2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538: "Most Of The Biden Speculation Is Malarkey"
Nate Silver, editor in chief:
The irony is that the media has exaggerated all sorts of threats to Clinton...but then you have the one thing that would be a tangibly bad sign for her campaign the vice president of the United States running for the nomination against her! and there are lots of smart takes about how it could help Clinton.... But the other big problem (as we and others have pointed out before) is that Biden doesnt have much rationale to run other than if Clinton has trust/scandal problems. He might never come out and say it, but that would be the whole basis for his campaign. They dont really differ in any meaningful way on policy....Hes a party guy. Hes the vice president. Hes not likely to run unless he thinks its in Democrats best interest....Its possible that Biden assesses the problem and miscalculates. But running for president would be a calculated decision on his behalf. And, by the way, if you read the reporting on Biden carefully, it suggests that the decision is very, very calculated. ...If you want data, and Bidens camp is looking at the same data, then they shouldnt be running in the first place. Unless they think the scandal will be Clintons undoing.... White liberals might not like her as much as white moderates, Hispanics, or African-Americans, but as weve argued before, their support for Sanders is more an indication that they like him than that they dislike Clinton. Some of the reporting around what Bidens coalition would be doesnt make any sense. See, for example, from Politico:Bidens circle has identified what they see as their potential voting blocs: Reagan Democrats, Jews, an LGBT base that largely credits him with pushing President Barack Obama into supporting gay marriage, and Rust Belt voters. They believe hell benefit from better stump skills than any of the other candidates running.
Theres no evidence that any of these groups ... have very much in common....I saw some article that offhandedly asserted Biden was polling exceptionally well given that he wasnt in the race yet. Polling at 12 percent or 15 percent or 18 percent among members of his own party doesnt seem that great to me for a guy who is vice president of the United States.
Harry Enten, senior political writer:
... why would Biden run? Sure, hes in his 70s and this is his last shot, but he also has a family to take care of. Hed likely only run if he concludes he has a better than nominal chance of winning. And that conclusion would be quite different from what the current metrics, such as endorsements, suggest. ...Remember when there was talk about whether Chris Christie would get into the 2012 race? Or whether Fred Thompson would get into the 2008 race? Or Wesley Clark into the 2004 race? Those guys were tied or leading in the primary polling at the time. Bidens best percentage so far has been 18 percent. Hes down nearly 30 percentage points to Clinton. Clinton is still in a ridiculously strong position.
link to the whole enlightening discussion
mikeysnot
(4,757 posts)about the 1:20 mark..
https://screen.yahoo.com/cold-opening-vice-presidential-debate-000000994.html
ericson00
(2,707 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)538, clearly, did not poll DU!
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)lmfuckinao
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Here's a tip, if any are listening: how about actually giving some straight and concise policy proposals and displaying real leadership instead of evasive sound bites?
You want to change the narrative? Thats how you do it.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I do know that she's hitting several major outlets today with "The email scandal is bunkum" talking points, and concurrently we're seeing a lot of "Joe Biden is NOT running!" talk.
Mayhaps I see connections where they are not, but, there you go.
My advice to Candidate Clinton, again, if she wants to change the channel, is to start acting decidedly Un-Clinton-y and come out with a whole bunch of wonky yet surprising specific policy proposals on all the potentially controversial issues her beltway advisers are telling her to avoid.
But it doesn't matter.... no one listens to me, you've figured that out by now, right sea?
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I know you feel the same way!
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)you made an accusation silvers is a surrogate. i ask. i get....
could be
you are exactly right. where would one have "deep content and issues-based political repartee"
with an accusation and a ... maybe
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)And there's a big uptick in "Biden NOT Running Ooog!" grunts.
And Silver comes out with this.
Are they related? Fugggg if I know, sea.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)NOT taking the advice of an anti-supporter.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Whoever's writing her jokes, in particular.
"What, with a cloth?" That's some funny shit, right there, if you're a member of the AOL demographic.
....also, what's an "anti-supporter"? Does that just mean I'm a supporter, traveling backwards in time? (might make sense, because I used to like her more than I do now) If I meet an actual supporter, will we both disappear in a sudden burst of energy?
JI7
(89,250 posts)I don't see jewish and lgbt leaving her for him.
Reagan dems are racists who will never vote for him.most are supporting donald trump.
The only group i can see him doing well with is lower income white men.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)between Biden and HRC, no.
My big problem with Biden is his history of lovin' him some drug war, although I'm not holding my breath for Hillary to actually take a clear stance on that, or marijuana legalization, any time soon either.
Interestingly enough, though (and I realize I'm in an extra-progressive part of the country) all the Jewish and LGBT Dems I know here are supporting Sanders.