Oh look at that, Clinton's odds in the predictive markets increased slightly today.

[Godhumor]

Democratic nominee:
Clinton - 73%
Biden - 12%
Sanders - 12%

General:
Clinton 44%
Bush 19%
Biden, Trump 7%
Rubio 6%
Sanders 4%

Party in White House:
Democratic 58%
Republican 42%

From Predictwise.com

[leftofcool]

1. I love this!

[Gothmog]

2. Thanks for posting

I still miss the old Intrade market even though it was violating US law

[brooklynite]

8. THere's always PADDY POWER

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=482040

Primary
Clinton 1/3
Biden 5/1
Sanders 6/1

General
Clinton 11/10
Trump 13/2
Bush 3/1
Walker 12/1
Sanders 12/1
Kasich 20/1

[Gothmog]

9. The bookies are having fun with this race

[Rstrstx]

3. A more comprehensive site with numerous bookies

Based out of the UK apparently.

Anyways, for the overall winner:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

Various betters are putting HRC at 44-53% chance of winning the general, with most either at 11/10 (47.6%) or 1 (50%). Jeb is still in second place at 20-22%. Trump is 3rd at 12-14%, Biden 4th at 7-11% and Sanders and Rubio 5th at 7-9% (Sanders has equal or slightly better odds than Rubio at 15 of 17 sites).

Democratic nominee:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/democrat-candidate

HRC running at 71 to 80%, with 2/7 (77.8%) probably the most common. Biden is slightly ahead at each site in 2nd place vs Sanders (most are 5 to 1 or 16.7% for Biden versus 6 to 1 or 14.3% for Sanders)

Party in White House:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winning-party

These are strange numbers, at 56-64% for the Dems and 44-48% chance for Repubs, exceeding 100% on most sites (for example bet365 has Dems at a nearly 64% chance of winning vs a 44% chance for the Repubs). Maybe they know something we don't. Hmmm.

[DanTex]

7. The reason the sum exceeds 100% is because of the house cut.

For example, if there were only two possibilities, and they were both even odds (i.e. 50% implied probability) then the house wouldn't make any money. So in this case, you'd see both choices priced at something like 10-11, slightly over 50%. This way, if the house collects (let's say) $11K of bets for each choice for a total of $22K, then whoever wins, the house pays out the $11K bet plus $10K winnings to the winning bets, and keeps $1K for itself.

A crude way correct for this and estimate the actual probabilities is to simply add up the percentages and then divide each percentage by the total. So if the Dem chances are say 60% and the GOP is at 46%, that would come out to about 56.6% for Dems and 43.4% for GOP.

[jfern]

5. They increased a lot in October 2007

[Cha]

6. Who cares about 2007? this is now.. That's where I'm living. mahalo Godhumor.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. She's up to 74 now

I notice the Cavs are the early favorite for the 015-016 title. I would take the field.

http://www.predictwise.com/node/4129

When he was with the Heat the Heat were even money or a bit higher...