Which is the outlier?

[hootinholler]

The latest Quinnipiac poll has Hillary sliding 15 points in the last month leading Bernie by 23.

The latest PPP poll shows Hillary not moving at all and maintaining a 35 point lead.



I'm thinking the PPP is the outlier mainly because it showed 0 movement.

Why am I wrong?

[Agschmid]

1. National polls don't matter much in a primary.

Also we will find out starting in January...

[Adrahil]

3. While that is true.....

We get a lot more of them than we do the state polls at this pointand it makes it easier to determine trends. The state polls are very noisy right now.

[Agschmid]

4. Agree.

[Adrahil]

2. You can't tell based on just those...

It will become clear which is the outlier over time.

However, you do make the mistake of figuring that the PPP poll is an outlier becuase it shows no movement in Sanders' direction. A poll which makes a big jump, like the Quinn poll, is more likely to be an outlier than one that Shows relatively little change. For example, the Fox poll showing Sanderss with 30 percent is looking pretty outliery now.

In practice, they are probably both off a bit in opposite directions. The truth probably lies around Clinton in the low 50's and Sanders in the low-mid 20's, a moderate improvement for Sanders over the last month.

[SonderWoman]

5. PPP is rated the most accurate pollster.

Quinnipiac didn't make top 25.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I averaged the last five polls and came up with this:

I averaged the last five polls and came up with this:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

HRC 51%
BS 22%