Michael Tesler: Bernie Sanders’s surge doesn’t mean the Democratic race is wide open. Here’s why

[portlander23]

Bernie Sanders’s surge doesn’t mean the Democratic race is wide open. Here’s why

So the challenge for Sanders is clear: a little known Senator, from an almost all-white state, who has been criticized by black activists for preaching a message of economic equality that ignores the historic and ongoing circumstances entangling race and class in the United States, somehow needs to galvanize minority support for his candidacy against an opponent who has been extremely popular with blacks and Latinos for over two decades.

So until the polls show a substantial upswing in minority support for Sanders, any news story suggesting that “the Democratic race is wide open” is seriously overselling the Senator’s chances.

[djean111]

1. We will just keep chugging along, supporting Bernie. That's the bottom line, really.

[SonderWoman]

2. If we nominate someone that can't get women and minorities...

Trump might as well start measuring the WH drapes.

[peacebird]

4. Bernie has HUGE support among women. Not all of us are voting for what's between the candidates legs

[SonderWoman]

6. According to recent polling, about 19%.

That is NOT HUGE. That's an election defeat. Hillary has 55% of women and that includes with Biden being polled.

[AtomicKitten]

9. Her support among Democratic women dropped 29-pts from 71% to 42% since July.

Clinton’s support erodes sharply among Democratic women.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-sharp-erosion-in-clinton-support-among-democratic-women/2015/09/14/6406e2a0-58c3-11e5-b8c9-944725fcd3b9_story.html

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Hillary Rodham Clinton is suffering a rapid erosion of support among Democratic women — the voters long presumed to be the bedrock in her bid to become the nation’s first female president.

The numbers in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll are an alarm siren: Where 71 percent of Democratic-leaning female voters said in July that they expected to vote for Clinton, only 42 percent do now, a drop of 29 percentage points in eight weeks.

<snip>

[SonderWoman]

12. Nope. Newest NYT poll has her at 54% and Biden leading Bernie with women.

[AtomicKitten]

14. Bzzzzt: Link?

Her support has dropped precipitously over the summer. It's all about the trrend.

[SonderWoman]

17. LOL. Download the PDF. I dare you.

Too funny. Go ahead, download it:
Women:
Hillary: 54%
Biden 22%
Bernie: 19%

BZZZZZT.

[AtomicKitten]

19. Link? Trend is the proper measure when comparing different polling.

And her trend is consistently downward, sharply over the summer, and that's a fact.

[pandr32]

11. That comment is uncalled for

We live in a patriarchal society that treats men and women differently...perpetuating the advantage and privilege of men. The perspectives of both sexes are quite different as the result, shaped by their socialization and circumstances. It is not just a matter of genitals...it is a matter of insight. At least half the population is female, and the female experience cuts across the socioeconomic spectrum.

[peacebird]

15. Please. Enlighten me. Seriously, I am a 58 yo woman, worked professionally in engineering.

When I started, first business conference there were 98 men and me. By the time I retired, there were equal numbers of men and women working with me. I understand the salary difference is real in some fields, didn't notice it in mine. (Husband in same field)
But I see huge gains were made over 40 years. I don't see the systemic overarching patriarchy.
What am I missing?

[SonderWoman]

16. Thank you. I've learned to ignore the crass comments.

For the most part.

[peacebird]

3. Well he HAS surged past Hillary in support on college campuses, and I am sure he will with

Minority groups as well.

The more people hear Bernie, the more they like & support Bernie. The same clearly cannot be said of Hillary.

[liberal_at_heart]

5. People just keep trying to create a problem for Bernie with black people that simply does not

exist.

[peacebird]

7. Trying to discourage Bernie supporters, I think. It aint working! Reeks of desperation.

[ieoeja]

18. No, it is propaganda trying to convince African-Americans that Bernie doesn't care about them.

But Bernie wasn't the one wagging his finger at BLM activists and saying he would only talk to Whites about race issues from now on.

And Bernie did not run a racist campaign against the first Black President in 2008.

Okay, maybe you're right. Maybe it is desperation. They must know all of that is going to get airplay after New Hampshire. One of the things I said when there was talk of whether Hillary would run or not was, "how is she going to overcome the racism of her 2008 campaign?" And that was before the finger wagging. That recording was unbelievable.

[aikoaiko]

8. When "the polls show a substantial upswing in minority support for Sanders" it will all over...

...and not wide open.

[Bluenorthwest]

10. These are last month's tropes and they are starting to smell a little off.

nt

[BuelahWitch]

20. Yep, that's all they got

Pretty soon they won't have that!

[99Forever]

13. Another delusional chump...

.....whistling past the graveyard.

Watch and learn, bub.