Bernie Sanders Overtakes Hillary Clinton in Latest Iowa Poll, Continues Leading in NH

[gobears10]

Bernie Sanders has taken a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton in Iowa more than four months before the state’s caucus, according to a poll released Thursday.

The Vermont senator is favorite among 41% of Iowa likely Democratic particpaints, compared with 40% supporting the former Secretary of State, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday. That marks a major reversal from early July, when Clinton was ahead of Sanders, 52% to 33%...

Sanders is also polling ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire, the second Democratic nominating contest.

Link to article: http://time.com/4028812/bernie-sanders-iowa-poll/

Yes!! Go Bernie!! I'm sure that the mainstream media will attempt to minimize this poll as mere statistical noise, but to me, it's the sign of something really great to come. It shows that the momentum for Bernie Sanders is growing, and that he definitely hasn't hit his ceiling.

Hopefully wins for Bernie in Iowa and New Hampshire will generate enough momentum to make him competitive on Super Tuesday.

[FreakinDJ]

1. You go Bernie

[Ichingcarpenter]

2. Dare I say Bernie has not peaked?

LOL..........

[bvf]

6. Dare away!

Very encouraging news.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

29. Not even close...gotta love Bernie and the authentic campaign he's runnin.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[jeff47]

34. No, he's peaked. Again. And again. And again..... (nt)

[Fawke Em]

36. Maybe we should rename him Denali!

[Motown_Johnny]

3. The trend continues

Updated 1 day ago

[peacebird]

9. Looks like the Summer of Sanders is Steaming on into fall, & gaining Berniementum on the way!

[PuraVidaDreamin]

4. Most Excellent

Feel the Bern!

[magical thyme]

5. Feel the Bern!

[SonderWoman]

7. Quinnipiac is very unreliable this year.

They are consistently the outlier poll in every poll. 2 polls last week had HRC at +25:

[peacebird]

8. LOL! No matter how you slice it, Bernies positive numbers trend UP, Hillary's go DOWN!

Just like in '08

[cyberswede]

10. That chart seems unrelated to the topic of this thread.

[gobears10]

12. huh?

He trailed the former secretary of state by a 52-33 percent margin in Quinnipiac's last poll of Iowa's likely Democratic caucus-goers, in July.

Quinnipiac's last Democratic Primary poll for Iowa was two months ago, in July. They didn't release Iowa polls last week with Hillary at +25 in Iowa.

Quinnipiac University has a B+ from FiveThirtyEight. Given that it's a decent polling institute, and quoted often by major news corps from Washington Post, to Time, to CNN, chances are that the very fact that this poll has come out with these numbers might lead to a faster climb in other polls for Bernie.

[morningfog]

19. If nothing else, you are consistent. Lol.

Well trained.

[mak3cats]

20. Be sure to go piss on this thread too - you don't want to miss one!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141203898

[99Forever]

22. Ever notice how those screaming the loudest about "look at the polls"...

...when they like what they are saying, are the exact same ones calling them wrong when "the polls" turn around against them?

[sabrina 1]

32. Lol, Quinnipiac, once the most RELIABLE of polls, has now become irrelevant!

[cantbeserious]

11. No Citizen Need Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go

eom

[tavernier]

13. And yet, no one in the stands has noticed,

for all the big snorting horses galloping and nipping at each other down the track.

I hope that continues!

[nxylas]

14. I don't believe in getting too excited over a single poll

But I'm, shall we say, quietly optimistic nonetheless.

[HereSince1628]

17. No one seems to care this shows Sanders is getting closer to his plateau

Every percent gain he makes takes him a percent closer to that level.

It is a mathematical certainty, it is absolutely inevitable (I mean really, technically it cannot go beyond 100 percent).

Sort looks like that plateau may be north of 40% in that meaningless and insignificant flyover place that is Iowa.

[tomm2thumbs]

15. Nate Silver must be shaking his Magic 8 Ball and wondering whassup

Guess all those predictions are going to be tossed right into the dumpster now

[Fawke Em]

37. The image of that made me laugh!

[WI_DEM]

16. I have to say it would be an interesting election if the nominees were

Bernie, the Democratic Socialist vs. Trump, the ultimate Capitalist.

[HerbChestnut]

18. Wow!

Last week some polls had Bernie near 20%, now 41% here. A 20 point spread within a week or two likely means there's a lot of fluidity in support for the candidates right now, but it's a great sign for Bernie because that support is clearly headed in his direction.

[HereSince1628]

25. Yes this is good news for Sanders...

re your comment on fluidity in support. Current events certainly influence opinion and the few weeks news has been mixed for H>. It could be that support is unsettled, but noisy data could be due to other things.

It could also be a consequence of sample to sample variations of Iowans, variations in polling questions, and variations in assumptions about what 'corrective' practices, if any, are used in developing the final estimates, all of which can produce variation/noise across the many samples.

[HerbChestnut]

26. Yeah, maybe 'fluidity' wasn't the best word.

I was implying variation in the data but I can see how it wouldn't have sounded like that.

[HereSince1628]

30. The "signal" is in the trend. The trend is positive for Sanders

and it's not for campaign H>, even while the recent poll is truly a statistical tie.

We are at a -tie- from an overwhelmingly lopsided lead for H>, that can't be spun as good for H>

[jeff47]

35. This early, direction is more important than value.

This early, the specific values in a poll are utterly unreliable. What's important is the direction of the polling - who's heading up and who's heading down. That gives you an idea of who is doing well in their campaign and who is doing poorly.

Also, be sure to not conflate polls by different pollsters or national and state polls if you're comparing past results to current results. You can average all state polls or all national polls to try and take out some noise. But you shouldn't compare (for example) Quinnipiac and Gallup directly to find a trend. There's too much variation in their methodology.

[Le Taz Hot]

21. Holy. Shit.

He closed a 19-percentage point deficit to 1%. In a little over two months. NOW I know why they went to South Carolina -- their internal polls indicated this.

WOW!

[Fawke Em]

38. Well, Bernie will be in the Carolinas this weekend.

I'm next door in Tennessee and headed to SC in October.

I guess I need to get my Bernie shirt to wear while I'm there. Show Charleston who's got their back!

[Le Taz Hot]

39. Wearing Bernie gear out in public

is one of the cheapest forms of advertisements we have. And it helps if you can have 1/4-page fliers handy to hand out to people because people WILL come up to you and ask about Bernie.

I think the last I heard was one of the Charleston events held 5,000 people. I'm wondering if they'll be busting at the seems like his other events. The South Carolina trek is going to be an interesting one to watch.

[Babel_17]

23. Powerful narrative, good timing for the release of the polling data

It seems that the media has been noticing Sanders rise but apparently there's been a resistance to reporting extensively (like half of what is given to Trump) on it. "If it can be ignored, it should be ignored." might as well be emblazoned over the portal to the club for "Serious People Only" that the top commentators belong to.

But ignoring a great story means that lesser mortals in the press corps can get a leg up by reporting on it. I guess we'll see how this equation works out in the end. Will they settle for just spending more time discussing how they see Senator Sanders as being unelectable? Or will they cut right to the chase, and cut off at the knees those lesser known journalists who are gaining attention by honestly reporting on the amazing rise of the Sanders campaign? Will they "discover" that there is indeed a real race to be the nominee of the Democratic party?

That's a story in itself, imo, and one that I suspect some journalists are keeping tabs on.

[Indepatriot]

24. CLINTON=WALL ST. SANDERS=MAIN ST.

[azmom]

27. Go Bernie

[CoffeeCat]

28. Obama didn't start winning in the Iowa polls...

…until a couple of weeks before the Iowa caucuses.

Seriously. This is huge. Sanders is doing much better against Hillary in Iowa, than Obama was. And we all know that Obama won the Iowa caucuses.

She has lost so much ground in Iowa. She was ahead by more than 25 points in May and now she is down 1, according to this poll.

No wonder Biden is being floated as a trial balloon. The DNC realizes that it has to do something.

Unfortunately, for them, Biden appears to hurt Hillary more than Bernie.

This is Hillary's second time around running for President. If her support is crumbling in Iowa, that is a huge red flag for "We're just not that into you." She has the name recognition and everyone knows who she is. The electorate, at least in the first couple of states that are voting anyway, seem to be very flat on supporting her.

[TacoD]

31. I was one of the 832 likely Democratic caucus-goers polled in this poll

As I posted here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027134483

I'm proud to have helped put Bernie over Hillary!

Here is the official Quinnipiac poll results page: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=227

[CountAllVotes]

33. Thank you!

You done good my friend!

SANDERS 2016!!!!