The Hillary Doubters Are Wrong

[applegrove]

The Hillary Doubters Are Wrong

By Jamelle Bouie at Slate

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/08/hillary_clinton_is_still_a_huge_favorite_to_win_the_democratic_primary.html

"SNIP...............



Despite the reporting around it—which has treated her as a losing candidate—the latest Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton with a wide lead over her opponents. She wins 45 percent of the Democratic Party, to 22 percent for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and 18 percent for Vice President Joe Biden. Aggregate polls show a similar picture; in the Huffington Post Pollster average, Clinton holds 48.9 percent of the primary vote, compared with 22.5 percent for Sanders and 12.5 percent for Biden. There’s no contest.


There’s an easy and obvious rejoinder: What about 2008? Wasn’t Clinton winning at this point in that primary; wasn’t she “inevitable”? And look what happened: She lost to a popular upstart with the public behind him.


This sounds persuasive, but it doesn’t fit the facts. As writer Harry Enten notes for FiveThirtyEight, Clinton was much weaker in the previous primary than she is now. “Back in 2008,” he writes, “she was trailing in early Iowa polls. She earned only a third of the vote in early New Hampshire polls and was below 40 percent nationally.” Now, by contrast, she’s well ahead in national polls, well ahead in Iowa, and only somewhat behind in New Hampshire.


Moreover, because primaries aren’t popularity contests, the most important measure of success is party support. Barack Obama wasn’t an upstart; behind his run was the party machinery, or at least the part that didn’t want Clinton. Today, where do Democratic fundraisers stand? What do Democratic interests groups think? How will Democratic lawmakers act?



..............SNIP"

[djean111]

1. If she is such a lock, why all the assiduous hammering from her supporters?

Was Total Assimilation some sort of assignment or directive? Strange.

And, really, this assumes that we don't care about issues, just elect-ability. And money. And that the only reason a Democrat would not be a Hillary supporter is because they think she cannot win.
Kind of a weird article, really. Lists all of her weaknesses and then says ignore them, as if this is just a game of some sort.

[quickesst]

7. haha

as·sid·u·ous
əˈsijo͞oəs/
adjective
showing great care and perseverance.
"she was assiduous in pointing out every feature"
synonyms: diligent, careful, meticulous, thorough, sedulous, attentive, conscientious, punctilious, painstaking, rigorous, particular; persevering
"she was assiduous in pointing out every feature"

Why, thank you.

[Chan790]

8. I don't think it was a complement.

The last time I heard the term in a political context, it was being applied to Ken Starr.

[djean111]

9. Shhhhh....I was enjoying the moment........

[quickesst]

13. Really?

Dang! I'm hurt now.

[left-of-center2012]

10. If she is such a lock, why all the assiduous hammering from her supporters?

Maybe the Clintonistas will stop attacking the Bernie crowd and sending alerts willy-nilly.

[Warren DeMontague]

23. Because inevitability has a certain Wile E. Coyote aspect to it.

It is important that all the good children BELIEVE or the magic may not work!

[djean111]

26. Bwhahahaha! Thank you for the laugh! And yep. n/t

[daleanime]

2. Oh, when it comes to Hillary....

I have no doubt.

[Scuba]

17. Pro-war, pro-Wall Street, pro-fracking, pro-Keystone XL, pro-H1B Visas, pro-TPP. What's to doubt?

[daleanime]

18. Exactly.....

[HassleCat]

3. Still in front

Hillary Clinton is still the undisputed front runner, polling well in most places, probably in front even where she isn't polling so well. Bernie Sanders is catching up at a moderate pace in some places, more slowly in other places. If you extend the graph, draw the lines to the right at their present slope, Sanders does not catch Clinton soon enough. Of course, something dramatic could happen. The voters could suddenly decide they want a progressive, a democratic socialist as a candidate. Something very good regarding Sanders, or very bad regarding Clinton, or both, could happen to nudge that along. I wouldn't call the voters "fickle," exactly, but they are sometimes intrigued by new ideas, things that depart from the accustomed way of doing things. It can happen.

[Cry]

4. It only solidifies my support for Bernie

I am now 99.1% for Bernie. I still may be 0.9% for Clinton, but darn it, she's losing me!

She is not handling the press well, she is still getting hammered with the email "scandal" (I consider it a non-issue like everyone else - there are even worse failings that is GOP-ready if she is the nominee. I already know one thing - Republicans have NOTHIN' on Bernie that hasn't been tried on already.

People are really starting to solidify the support for Bernie, because he really does bring about change from the tired old center-right government that we've had to endure for close to 40 years. %he income inequality is much worse than it was before FDR kicked the New Deal to correct the income inequality and kicked off what started the middle class. It was the Republicans who started stealing from the middle class in the 80s after Carter was defeated.

Bernie will end the 40+ years of center-right way of thinking and shift America back to the left, rebuild the middle class, and restart the engine that made America great.

[Scootaloo]

5. This is an interesting line...

Moreover, because primaries aren’t popularity contests, the most important measure of success is party support.

Voting is just for show, I suppose?

[djean111]

6. If the DNC could have arranged that, they would have. Working on it, though! n/t

[Qutzupalotl]

11. This isn't some popularity contest! This is politics!

[PowerToThePeople]

12. "the most important measure of success is party support"

How about voter support?



#OligarchyApproved

[mylye2222]

16. Unfortunely. Sadly its true.

Party support matters more as 90% of politicians does not consider people as who they are. People are reduced to ballots in their minds.

[Cha]

14. Mahalo apple!

[applegrove]

21. Hey!

[Cha]

22. Kick.. glad you're for Hillary~

[applegrove]

24. Yes. And I so want to get this whole email thing over and done with. I want it all out. So that

there will be context that Hillary was just minding her own business and nothing nefarious was going on. The sooner the better.

[Cha]

25. Mahalo!

[mylye2222]

15. I think its also a matter of political mood.

Back in 2008, US was just exiting from disastreaus Bu$h years. And people wanted a radical change, and HRC reminded to much of Establishment , Washington hawkish policies.
Although IMHO she hasnt changed that much, now the mood is different. As the "Obama Adventure" comes to its end, people maybe are turning back to a more familliar figure. But who know what can happen, with Bernie becoming more and more popular? Months in politics are like centuries!

[hootinholler]

19. OMG!11!!!11 Hillary's still ahead in the polls!!!

Let's all panic!

[livetohike]

20. All candidates have to get their voters to the polls. Whomever has the best ground game will win.

It's that simple and Hillary has experience and experienced people working on her campaign. It will be hard for a person who hasn't run a national campaign before to catch up.

[riversedge]

27. and I will canvass every free moment I have

[oasis]

28. Another tugboat of reason guiding the Goodship Democrat into the port of reality.

Toot, toot.