Nate Silver's take on the Voter ID Law issue - worth reading

[NRaleighLiberal]

Measuring the Effects of Voter Identification Laws
By NATE SILVER

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/measuring-the-effects-of-voter-identification-laws/#more-32135

"Almost every day, I get e-mails and Twitter messages asking me about the effect of voter identification laws on turnout. Most of these messages, I presume, are from Democrats. They worry that more onerous laws, like those in Pennsylvania, could make it more difficult for Democratic-leaning voting groups like African-Americans and young voters to participate in this November’s election.

These concerns are perfectly logical — although it is also possible to exaggerate the effects that these laws might have. Academic studies suggest that they very probably reduce turnout, but not by more than a couple of percentage points. And although Democratic voters may be more affected by the laws, some Republican voters will be disenfranchised by them, too.

As I mentioned, there are quite a number of academic studies that seek to evaluate the effect of identification laws on voter turnout; John Sides has compiled a list of them here; or you can do some searching for yourself on Google Scholar.

On the surface, these studies seem to disagree with one another about whether or not there is any effect on turnout from harsher voter identification laws. But if you read them in more detail, you’ll find that much of the disagreement is semantic rather than substantive."

snip

[BlueToTheBone]

1. A couple of percentage points may be critical

in cases of election fraud.

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. Yes, I agree - posted it just so we can see how one number crunchers view it.

[Robbins]

3. Another thing to consider

Some seniors who may vote against Obama could also by these laws.

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. yes. I will be interesting to watch how this all develops as we approach Nov.

Just ONE disenfranchised vote that doesn't occur is one too many.

[AlinPA]

5. A possible 1.2% shift to the GOP in PA because of the Voter ID law. That will hurt.

The Governor will do everything possible to get IDs to the GOP heavy areas in PA and stop any efforts in the Democratic areas. The group contracted by the state to "help' in getting IDs to people is a GOP-led group who just did a Romney fundraiser. (Bravo Group)
Sunday paper (Post-Gazette) had this story where Bravo is mentioned:
http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/news/politics-state/rush-is-on-to-help-pennsylvania-voters-obtain-ids-644741/

[Cosmocat]

6. WTF

I mean, I just saw that on facebook yesterday.

Will there ever be a time when the people in this state get fed up with this republican governor, house, senate literally doing nothing other than working to get republicans elected?

A 1.2% shift won't change the presidential outcome, but it WILL further tighten up the Rs already caged advantage in the House and senate districts. They know they may not get the presidential vote to go there way, but it will still benefit them.

[cally]

7. I think that's a must read article for those of us interested in politics

I would love to read the analysis done by the Obama campaign but I'm sure that won't be released.

Thanks for posting this.

I now have too many tomatoes to eat fresh. I'm going to make sauce---lucky me. I've had many zucchini, a few eggplants, and enough cucumbers for many salads. How is your garden going?

[NRaleighLiberal]

8. Hi friend! Our garden is now really pumping out the stuff -

the squash and cukes have been nice and gradual....but we have a lot of beans, beets, eggplant -and tomatoes! Just finished canning 7 quarts (slow going since I need to do seed saving from most of them!)......bit off too much (as usual).

All good here.....nice to see your post! Missing the old days, of course (our great team!)