neither include Biden). But the aggregate spread in HuffPolster increased .4 pts from +17.1 to +17.5 Clinton.

Note: Morning Consult polls are not included in RealClearPolitics composite datasets.