2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSurvey USA: Obama leads by Six in Minnesota
In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 07/20/12, three months till voting begins, Barack Obama captures the North Star State's 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 46% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis / St. Paul.
Romney and Obama are effectively even among male voters. All of Obama's advantage comes from female voters, where Obama leads by 14 points. Romney edges Obama among Minnesota's Independents, but not by enough to offset Obama's 2:1 advantage among Minnesota's moderates. Romney leads in Northeastern MN, but Obama leads in the rest of the state.
In an election for U.S. Senator from Minnesota today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar soundly defeats Republican challenger Kurt Bills, 55% to 31%. Klobuchar leads among men and women, young and old, rich and poor, and in all regions of the state. 21% of those who vote for Mitt Romney for President cross over and vote for the DFL candidate for U.S. Senate.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 07/17/12 through 07/19/12. Of them, 621 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 552 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/06/12. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2699493.shtml?cat=1
Maybe Romney will think that it's close enough in Minnesota that if he put that dullard, Tim Pawlenty, on the ticket it would be enough to win the state.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Good sign. We need WI.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)They have history of being off In Minnesotta.In fall 2008 around october they had poll which had Mccain up by 1.But,few think
Minnesotta will be battleground.They aren't spending In Minnesotta like In Wi,Michigan,and Iowa.
I won't be surprised If Romney picks pawlenty.He Is on my short list of likely Romney picks.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)'likely voter' model I think you're going to see tightening poll numbers.