2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Poll. Obama +14 in Michigan, Obama +6 in Pennsylvania
Michigan is not a battleground state. PA is holding firm.
Michigan 53/39
Pennsylvania 49/43
Additional Findings:
There are a couple common themes driving Obama's success in these states. The biggest is his competitiveness with white voters. He actually leads 48-44 with them in Michigan, and he just narrowly trails 46-45 with them in Pennsylvania. Given the healthy sized African American populations in both those states anything close to a split with white voters will give Obama an easy victory. Obama is also benefiting from a huge lead with women in both states, 59-33 in Michigan and 54-37 in Pennsylvania, which helps him offset a closer race with men. And he has the upper hand with independents in both states, 50-37 in Michigan and 46-39 in Pennsylvania.
More at link:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/obama-leads-in-michigan-and-pennsylvania.html
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)The media always wants to make Michigan a 'swing state' but this is the latest evidence that it will be democratic in November. PA is ok, wish it were higher, but not bad.
catbyte
(34,458 posts)here in Michigan. Even Republicans loathe him. Give it up, Mitt. At least one of your "home" states is rejecting you.
Diane
Anishinaabe in MI & mom to Taz, Nigel, and new baby brother Sammy, members of Dogs Against Romney, Cat Division
"Dogs Arent Luggage--HISS!
gopiscrap
(23,765 posts)greatauntoftriplets
(175,752 posts)since it's the state where he was born.
Bwa ha ha ha!!!
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)catbyte
(34,458 posts)I'm not surprised they're spinning like a top trying to make Romney look less pathetic.
Diane
Anishinaabe in MI & mom to Taz, Nigel, and new baby brother Sammy, members of Dogs Against Romney, Cat Division
"Dogs Arent Luggage--HISS!
demosincebirth
(12,543 posts)a whole industry in Michigan.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)One thing that could be a huge game changer in both of these states? Mitt Romney selecting Condoleezza Rice as his running mate. She would give him a 6 point advantage both places, pulling him into a tie in Pennsylvania at 45-45 and narrowing the gap in Michigan to 50/42. Rice is a very unusually popular political figure. In Pennsylvania her favorability rating is 60/27 and in Michigan it's 56/28. She's even seen favorably by Democrats- 47/38 in Pennsylvania and 41/40 in Michigan- in both states. Her selection has the potential to be a game changer.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/
But still have a hard time thinking that Mitt, who has problems with the hard right would put a pro-choice African-American woman on the ticket--even if she is a war hawk.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)I don't know why its included in the polling. Its not going to happen.
longship
(40,416 posts)But it is likely that she wouldn't accept it.
Rmoney is going to be stuck with a mate that's to his right, to prop up the base.
Daniel537
(1,560 posts)Condi was one of the top neo-cons during the W years. Don't know what they're smoking up there.
still_one
(92,422 posts)longship
(40,416 posts)And +14, to boot.
Rmoney's screwed in his home state.
Maybe he's just screwed all around.