Hillary Clinton is Still the Candidate to Beat

[upaloopa]

The headlines screaming “Clinton’s Support Erodes” are true, but only in a relative sense. In the contest for the Democratic nomination, according to the polls, she has slid all the way from “prohibitive favorite” to something like “strong favorite” — not bad, given the way she has hobbled herself with the e-mail scandal.

A new Post-ABC News poll gives a clear view of Clinton’s status. Among registered voters who are Democrats or lean toward that party, Clinton is at 42 percent while Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is at 24 percent and Vice President Joe Biden at 21 percent. Since July, according to the poll, Clinton’s support has fallen 21 points. So yes, her campaign has reason to be concerned. But not alarmed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/hillary-clinton-is-still-the-candidate-to-beat/2015/09/14/b381ccc0-5b14-11e5-8e9e-dce8a2a2a679_story.html?postshare=9251442320222962

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

1. Her unstoppable train seems to be stuck in reverse.

[LondonReign2]

10. The unstoppable train is a rollercoaster

[DCBob]

12. This graph is better..

[LondonReign2]

13. The one showing she only lost about two points in the last week is better?

Ummm, OK.

Edit: Upon further review, I guess I was being a bit too generous to Hillary. From September 1 to September 10, the period your graph captures, she actually lost 3.9 points (45.7 - 23.7 to 43.3 - 25.2). This is perfectly consistent with the 10 points per month she has been losing.

[DCBob]

18. Its actually two weeks.. and yes it's better since it clearly shows Bernie rapid ascent has slowed.

His rate of gain has slowed meaning he is peaking and wont be able close the gap much further.. barring some horrendous actual scandal.

[LondonReign2]

22. I don't think it shows what you think it shows

Dates are Sept 1 - 10, with Hillary losing 3.9 points. That's 11.7 points/month, pretty much the same rate as the previous two months.

But if that graph makes you feel better, OK.

[DCBob]

23. I chose the end date as the 15th. I guess the 10th was last poll.

Yes. It does make me feel better. Thank you.

[DCBob]

11. Just slowing a bit to clear the cows off the track.

Once that is done then she will get rolling again!

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

19. Or, maybe, she's trying to detach the overloaded baggage car.

I don't think it's going to work, though.

[DCBob]

20. LOL... good one.

[winter is coming]

15. Pretty soon, she'll be the candidate to fold gently. n/t

[Hortensis]

2. Umhm, & Bernie has a whole nation who'll get to know him better. We'll see.

Then there's O'Malley. Too good to count out this weird election season.

[Comrade Grumpy]

3. Yes, but the race is looking increasingly interesting.

[AtomicKitten]

4. Hillary's problem with women --> a 29-pt drop from 71% to 42% since July.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-responds-29-point-drop-support-women/story?id=33756547

[morningfog]

6. Ouch, that hurts.

[askew]

5. And that is the problem.

She is going to limp into the general election a wounded and unelectable candidate who only got through the primary by name recognition and money. She can't win a general election with her unfavorable and untrustworthy numbers.

If after the first debate, Bernie or O'Malley can't get ahead, we need Biden to jump in. We can't risk having Obama's incredible successes undone because we ran a disaster of a general election candidate.

[AgingAmerican]

9. Biden won't run

He said he might not be able to handle it emotionally. You cannot run after saying that, nobody would take him seriously and it would dog him endlessly.

[Scootaloo]

17. Joe has no chance

His numbers right now are completely due to being Vice president. Once he gets out on the field and runs as "Candidate joe Biden," the numbers will drop hugely.

• He will either have to run as an Obama third term, or he will have to run against obama. I don't think either option will make Biden happy at all, but that's one of the problems with campaigning as VP. Either way he goes, he's going to catch some real shit on this.

• Biden's positions are largely indistinguishable from clinton's. He's not going to pick up the left from Sanders and O'Malley. But he won't pick up Clinton's supporters, either - they seem to be exceptionally loyal to her. His only chance are those Clinton supporters who back her because she was part of the Obama administration. Those numbers aren't enough to float Joe.

• He shoots his mouth off. While that does make him personable ("this is a big fucking deals!" is one of the best lines in politics from the last 20 years) is also makes it easy to cut him down. As you mentuioned, his statement about his emotional securoty is going to be a HUGE point of attack if he jumps in. And sadly, hammering that particular spot would her Biden - not his numbers, but him personally.

Basically, if Biden announces, what will happen is that he will jump out at 25%, Clinton will lose like 10%, and then voters will very rapidly remember why Joe Biden came in at #5 in 2008. He'll blow a lot of money, a lot of emotion, and a fair amount of goodwill, all for nothing.

Joe needs to seek office in the Legislature again. That, or hold out for the next presidential cycle.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

21. Why would we want Biden? Just another neolib.

[AgingAmerican]

7. Sanders has the momentum

nt

[CountAllVotes]

8. Beat her, beat her!!!

[oasis]

14. Slowed primarily by the media manufactured e-mail foolishness,

she's never taken her eye off of the prize.

[Scootaloo]

16. Thing is, she has nowhere to go but down

The problem she has is also her primary advantage - Name recognition. 92% of respondents know who Hillary clinton is (and I will wager that the other 8% are being sarcastic.) Now this is great for securing and early lead, everyone knows who you are, you're first on their minds when poll-takers ask, and it gives you a nice buoyancy.

But once you start losing numbers - and Clinton has been losing her position steadily - there's almost no way to go back up. Everyone out there knows who she is, and they're starting to say "thanks, but no." There no untapped market there.

By contrast, Sanders has something like 18% name recognition, and O'Malley has less than 10%. This is bad for breaking into the race (ask Chaffee), but it also means they have a wide-open field to grow into.

In October, we start the debate cycle. This is a one-two punch for Clinton; One, debates spike name recognition and introduce "unknowns" to a broader scope of voters. Each debate is good for Sanders and O'Malley, even if Clinton actually does best in the debates. And frankly, if 2008 was any indication of Clinton's debate skills... That's not likely to happen.

And then we step into the Iowa Caucus - where Sanders is leading. Then New Hampshire, where Sanders is strongly leading. And generally, taking those two early contests provides a significant bump for whoever does it, which is why candidates campaign so much in those two states.

Is Clinton doomed? I'm of course biased, being a Sanders supporter, but trying to be as objective as I can? Unless she pulls off something amazing between now and February 9, or unless Sanders does something truly atrocious i nthe same space, Clinton will not win the nomination.