July 14: Another Recount in Florida?

[MindMover]

We haven’t usually been running forecast updates on the weekend, but a Florida poll will always get our attention. In this case, it’s a new poll from Mason-Dixon, released on Saturday, that shows Barack Obama with a nominal 1-percentage point lead there over Mitt Romney.

Our model shows Florida as close as can be. It projects the Nov. 6 result as Mr. Obama 49.5 percent, Mr. Romney 49.4 percent — an outcome that would be close enough to trigger another recount.

Mr. Obama has led in the majority of Florida polls recently — five of seven since June 1. The model hedges against these polls a bit because Florida is normally a bit Republican-leaning and since its economy.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/14/july-14-another-recount-in-florida/?smid=tw-nytimespolitics&seid=auto

[greiner3]

1. Nate Silver;

For president!

[davidpdx]

2. It may be close, especially with the Republicans trying to purge voters

Hopefully it doesn't come down to a recount. We saw how well that went last time.

[demwing]

3. As a Florida resident I submit that Obama invest

elsewhere. Not because he doesn't have a damn good shot at the state - he does. But because the dynamics of this election are making my crazy-assed state only marginally important this cycle.

With the new Blue coalition forming in the Southwest, and with Virginia, a win in Florida might not mean the difference between an EC loss or a win, it will mean the difference between an EC win and a landslide.

So don't give up on Florida, Mr President, but don't make this state crucial. We are way to unreliable an ally in this oh so important election.