Bernie Sanders’s surge doesn’t mean the Democratic race is wide open. Here’s why.

[riversedge]

Lots more analysis at link:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/09/17/bernie-sanderss-surge-doesnt-mean-the-democratic-race-is-wide-open-heres-why/


Bernie Sanders’s surge doesn’t mean the Democratic race is wide open. Here’s why.

By Michael Tesler September 17 at 11:00 AM

....................But now, Hillary Clinton’s current popularity with African Americans dramatically exceeds black support for Bernie Sanders. These data from daily surveys by Gallup in July and August, indicate that most black people are unfamiliar with Sanders and that he is not particularly popular among those that recognized his name.

So the challenge for Sanders is clear: a little knownsSenator, from an almost all-white state, who has been criticized by black activists for preaching a message of economic equality that ignores the historic and ongoing circumstances entangling race and class in the United States, somehow needs to galvanize minority support for his candidacy against an opponent who has been extremely popular with blacks and Latinos for over two decades.

Early wins by Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire are unlikely to change that, too. Gary Hart, whose 1984 candidacy is often compared to Sanders’s current campaign, could not translate his better-than-expected strong showing in the Iowa caucuses and resounding victory in the New Hampshire primary into a broader coalition beyond his white base. Nor could Barack Obama’s early-state momentum erode Hillary Clinton’s strong support from Latinos in the 2008 primary.

So until the polls show a substantial upswing in minority support for Sanders, any news story suggesting that “the Democratic race is wide open” is seriously overselling the Senator’s chances.

[Hortensis]

1. Sure, yes, and of course. But minorities understand, and everyone else,

what a living wage would mean to all those who are working full time for poverty wages -- like, for instance, many of their children. We have a whole generation of all colors and ethnicities out there who REMEMBER what it was like to graduate high school or college and step almost directly into a good-paying job and the middle class. I am one of them.

I don't expect his message to be hard to sell once Bernie gets out of Iowa and New Hampshire.

[upaloopa]

8. Basically you are saying economic justice will

take care of a POC's social justice issues and all Bernie needs to do is convince them of that.
That is the very reason Bernie will never get it.
I am amazed that after all this time that idea is still going strong here.
A POC with a good job driving a nice car will still be racially profiled.

[leftofcool]

9. He doesn't get it now and never will.

[azmom]

12. Bernie gets it. Black lives matter has done a

Great job in getting the candidates to address racial justice. I know O'Malley put one out. Did Hillary?

[azmom]

14. Black lives matter says Hillary's racial

Justice record is abysmal.

YANCEY: I think that her record is abysmal (laughter). I think that her support of policies that have decimated black community - she talked a lot about her advocacy for children, for black children, for Latino children while simultaneously sending those children's parents to jail and, if we talk about the Juvenile Justice System, sending those children themselves to jail. And so it's kind of speaking out of both sides of her mouth in a way.


http://www.npr.org/2015/08/20/433257673/black-lives-matter-activist-hillary-clintons-racial-justice-record-is-abysmal

[AgingAmerican]

21. Sanders has never said that

And his supporters have never said that. You guys are the only ones who have ever said that.

[liberal_at_heart]

2. nice try. Bernie has an excellent record fighting for civil rights.

Bernie Sanders on Civil Rights
http://www.ontheissues.org/Domestic/Bernie_Sanders_Civil_Rights.htm

[jfern]

16. These hit pieces are ridiculous

And Hillary supporters post this shit while claiming the media is unfair to their candidate? If the media was fair, Hillary wouldn't be the front runner any more.

[MADem]

3. It's hard to know how much of the interest he is garnering will, at the end of the day,

"stand with Rand."

I don't think they are an overwhelming portion of his support, more like a subset (these guys are jerks, but they're making that kind of noise):

https://reason.com/archives/2015/09/15/bernie-sanders-first-libertarian-sociali

[azmom]

4. Hillary's advisor is writing articles

That may not sit well with black voters.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251599122

[liberal_at_heart]

5. How in the world can someone claim that this country was not built on racism?

You have to be ignoring some pretty hard and cold facts to claim that. Some of the earliest laws passed in this country were to make sure that only white males could own land and vote, and this country was built on the backs of slaves. How can anyone deny that?

[azmom]

7. It seems her campaign feels the latino vote

And the black vote are locked down. Maybe it's to get the racist vote.

[riversedge]

13. Shame on you for saying that about a good Democrat!

"And the black vote are locked down. Maybe it's to get the racist vote."

[azmom]

18. It would not be the first time.

"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/08/clinton-obama-not-winning_n_100763.html

[jfern]

17. Facts don't matter if it means you can attack Bernie

[cascadiance]

6. And it is certainly NOT a "done deal" that Hillary's supporters suggest it is too...

... when Bernie is AHEAD of where ultimate president Barack Obama was versus Hillary at this point of the campaign in 2007.

[azmom]

10. Nope and her numbers will start

Going down after the first debate.

[reformist2]

11. More denial. Momentum is everything. It's a sign of what's to come.

[Warren DeMontague]

15. If Hillary has it in the bag, why bother trying to sell people on her in the primaries, on DU?

Doesn't matter. Foregone conclusion, the fortune telling lady has already taken all her things inside, right?

[azmom]

19. Some here have actually donated

Money to her campaign. What are they thinking?

[Warren DeMontague]

20. Maybe save it for the general. Obviously the primaries are just a formality.

Really, it's sort of offensive that they're bothering with them at all, rather than just naming her the nominee now.