New Florida poll

[Marzupialis]

And it's good news. Obama leads Romney by 5% according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely voters conducted 7-17 to 7-19.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e4e06e26-835c-4f08-8c04-24a8c4975bc3

[longship]

1. A bit more info would be appreciated for us statistical geeks.

I will click through to get it, but some of us still have low bandwidth, so that is costly.

When you post a poll, the spread is important, as is the number of people polled. Also, are they likely voters or registered voters. Us geeks love this shit. So please include these things in your poll summaries.

No worries. I'll get it. It'll just take a few minutes, or more.

Thanks for this important post.

[Marzupialis]

2. I included the sample type (LV) and date

All else is in the link.

[freshwest]

3. This will only matter if voter disenfranchisement amounts to less than that. And PA is cleaning up.

But it would be GREAT to get Florida this year. Might be the beginning of a turn about in the state to get rid of Voldemort.

[DCBob]

9. It is customary to include a summary of poll in the original post.

Its also customary to put the key poll numbers in the title.

[Marzupialis]

11. It is customary to spend 1 second clicking on a link

Very customary.

It is also customary not to ask people to post whether a poll is RV or LV when the poster already did so.

Extremely customary.

[DCBob]

15. I see you dont take guidance very well.

What's your beef?

[longship]

4. Okay! I will do it!

In the election for the President of the United States in the pivotal state of Florida today, 07/20/12, three months until early voting begins, Barack Obama beats Mitt Romney 48% to 43% according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV in Tampa. In one school of thought Mitt Romney cannot capture the White House without Florida's 29 electoral votes.

There is no gender gap in Florida, unlike many other states, but there is a material age gap and race gap. Romney leads by 4 points among voters 50+; Obama leads By 14 points among voters 18 to 49. Romney leads 5:4 among white voters, Obama leads 10:1 among black voters.

3 key groups propel Obama today: Hospanics break 5:4 Democrat. Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. Independents break 4:3 Democrat. Obama leads among voters who earn less than $40,000 a year; Romney leads among voters who earn more tha $80,000 a year. Those Floridians voting for Mitt Romney prefer Marco Rubio to be Romney's running mate over Condaleeza Rice.

Other details at link in OP.

Here's more:

800 surveyed by phone; 725 registered voters; 647 considered likely to vote. There was no indication of error bars, but with this small a sample I would expect it to be on the order of +-4% or so.

There are tables at the OP's link. As this is an important state, I highly recommend, if you have bandwidth, that you click through.

It took me the better part of an hour to put this together, keying things in manually because the iPhone copy and paste did not work on the linked site. Original poster said, just click through and dismissed my pleas for help.

For those others who are bandwidth limited, I will help where I can and won't be a jerk about it.

[WI_DEM]

6. Good you went to the link that the OP provided.

[WI_DEM]

5. Great news! especially since it's with the 'likely voter' model.

[DCBob]

7. This is very good news indeed. If Obama wins Florida its over.

This is Obama's biggest lead since March. Maybe the numbers are finally turning now.

[Cosmocat]

10. Whatever lead the media can't keep him from getting now will be cut

come the convention.

Romney get to within a small margin of BO after he locked up the nomination.

The chattering class wants to make it out like some big failure on BO's part of whatever, but it just is the reality of a race in a country where 40% of the voting population would support Jack the Ripper if it was the R candidate.

It has been normalizing for a while now, and the last few weeks have been justifiably bad for Romney. But, the media has done EVERYTHING it could to keep it a horse race.

It still chaffs me that the president won a MASSIVE victory on the SC HCR ruling, and it somehow got spinned as a nagative for him and a positive for Rs. Just surreal, but the MO of a "liberal" media that helped the Rs elect a clown you would like to have a beer with, rambod us into Iraq for no reason and paint an actual veteran who served and was wounded in battle as weak vs the twit whose family name kept him from seeing battle as TOUGH AND RESOLUTE. Much less the NEVER ending lie that the Rs are fiscally responsble.

That rant aside ...

They will suppress BOs lead enough that Romney is very likely to over take him in the polls at their convention, and they will be GLORIOUS in trying to tear down BO at that moment. The good news is a quick turnaround to the D convention, but Romney is still very likely to get a bump that will keep him over BO for a few weeks.

Then, we have to hold our breath that nothing freaky happens in September/October ...

[DCBob]

13. couldnt agree more.

good rant.

[sofa king]

12. I've heard that a tsunami is only 18 inches tall at sea.

That's what I'm seeing: a small little wave flashing by just above the margin of error, but by the time it reaches the shore in November, it will be a tidal wave. It's much, much more easy for the Republicans to steal it inside of the margin of error. Once it's outside of that margin, the disparity will continue to grow at an accelerating pace.

It's also worth pointing out that the likely voter polls are almost certainly wrong and incorrectly weighted heavily in favor of Republicans at this point. That is because this year, Republican voters have yet to realize that they will personally profit from not voting at all, thanks to the tax-cut endgame which is quickly approaching.

But they'll have it spelled out to them in the next week or so, as Republican Senators will have to block an extension of the tax cuts for the middle class, instead holding them hostage in exchange for tax cuts for the rich. The Democrats won't compromise on this one, because if they don't there is a good chance that the House will be flipped and the Senate held, and there is also a small but real chance that this election will send the GOP into a permanent party-ending tailspin.

The Republican Party is beginning to resemble Japan at this point in 1945: outmatched, isolated, countered at every turn, the B-29s trying to start forest fires because there were only three cities left to burn, and two of those were being saved for the A-bombs the Japanese did not see coming. They're going to lose, and the only real question now is whether or not we're going to nuke the Emperor's palace, too.

[DCBob]

14. I say nuke'm

Take no prisoners!

[DCBob]

8. "Mitt Romney cannot capture the White House without Florida's 29 electoral votes"

Obama on the otherhand has many paths for victory without FL.

[SunSeeker]

16. K&R

[Daniel537]

17. Likely voters? Uh oh, Dick Morris won't like this.

He's been assuring the sheep on Fox News that when the likely voters polls start coming out, Obama will be getting creamed. Tsk tsk.

[OmahaBlueDog]

18. R & ....

Kick!

onkey:

[Brewinblue]

19. Cell phone respondents

favor Obama by 34 fucking points! Romney leads by 6 with land line respondents. In my experience, almost no one under 40 still pays for a land line. Hell, I'm 52 and haven't bothered with a land line since 2005. The generation gap really appears to be where Romney is doomed.