@PPPpolls-->We found Hillary doing a lot better in Iowa over the weekend than other recent polling h

[riversedge]

PublicPolicyPolling
?@ppppolls

PublicPolicyPolling retweeted Ed O'Keefe

We found Hillary doing a lot better in Iowa over the weekend than other recent polling had suggested as well


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Greg Sargent ?@ThePlumLineGS 1h1 hour ago

@ppppolls when is that Iowa poll coming out?
1 retweet 2 favorites
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls 1h1 hour ago

@ThePlumLineGS tonight/tomorrow
0 retweets 3 favorites
Greg Sargent ?@ThePlumLineGS 1h1 hour ago

@ppppolls thanks. that would seem to square with Hillary camp's memo on the polling



>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


Ed O'Keefe Verified account
?@nowthised

She's back (or never left): @HillaryClinton grows over @BernieSanders, expands w/o @VP http://cnn.it/1Lr8VU9 via @ericbradner @CNNPolitics

?t=HBhbaHR0cDovL2kyLmNkbi50dXJuZXIuY29tL2Nubm5leHQvZGFtL2Fzc2V0cy8xNTA5MDkyMTIzNTUtYmVybmllLWhpbGxhcnktc3BsaXQtbGFyZ2UtMTY5LmpwZxSYBxTgAxwUhAYUlAMAABYAEgA&s=gWN_84WaVQIESkJdWnjV-jt6QkDrKSgZAowsPJmsqKg...........

[DCBob]

1. Things are looking up for Hillary!

[riversedge]

2. Great way to start the week.

[DCBob]

3. Indeed.

I suspected a turnaround was happening starting about 10 days ago. I think the email fake scandal has run it course. Nothing significant has turned up and the media got tired of pushing a non-story.

[Skwmom]

11. It is not a fake email scandal. But keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.

I'm sure the Republicans will have a field day with that in relation to national security in the fall.

Tom Brokaw really nailed it in his interview.

[DCBob]

12. Suggestion..

Go to Drudgereport... you will be happier there.

[Dawgs]

4. Based on what? What changed?

Seems odd considering nothing much happened the last few weeks.

[DCBob]

7. The media got tired of pushing the email "non-scandal" scandal.

[Fawke Em]

9. Maybe they only polled people over 50 like CNN. eom

[hack89]

18. That charge has been debunked

people didn't read the methodology description of the poll where it explained why certain groups were not shown in the raw data breakouts. People under 50 were certainly polled.

[liberal_at_heart]

20. I'm not buying that every group except those that favored Hillary had an error in

sampling. This poll was skewed.

[hack89]

21. Did you actually read the methodology description?

we can discuss actual facts about statistics. I have no desire to discuss what your emotions tell you.

[liberal_at_heart]

22. I just mentioned the methodology of leaving out sampling sizes that are +/-8.5 of sampling error.

That is the methodology. I'm just not buying that every group they sampled except those over 50 had a sampling error of +/- 8.5. I think they wanted those other groups to be excluded so they made them +/-8.5 sampling error so they could exclude them.

A total of 1,006 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.
Among the entire sample, 26% described themselves as Democrats, 23% described themselves as Republicans, and 51% described
themselves as independents or members of another party.
All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national
Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage.
Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of
+- 8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with
an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with a sampling error
larger than +-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with "N/A".

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/09/21/1423399/-CNN-Nat-Poll-CLINTON-57-SANDERS-28-But-CNN-polls-ONLY-people-over-50

[hack89]

24. But is it a standard polling procedure?

if every good polling firm does exactly the same thing then there is no bias.

[liberal_at_heart]

25. Why not include the numbers from the 18-34 year olds and the 35-49 year olds?

unless they don't favor Hillary and if that is the case that says a lot.

[DCBob]

30. There were included in the overall poll, just not displayed in the crosstabs.

At least that is my understanding.

[liberal_at_heart]

33. Why not? It's not as if only people over 50 vote?

Why would we not want to know how millions of people plan on voting?

[DCBob]

35. You are not getting it..

They were included in the overall poll... its just the crosstabs were affected. Its a survey science thing... if the error rate is very high don't even show it because it could be misleading. This is a good poll.. imo.

[hack89]

34. Because the margin of error was too high

to be meaningful when looked at in isolation. It explains exactly why. It also explains that the data is included the overall poll results.

[liberal_at_heart]

39. Why was the margin of error too high to include them? How many people in each age group were polled?

[hack89]

40. You are right. It was deliberate. Obviously orchestrated by HRC and the DNC

what was I thinking.

[liberal_at_heart]

41. The same can be said about most polls. They are psychological marketing tools to get people

to vote for the person who is in the lead. I'm sure we will hear lots of Hillary supporters have the same critiques when Bernie is leading in the polls and rightfully so. Personally it does not matter to me except that they can be so deceiving and manipulating. Our entire election process is deceiving and manipulating. It is no wonder over half of our country doesn't vote.

[hack89]

42. Ok. nt

[riversedge]

28. Lots of interaction by Hillary with the press=positive. You may have

slept thru it.

[Dawgs]

29. No need to be a dick. I was asking a legitimate question. n/t

[riversedge]

36. and I gave a

response. There has been been press based on Hillary's many public events/TV events. Given, perhaps you were not sleeping but you may still have missed these events and positive press.

[Dawgs]

38. Whatever. You know what you did. n/t

[mmonk]

5. PPP in November 2008

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2008/11/index.html

[pinebox]

6. Well this says otherwise

Because this story just came out a few hours ago.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2015/09/20/bernie-rising-hillary-fading-how-bernie-sanders-is-winning-the-media-war/
Bernie Rising, Hillary Fading: How Bernie Sanders Is Winning the Media War---

The timeline above shows the percentage of all mentions of any Democratic candidate from January 1, 2015 to present on national television networks Aljazeera America, Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, Comedy Central, FOX Business, FOX News, LinkTV, and MSNBC that were of each candidate. For the first four months of this year, Hillary essentially enjoyed the Democratic field to herself, hovering around 90-100% of all mentions. April 30th, when Bernie Sanders officially declared his candidacy, changed all of that, as he suddenly rocketed to 34% of all coverage by the following day. Hillary regained ground over the following weeks until Sanders’ official kickoff rally in Vermont on May 26th, at which point he has stayed between a quarter and a third of all Democratic candidate mentions ever since. One June 19th, with his Las Vegas rally and Bill Maher appearance, Sanders came within striking distance of Clinton’s media monarchy, claiming 47% of all Democratic candidate mentions that day to Clinton’s 49%, and again on July 18th with the Democratic Party Hall of Fame Dinner in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, when he claimed 43% of mentions to Clinton’s 46%. (Though it should be noted that both of these dates represented days of lower-than-usual coverage of the Democratic slate).


Over the last 30 days Sanders accounts for 24.4% of all Democratic mentions versus 2.3% for Martin O’Malley, 0.3% for Jim Webb, and 0.2% for Lincoln Chafee. Over the last 7 days Sanders has enjoyed a surge in coverage, reaching 35.9% of Democratic mentions, while Martin O’Malley has fallen to just 0.9%, Jim Webb to 0.2% and Lincoln Chafee to just 0.1%.

More troubling for Clinton is the focus of the coverage she is getting. The first word cloud below shows the words most frequently mentioned within 10 seconds of her name on national television coverage August 12th. Words like “server,” “mail,” “private,” “department,” “justice,” “email,” “handling,” and “trust” all feature prominently, focusing on her use of a private email server as Secretary of State. Words mentioned most frequently within 10 seconds of Bernie Sanders’ name the same day are “poll,” “voters,” “clinton,”, and “trump.” This suggests that coverage of Sanders tends to focus less on him as a standalone candidate and more on his role as a foil for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

[DCBob]

8. I think a tweet from PPP trumps your "stale" Forbes article.

[GeorgeGist]

15. Social media rules!

[pinebox]

17. And yet

Hillary's popularity has fallen from 58 to 47 percent in the last month according to polls. Fascinating!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news."

"Buy on the rumor, sell on the news."

That story line is already outdated.

[peacebird]

27. Yep. Bernie is winning the social media wars, which is where young people turn for news & info

He has the enthusiasm and crowds, and hundreds of thousands of volunteers! I think Bernie will turn conventional political wisdom on its head and win the Presidency!

[workinclasszero]

32. Too bad for Bernie that most young people don't vote.

Young-Adult Voting: An Analysis of
Presidential Elections, 1964–2012

https://www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/p20-573.pdf

[peacebird]

37. They came out for Obama in 08

[frylock]

44. They do when you give them something to vote for..

I can guarantee that young people aren't going to come out and vote for Clinton in the GE.

[mcar]

10. Nice

[liberal_at_heart]

13. How much is Hillary's campaign spending on polling again?

My guess is we are going to get not just daily poll updates, but hourly updates. The slightest change and we will be notified. It will be like when CNN breaks in with breaking news and it turns out the breaking news is Obama took their dog out for a walk.

[Metric System]

23. Huh? Internal campaign polling has nothing to do with these public polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. This is the greatest comeback story since Ali-Frazier ll, Ali-Norton ll, and Ali-Spinks ll

eom

[pinebox]

19. lol

That is hilarious!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I forgot Louis-Schmelling ll .

eom

[workinclasszero]

31. WTG Hillary!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. She might not be the leader America deserves but she's the leader America needs.