3 national non-tracking polls released today

[Marzupialis]

Fox: Obama leads by 4 (registered voters)
Yougov Obama +3 (registered voters)
NYT/CBS Romney +1 (registered voters)

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/07/18/fox-news-poll-37-voters-say-are-better-off-than-four-years-ago/

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/wxt8kj3j6n/econToplines.pdf

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/07/romney-cbs-new-york-times-poll.php

[mucifer]

1. so people don't seem to care too much about the taxes and off shore accounts etc.

[pnwmom]

2. Not necessarily. People are still suffering from the economy,

and their worries about that might be outweighing other concerns.

[Marzupialis]

4. True. Unfortunately people blame the President...

not everyone, but many, blame the President despite the fact that Bush and Republicans blocking every good thing in Congress, plus the European crisis, etc. are the cause. If any, Obama kept us from collapsing with the stimulus. We need another stimulus by the way, and Republicans are the reason we won't have it. But I bet people think stimulus is bad because they hear Fox idiots scream about spending being bad during a crisis.

[Gwhittey]

5. True

Obama should of been more forthright we mainstream America and stimulas. He got a small stimulas than was need because GOP wanted it that way. Obama should of came back and said "Here is the stimulas it is not as much as I wanted but GOP would not compromise on more." Now the GOP is using it as talking point on how government spending doesn't stimulate the economy. Lowering Taxes on Rich and Corps(job makers.)

Yea those job makers are sitting on 3
=trillion dollars in cash reserves atm. Highest in history. Give me the a few 700 billion dollars like they gave the banks and I will make a millions of jobs.

[pnwmom]

7. You're right. But many people who are suffering the most

don't have the time to figure out the politics behind everything -- all they know is that things aren't getting better, and so they blame the incumbent.

[PoliticAverse]

3. The polls are a few days old. n/t

[WI_DEM]

6. Fox was completed yesterday and released today. Both CBS & You Gov completed on 16th

and released today.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. I'm confused at what some of you people expected?!?

Did you just expect Romney's campaign to implode this week and Obama surge to a ten-point lead? Even the fallout from Palin's disastrous interviews took time to show up in the polls. Stuff like this wasn't going to dramatically shift the race in favor of Obama. It's not about a temporary boost in the polls, either, it's about setting the narrative that slowly sinks his numbers over time.

Similarly, Kerry's numbers remained strong at the start of the Swiftboating in the summer, but over time, it did impact 'em and Bush eventually overtook him nationally and held the lead all the way through to the election. My guess is that you won't be able to see the impact of these attacks until early August. But to suggest no one cares only a week after it really ramped up is a tad ridiculous.

[coalition_unwilling]

13. +1,000,000,000 x 1,000,000,000 - Well put and definitely

needed saying.

Obama has successfully defined Romney now and Romney will be hard-pressed down the stretch to escape that definition. (See John Kerry 2004 and Michael Dukakis 1988).

[SunSeeker]

15. Thanks. I needed that.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. I agree...but we have GOT to get some good economic news. I am hoping UE goes under 8 this month

like Gallup is showing 7.9 and 7.7 seasonally adjusted.

[WI_DEM]

8. What these polls show is that while Mitt's business and taxes may be an issue for most people it ..

comes down to the economy and jobs. It's been about a week since we have been focusing on Mitt and his business and taxes and, frankly, I haven't seen any evidence that the race has changed. If anything Mitt seems to be gaining a little ground in some state polls and national polls such as PPP polls out of Iowa and New Mexico where the president's leads were cut in half since their previous polls. I think the president will need to talk about what he wants to do about the economy in the next administration and how only a dem congress working with him could make that happen.

[PoliticAverse]

9. How important are the following issues to you?

--------------- Very Important
The Economy 80%

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/wxt8kj3j6n/econToplines.pdf

[WI_DEM]

10. yep, bottom line is, like most elections, this one will be decided on the economy and jobs.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Doubt it. If that were so, Obama would be down 20 points right now.

[bornskeptic]

16. That's what the media keep telling us, but it's false.

The truth is that incumbents usually win. Of the last 13 elections involving an incumbent, the incumbent has won 10. Since the beginning of the 20th century, incumbents have won 14 out of 19. When the incumbent does lose, his personal popularity is low and he faces a challenger who is more personally popular. Clinton against Bush, Reagan against Carter, and Carter against Ford all fit that pattern. Taft was running against two opponents who were far more popular than he was in 1912. While the economy was a huge factor in 1932, it's also true that FDR's personal popularity was far higher than Hoover's. Voters will usually tell the pollsters that the economy is the most important issue, but there's little evidence that the economy is the factor on which they actually base their decisions.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. and who people think can fix it. if the meme that romney only cares about rich people becoming

richer, and Obama shows more progress, then they will stick with him, IMHO

[woolldog]

14. Hmmm

What happens when they shift to a likely voter model? Expect Romney to be up in every poll once that happens. Don't know if Obama has the mojo to pull this out.