Bernie Sanders Lays Down 2016’s New Electoral Math

[Uncle Joe]

Sanders spoke a language that DNC members are learning in a turbulent campaign season that has already produced a fair share of surprises; offering a mixture of progressive-populist agenda and political tough love. The senator from Vermont held nothing back when he spoke to the committee members—and to a crowd of Minnesota grassroots activists that had packed into the ballroom to cheer him on. “My friends, the Republican Party did not win the midterm election in November: We lost that election,” Sanders declared. “We lost because voter turnout was abysmally, embarrassingly low, and millions of working people, young people and people of color gave up on politics as usual and they stayed home. That’s a fact.”

“In my view, Democrats will not retain the White House, will not regain the Senate or the US House, will not be successful in dozens of governor races across the country, unless we generate excitement and momentum and produce a huge voter turnout,” said Sanders, who added, “With all due respect—and I do not mean to insult anyone here—that turnout, that enthusiasm, will not happen with politics as usual. The people of our country understand that given the collapse of the American middle class, and given the grotesque level of income and wealth inequality we are experiencing, we do not need more establishment politics or establishment economics.”

No one expected the DNC members, many of whom have already endorsed Clinton, to immediately embrace that message as it was delivered Friday. But it is reasonable to expect that Sanders got a good many of them thinking—and that fresh poll numbers will have them thinking even more. Not the poll numbers that show Sanders beating Clinton in the first-primary state of New Hampshire and catching up with her in the first-caucus state of Iowa that have created so much buzz. But, rather, the poll numbers that suggest Sanders could beat front-running Republicans.

(snip)

Sanders, as an insurgent candidate who proposes “a political revolution,” also beat Trump and Bush in polls conducted earlier in the summer by CNN/Opinion Research and the Public Policy Polling group. But the new polling figures are notable, as they suggest that the senator from Vermont is attracting a comparable level of support with other top Democratic prospects; in fact, in the Quinnipiac survey, he beats Bush by four points, while Clinton beats the former Florida governor by two points.

Polling is rarely definitional. But it is often instructive. The key is to recognize emerging trends and patterns. Sanders did that when—after acknowledging that few gave him much of a chance just a few months ago—he combined his talk of grassroots movements and turnout with references to November, 2016, numbers.

http://www.thenation.com/article/bernie-sanders-explains-the-new-math-of-2016-to-democratic-leaders/

[djean111]

1. Interesting.

Biden beats Republican Donald Trump 48-40 in a new Quinnipiac survey that was released just before the DNC session. He beats Republican Jeb Bush 45-39. And he beats Republican Marco Rubio 44-41.

Clinton beats Trump 45-41. She beats Bush 42-40. And she beats Rubio 44-43.

Sanders beats Trump 44-41. He beats Bush 43-39. And he essentially ties Rubio, with the Florida senator at 41 and the Vermont senator at 40.

[Uncle Joe]

2. Yes and all that taking into account that Bernie has far less name recognition

than Clinton or Biden.

[Volaris]

3. By the time the curtains come down on the first debate, though,

I don't think that will be a problem.
=)

[Uncle Joe]

4. I agree, Volaris.

Bernie's message will resonate with the people and that impact will be felt across party lines, redirecting or correcting much misdirected anger on the Republican side.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

5. +1 n/t

[Fast Walker 52]

7. we can only hope so!

[whatthehey]

21. Unfortunately there is a strong risk of overestimating the electorate

Last edited Wed Sep 2, 2015, 11:15 AM - Edit history (1)

While the inverse is proverbially difficult since Mencken and likely before, giving the mouthbreathing masses too much credit for objective rationality is a potential issue. People who make decisions based on input and reflection are indeed very likely to respond well to Sanders, but remember this is a nation where reality shows rule the airwaves and McDonalds outsells any other burger by miles. You may very well see an impassioned, unwavering articulate advocate for shared success. Trust me though millions in this age of image will see an elderly man with wild hair, a crumpled suit and a strong regional accent, and the chances are if they know him at all it's by a label synonymous in their heads with the Red Scare era. For decades we have been hammered with the association that politicians must be impeccably groomed, oleaginous in delivery and jingoistic to the point of xenophobia, if not beyond, in patriotism. They must be hearty, positive and circumspect. While politically different, the last time a politician who did not look like he stepped out of a Viagra commercial tried to use facts and honest logic in front of the primary electorate (the primary for chrissake, where only the interested and involved likely even notice) he bombed out with just a few states mostly near his home base and got 18% of the vote against a victor named Clinton. One of them was mine. The Tsongas may very well remain the same if millions of our fellow people are still idiots who vote for a news anchor rather than a President. I think they probably are.

[Uncle Joe]

27. Several dynamics have changed since 1992.

The Internet; a mere infant then had no chance to rebut misperceptions of the American Electorate and deepen their understanding of critical issues and the impact of said issues on their lives.

CEO pay to average workers salary wasn't at the extremes and for so long a period of time as it is today.

People across the world are waking up to McDonalds as well.

?quality=80

Anger has deepened on both sides of the partisan divide, the primary difference being low info Republicans have succumbed to charismatic demagogues turning the "others" Latinos, Blacks, LGBT and women into scapegoats for the nation's ills.

The best remedy to cure the misinformed can't only a piecemeal defense of the afflicted groups, because basically you're still on the defense, the anger must be Jiu Jitsued; using the energy or force of your opponent against them.

The only way to do that is to remove the curtain, expose and attack the true culprits behind much of the low info Republicans' misery, woe and anger, the less than 1% and if it doesn't change its ways, the corporate media.

Bernie Sanders more than any other candidate is doing just that.

Reagan-ism has run its course and the people are fed up with being trickled on even if some have been brainwashed into believing that it's all just golden rain.

[Keep-Left]

14. Yea but he also isnt attacked by the GOP machine yet

why do you think Clintons numbers have dropped? Its the endless attacks by the right wing.

They want Sanders to win the nomination because they feel he would be easy to beat.

The attacks of socialism/Big government would be endless. They would rip him apart and he doesn't fight back. He doesn't get into dirty politics and as much as he says its not what people want..... it does work.

I rather have Sanders as my President but Hillary is by far the safer choice.

[Fawke Em]

18. Yes he is.

Not to the level of Clinton because he's not as well known, but I've already seen a lot of "he's a SOCIALIST. Every SOCIALIST country has fallen," memes. I hear him called an "idiot who doesn't understand economics," too. He's called "old," "out of touch," and "cranky."

I've also seen the "women like rape" crap a few times and the "he can't win" stuff, as well.

BTW, Bernie does fight the Republicans and doesn't back down. He just won't turn-coat on the Democrats. The difference is that he won't cluck on about Trump's hair or Walker's Koch brothers phone call. He tears them apart on the issues.

[Rilgin]

31. One Interpretation

In answer to your question. One answer could be Right Wing Attacks. The other could be she is a bad candidate and people generally have an unfavorable response to her when it matters.

There is a good saying; "Absence makes the heart grow fonder". Over time all bad politicians favorables go up with both the public and the media as long as they are no longer in public office. This happened to Bush, Carter, Nixon, Reagan. Hillary has always had mixed approvals from both Republicans who demonize her and Democrats. When she was out of office, it is charitable to reduce criticism or gloss over problems. When they or she runs again, it is only natural that history with respect to unfavorables return.

Unlike you, it is my opinion that it is not Right Wing Attacks. Those attacks resonate in the Right Wing and Republican Party who already hate her. Some of these attacks are totally made up and some have some grain of truth but most if not all are exagerrated attacks and do not really resonate with anyone out of the people joining republican kool-aid. To the extent a republican attack resonates with other than these people usually its with a different judgement as to the severity of the offense. A good example would be Bill Clinton whose conduct Republicans thought worthy of impeachment but even those who had problems with Bill's relationship with an intern or borderline perjury in stating he had no sexual relationship, did not think it was the worst scandal in history or worth impeachment.

The real problem with Hillary's weak favorable ratings is with independents and progressive democrats (like me) who are less interested in the Republican attacks and more interested in remembering that she is an establishment candidate who made some bad politically expedient choices (war votes primarily) in her public career and is too cozy with wall street firms.

[turbinetree]

15. And lets not forget one very imporatant aspect.....................

on this Sanders is getting his money from the likes of you and me around $40.00, and that is what has the pundits worried---------in my humble opinion, and his message is growing issues


Honk --------------for a political revolution Bernie 2016

[sabrina 1]

16. And no corporate money, and no help from the Party. He did all this with only the people.

[Uncle Joe]

29. That's a good point, sabrina.

[teach me everything]

34. Also a very important point here: Everyone is organizing themselves for Bernie

tools are already available, and meetups are now nearly on a daily basis to plan and identify voters, and make sure they are all informed.

Plenty of volunteers, and more resources can be focused as appropriately.

[ibegurpard]

6. Stop stopping people from supporting Hillary!

You're mean!

[Demeter]

8. Thinking? Why, that's UNAmerican!

Go Bernie!

Thanks Uncle Joe. I appreciate your posts on Bernie (because I really don't have the resources to do it myself).

[Enthusiast]

9. Kicked and recommended!

[KoKo]

10. K&R!

[Uncle Joe]

11. Thanks to everyone that has posted so far, I'm off to an appointment, will be back later.

Last edited Wed Sep 2, 2015, 09:11 AM - Edit history (1)

Peace to all of you.

[MuseRider]

12. It is hard to stop this kind of momentum

and it will grow. I doubt he would have had a chance if his message did not resonate so strongly. It would have been a coronation.

The trends all look good, into the debates they will begin to really show how it will eventually trend. The man has been working tirelessly, working hard for this. I do not follow Hillary but I see O'Malley working crowds as well. Every now and again I will see Hillary has been out somewhere. I don't think it does her good to be out talking because it does not seem to be helping but staying above it all seems to not work either.

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

13. Just wait for the quake....

Once the MSM is forced to recognize Bernie and his word goes out to all.
That's when the fun begins.

Go Bernie!

[Octafish]

17. Bernie did the Math.

He's got the message. Best of all, he's got INTEGRITY.

Thank you for the heads-up, Uncle Joe!

[moobu2]

19. Nobody I know is excited about Bernie Sanders in the least

quite the opposite really.

[lonestarnot]

22. You live in a gated community?

[moobu2]

25. No, do you live in your moms basement?

[lonestarnot]

26. No, a tree-house then?

[HappyPlace]

32. LOL!

mom's basement!

WTF?

[Scootaloo]

28. I'm excited.

Hello, my name is Scootaloo. I'm 33 year old chef who live in the Seattle area, and I'm quite chuffed about Bernie Sanders' candidacy and chances.

There. Now you know someone who's excited about Bernie Sanders. I'll bet you feel better now.

[WI_DEM]

20. He's right in off year elections both in 2010 & 2014 Dem turnout was horrible

especially among the young, hispanics and African-Americans.

[restorefreedom]

23. i object strongly to the repeated use of the term "insurgent candidate"

an insurgent is one who is rebelling against the entrenched. bernie is as much of a legitimate candidate as any other. this is another sneaky way of suggesting that the nom belongs to someone else and he is trying to ruin the party.

words matter. and the entrenched are using every opportunity to get their message out that the nom is predestined, and anyone who challenges it is a rebel.

shameful behavior in a so called democracy.

[WillyT]

24. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

Thanks for the thread Uncle Joe !!!

[KoKo]

30. Indeed!

[yodermon]

33. Notice how he DID NOT snobbishly blame the ELECTORATE for the mid term losses

as most establishment Dems do, even here on DU.