The Gary Johnson factor

[DCBob]

From the Politico..

Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson’s chances of becoming president haven’t changed much over the course of the 2012 cycle, during which he ran for the Republican presidential nomination, participated in two national debates, dropped out of the primaries and reentered the race as the Libertarian Party nominee.

<snip>

Early polling has shown Johnson taking more from Romney, although pollsters say he’s peeling off votes from Obama as well. Johnson has said he expects to be on the ballot in all 50 states.

If there’s an opportunity for Johnson to make a difference anywhere, it’s likely in Mountain states such as his native New Mexico, and Colorado and Nevada, where he could shave votes from the major-party candidates. In a close race that neither side thinks will be an electoral landslide, Johnson could make a real difference — especially with Ron Paul’s libertarian-leaning backers now up for grabs.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77754.html

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My comments:

I think Johnson could be a significant factor in more than just NM, CO and NM.. and clearly he is going to hurt Romney more than Obama. If Romney continues to flounder, as he is now, more and more RW Libertarians will jump ship and go to Johnson. This guy is a legitimate candidate. He's a former NM Gov and his policies sound reasonable... from a Libertarian viewpoint. His biggest problem is nobody takes him seriously.. yet.

[brooklynite]

1. Disagree...

The people who are going to vote Libertarian in the Presidential election, are the people who were ALWAYS going to vote Libertarian. Gary Johnson made no impact on the minds of voters in the Primaries, and I don't see any ability he has to do in the General.

[DCBob]

2. As we all know primary voters are a much different group than GE voters.

The Republican primary voters are mostly hard-core RW cons who would never vote for Libertarian like Johnson.. he has too many liberal viewpoints. Im not saying Johnson will be another Perot but I suspect he is going to get at least 5% which could be the difference in some tight battleground states.

[Marzupialis]

4. Gary Johnson will get at least 5%?

Despite the fact that no Libertarian Party candidate has ever gotten more than half a percent? That's a very bold prediction.

[DCBob]

5. RECENT POLLING: Gary Johnson at 13% in New Mexico, 5% Nationally

Public Policy Polling reports that former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson is still in double-digits in his home state. Polling at 13%, Johnson’s support is remarkably widespread and draws almost equally from Obama and Romney in the state. In fact, as PPP notes, among partisan voters Johnson only takes a significant share of Republicans, but he wins 24% of independents, thus eliminating the President’s lead with that group.

http://www.uncoveredpolitics.com/2012/07/19/recent-polling-gary-johnson-at-13-in-new-mexico-5-nationally/

The question is how much his candidacy will impact the race. According to those recent polls he pulled almost as much from each candidate. However, I think in the end he will help Obama and hurt Romney and could be the difference in some close races.

Is that also a "bold prediction"?

[Marzupialis]

6. you predicted he would get 5% NATIONALLY

Note that I took issue with a very specific assertion, and you still did not address it at all. I did not address his standing in New Mexico.

Here is what this boils down to:

""It’s common for third-party candidates to poll higher months out from the election date," he said. "Eventually folks decide to vote for a candidate with a serious chance of winning.""

PPP's main man said (regarding the PPP poll giving Johnson a 7%: "he thought the results in his poll exaggerated Johnson's real standing and predicted he won't sustain that level into the fall." http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/jun/06/gary-johnson/gary-johnson-tells-jon-stewart-he-has-8-percent-su/

Bob Barr was polling 6% in both Zogby and Rasmussen several months before November. At the end, he got 0.39%.

List of Libertarian candidates and their votes: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/nsp2011122902/



Again. Now that you know that July polls for Libertarian candidates have very low predictive power, do you still "suspect" that Gary Johnson will get 5%?

[DCBob]

7. yes.

[think]

3. Ron Paul managed to peel off some neocons and turn their eyes toward libertarian

values. So thankfully these republicans are now more antiwar and anti unchecked military spending and will support a candidate like Johnson rather than the neoconish Rmoney. (I never know where Rmoney really stands)

We can't afford to spend one TRILLION dollars on war and security every year and have any funds for social programs. I welcome discussion of bringing this spending more in line with reality from any party.

[Daniel537]

8. I could see him possibly shaking things up in Montana

Obama only lost it by 2% last time around, so if Johnson were to mount a serious campaign there it could possibly sneak Obama in for the win. But i don't think he'll do as well outside a few of these Big Sky/Western states, third parties always get more support before Election Day than on it, since people tend to come to the realization that they don't want to throw away their vote.