Hillary Is No Lock, Bernie Is No Fluke: The Democratic Race Is Wide Open - Salon

[WillyT]

Hillary is no lock, Bernie is no fluke: The Democratic race is wide open
Recent polls tell a clear story: Hillary Clinton is no longer the safe bet we once thought
Sean Illing - Salon
Monday, Sep 14, 2015 12:20 PM PDT

<snip>

The Democratic presidential race began with Hillary Clinton as the presumptive nominee. The punditocracy (myself included) peddled this narrative for years, and for ostensibly good reasons. Hillary, in many respects, is the most prepared and qualified candidate in the entire field. She’s patiently waited her turn since losing to Obama in 2008, and has padded her already impressive resume since. But politics is a fickle business, and the landscape can change overnight.

The view that Hillary Clinton is the obvious frontrunner is no longer defensible. Poll after poll shows that Bernie Sanders is either gaining ground or leading outright. The latest CBS/YouGov poll is particularly alarming if you’re a Clinton supporter. Clinton is trailing Sanders by 10 points in Iowa and 22 points in New Hampshire, although Clinton maintains a sizable (if diminished) lead in South Carolina.

The most recent polls are indicative of a broader trend in the Democratic race. Clinton’s numbers have been slipping for several months, and it’s clear by now that Clinton is not the unassailable candidate many hoped she would be. Hillary’s strategy so far has been to tiptoe around Sanders, hoping his political star fades. But that strategy isn’t working. If anything, that sense of entitlement is part of the reason Sanders has ascended the way he has.

Clinton has to take Sanders seriously now, or risk alienating more of the Democratic base. This idea that Sanders is a fluke, a minor nuisance to be avoided, is a myth. Sanders’s appeal is self-evident and unlikely to pass away anytime soon. People are enthusiastic about his candidacy because he’s challenging the sort of institutional inertia that Clinton, fairly or not, represents. As an establishment figure, Clinton is the status quo. Whatever one thinks of Sanders, he is not part of the Washington consensus – and that matters a great deal in this race.

Democratic insiders like Joe Trippi, former campaign manager for Howard Dean, are still skeptical of Sanders’s staying power. Rejecting comparisons to Sanders’s rise and Dean’s insurgent 2004 campaign, Trippi articulated what I imagine many at the DNC are thinking: “The one thing I can tell you for sure is until the establishment starts attacking the living daylights out of him [Sanders], he’s no threat. The second he becomes a threat, you will know.”

Trippi’s statement implies two things, both of which we already knew: (1) Clinton represents the establishment and Sanders does not and (2) the establishment does not yet consider Sanders a legitimate candidate. Judging by their unwillingness to engage Sanders, I suspect the Clinton campaign shares the belief that Sanders is unserious – and that’s part of their problem. If Hillary’s team isn’t worried by now, their heads are buried deep in the sand.

It’s obviously too soon to write Hillary’s political obituary; with 4.5 months until the Iowa caucuses, this race is nowhere close to being over. But the narrative can shift in a hurry, especially in this media environment...

<snip>

More: http://www.salon.com/2015/09/14/hillary_is_no_lock_bernie_is_no_fluke_the_democratic_race_is_wide_open/

[Android3.14]

1. "patiently waited her turn"

[hifiguy]

2. Like Bob Dole and Mittwit.

I thought "next in iine" was a Repuke thing.

[frylock]

16. The office of President is now a lifetime achievement award evidently.

[Matariki]

10. was going to call that quote out as well

as if we lived in a monarchy or something.

[U of M Dem]

11. I am puking right along with you. Bleh.

Since when was democracy about turn waiting?

Double Bleh.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

14. Great real! She DID wait her turn!

It's not fair, I tell you! It's just not fair!!!

[Thinkingabout]

3. Bernie will not be the DNC nominee.

[morningfog]

7. Keep repeating that mantra.

[artislife]

29. I picture someone staring at his photo

gripping it in their white knucked hands, tears streaming down their face and repeating it over and over.

[U of M Dem]

13. Thank you for predicting the future.

Because fortune telling is a real thing and all.

[DaveT]

15. I think that the last two posters misunderstood post 3

Bernie might be the next President, but he is not likely ever to be the candidate of the Democratic National Committee -- even after the Democratic National Convention nominates him.

Perhaps I am reading too much into a headline only post . . . .

[Thinkingabout]

19. He will not be the DNC nominee, it will be a Democrat.

[DaveT]

20. so I did misunderstand

oh well

[restorefreedom]

22. sorry, that song not gonna sell

so you can stop beating that drum.

he is more democratic than many, and i will be kind enough not to name names.

[Thinkingabout]

24. He does not like the DNC and he will not get the required Delegates.

[restorefreedom]

28. if the the delegates think they are going to

override the will of the voters, this country aint seen nuthin yet.

[Thinkingabout]

30. Exactly, except for Superdelegates other delegates are pledged by the vote or

Caucuses within a state or region. There will not be a need to override the will of the people, after the primary elections the delegates will be pledged.

[restorefreedom]

31. indeed, they will

to bernie

[JVS]

38. I think you're probably right about that.

This is a very strange election. Normally when neither party has an incumbent to support the field is wide open to challengers and the big guns come out to play. For our party this election this isn't the case. The reason that only Sanders has put up a significant challenge to Hillary is that other potential candidates (the big guns) have stayed out of it because they think Hillary has it in her grasp. If Sanders is able to demonstrate that Hillary's position is not very good, and he's starting to do that, then other candidates will see that and swoop in to take the prize.

[roguevalley]

4. Trippi's full of shit. As I do recall, I don't remember a President Dean.

[SoapBox]

8. Ditto!

Sounds like another Entrenched Establishment statement.

They are clueless how pissed off Americans really are.

[99th_Monkey]

21. They have to know how pissed off voters are, don't they?

Hill' spent more than $900,000 on polling, just in the second quarter of this year.

How could they not know? Don't they watch the news on TeeVee?

oh wait.

[Major Hogwash]

32. No, actually they don't have to know, because Trippi lives in a bubble in DC.

If he would talk to real people in Missouri or Ohio instead of just talking to his DNC buddies who live in those states, he would learn that the liberals in those states want someone far more liberal than Hillary.
But, living on the gravy train while still attending DNC functions is a way of life for some of these guys.
Nice work if you can get it, but you have to sell your soul first in order to join their small crowd.

[bigdarryl]

5. When did Hillary and her campaign call Sanders a fluke

Im sorry did I miss something

[restorefreedom]

23. her surrogates mocked and dismissed him

bet they are eating some words about now

[Agschmid]

6. Interesting read.

[Enthusiast]

9. Kicked and recommended!

[oasis]

12. Trippi has a better sense of Bernie's chances, and so does Howard Dean.

I'm sure Dean has the highest respect and admiration for Sen. Sanders, but he knows we can't afford to fail. Too much at stake.

[MannyGoldstein]

17. Consider changing "but" to "because"

Small language issue there.

[oasis]

34. See post #33.

[restorefreedom]

26. anhhn the old "he cant win a general" meme

"i like the new stuff, but sometimes its nice to hear the hits."

---howard wolowitcz, bbt

[oasis]

33. I'm hopeful Bernie continues to make progress. He's delivering an

Important message to the American people. His ascendence in the polls is a good thing.

You won't see me denigrate him or his message. That has nothing to do with my view on his chances of winning.

[restorefreedom]

35. if you like his message

why do you think his chances of winning are not good? (or however you would characterize them).

i am very curious about this issue. i understand his detractors not wanting to accept that he could win, but if his message resonates with you, it could be (and is) with many others.

why do think that may not translate to votes?

this is an important issue for the bernie campaign. i have seen other say they like his message but are afraid he can't win

[oasis]

36. Before Democrats make their final decision,

they will consider the entire package each candidate has to offer. Take away Bernie's message and there's little else for them to go on that would make him an acceptable candidate in the GE in their eyes, due to unfamiliarity. But let's just say Democrats put unfamiliarity aside and made Bernie our nominee.

The GOP money would then attempt to define him to the rest of America. Bernie would be drowned out and his important message along with him.

Hill can raise the money needed for the fight ahead. She doesn't throw a major scare into Corporate America so they won't mind giving to her campaign. Bill Clinton is well known in business circles, another plus.

Hillary's supported by NOW and Emily's List, two important women's organizations who will work tirelessly to see she gets into the White House.

You can bet Hillary has been paying attention to Bernie and his movement. Whether she likes it or not, she'll adopt, in some measure, Bernie's ideas. I see no reason why she wouldn't be open to doing that. If she wanted a second term, she'd demonstrate by shaping her administration's policies to reflect the will of her Democratic base.

[restorefreedom]

37. i see what you are saying

but hillary can raise all the $ in the universe, but if people don't like her, trust her, or agree with her message they wont vote for her. bernie has a pretty good trustworthy rating and a great message. and once he is the nom, the money will,start flowing to fight the kochs, that is unless the democratic party wants to throw it to trump to,spite us, which would be very dumb.

[LondonReign2]

27. Yes, like another Iraq War type of vote. We really can't afford to fail again

[hifiguy]

18. I am currently reading the 10th anniversary edition of Naomi Klein's "No Logo."

In that book she predicts - a bit nebulously given that it was written more than a decade ago - that eventually the disaffected, alienated, and people who have reached the Popeye Point (my expression) would manage to create something spontaneously to revolt against corporatism, corporate dominance, and corporate culture.

Something authentic and real, IOW. From the ground up, not top down.

She didn't foresee the rise of social media in that book, but it appears that something is actually happening right here, right now. And as Bernie always says, this is about the PEOPLE, not about him. And he MEANS it.

[99th_Monkey]

25. Yep Bernie means it, and it's SO refreshing ..

people can't help but FEEL THE EVER-LOVIN' BERN.
Go Bernie Go!!