2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRasmussen: Romney ahead by 15 in North Dakota
According to today's Rasmussen poll, Romney is ahead by 15 points in North Dakota.
Friday, July 13, 2012
Considering that this is supposed to be a bad year for Obama, shouldn't Romney be doing better than that? Afterall, since this is a Rasmussen poll, they may have added about 5 points on for Romney as it is.
Romney - 51
Obama - 36
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_dakota/election_2012_north_dakota_president
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I post whatever polls are out on a given day. This was the only state poll released today from what I see at RCP. That's why I posted it. I had no idea it was going to create such a controversy.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
There was no agenda behind it other than to show that even Rasmussen doesn't have Romney that far ahead.
If you scroll down this board, you'll see I've posted Gallup polls, Pew Research polls, and many others.
But if it's such a problem, perhaps I'll stop posting them altogether. . .
Response to Rosanna Lopez (Reply #14)
Post removed
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Why are you attacking me? If you don't like this thread or don't understand the purpose of studying polling in red states as a barometer of support in other areas, then stay out of it.
You certainly aren't helping the Democratic Party by insulting its supporters on this board.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)If you're not one of them, ignore the thread. It's also not up to you to decide who is and isn't a Dem.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I never said she wasnt a Democrat... however with Democrats like her who needs Republicans..
demwing
(16,916 posts)perhaps you should go have sex with something
Hippo_Tron
(25,453 posts)So, how the President and Rmoney poll there (even if it's Assmussen) is quite interesting to those of us who care about the down ballot races.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I'm glad to find another person who realizes this!
Not sure why a couple of people are making patronizing comments like "You do realize this is a red state, don't you?" I think it's they who don't understand the way politics, turnout, and down-ballot working corresponds to the Presidential race.
pscot
(21,024 posts)Don't let it cloud your wah.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)If there are lots of these sort of posters here, it might not be my type of place.
Look at how much time this whole thread and all the debating about one simple poll has turned into!
One ND poll that I explained might be a positive for Obama because it shows Romney not doing as well as he should be in a red state, and all hell breaks loose and results in an investigation of my motives and background.
It sure surprised me, even though I'm a lawyer used to cross-examination and debate.
pscot
(21,024 posts)of the President's most ardent admirers who seem to go around looking for imagined slights to Mr.Obama. The paranoia runs deep in some of them. Your post seems to have triggered some extra-sensory alarm system that only they can hear. A low post count makes the fur on the backs of their necks rise. By now a half dozen DUers peobably have you on ignore and have blocked personal communications from you. We're an unruly crowd. There's some real intelligence on display here from time to time. However, it is the internet. Don't take it personally.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)There will be no coattails or shirttails or underwaretails. I suspect Dems in ND are pretty much on their own and probably do not want any public support from the national campaign. It might do more harm than good.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Romney is probably not as many as 15 points ahead since this is a Rasmussen poll.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I doubt the Obama campaign will have any offices there. Waste of time, money and effort.
demwing
(16,916 posts)that's all, just consider it
monmouth
(21,078 posts)Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)But I'm not sure what you are saying.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)other polls by fewer than that.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Ipsos & Pew usually have good numbers for Obama, but we can't just always go with the higher polls and pick the ones we like. As Nate Silver says on 538, these pollsters usually show good numbers for Obama, just as Rasmussen & Gallup usually show good numbers for Romney.
One has to average the polls together, and currently the national lead only gives Obama about a 2-3 point average. At the moment, Nate Silver is still predicting a close popular vote in November, although Obama has a 50-60 vote lead in the Electoral College, which is most important.
Perhaps by November the popular vote lead will reflect a wider gap as with the Electoral College.
Btw, McClatchy/Marist has their new poll out today and it gives Obama a 2 point lead over Romney. Unfortunately Romney does well with Independents, and on the issue of the Economy. Why I don't know . . .
MADem
(135,425 posts)You do not, evidently, understand the politics on the ground there.
And you do know Rasmussen is a wingnut tool poll. You can wipe your ass with it, given how little it comports with reality.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)How many times does this have to be explained?
1. If you read what I wrote when I posted the poll (and what I've written on other threads), it has already been stated multiple times that Rasmussen inflates Republican support and that this has to be taken into account. I KNOW that!
2. You seem to be the one who doesn't understand politics, and there's no need to be so patronizing (and possibly sexist?) as if I'm the one who doesn't get it. I didn't say ND was a winnable state in the Presidential election - I said that if Romney is only doing so-so there it probably means he isn't doing well enough to win nationally in the swing states.
3. You don't seem to realize that ND does matter because there is a Senate race going on there to fill Kent Conrad's seat. So encouraging as many people to come out and vote Democratic is important to maintain control of the Senate, which is balancing on a knife edge right now.
4. Incidentally, on one of Karl Rove's Electoral College maps earlier this year he had Obama as being competitive in ND. So perhaps he doesn't expect Romney to do as well there as traditionally a Republican does.
MADem
(135,425 posts)I know plenty about politics--I've been a student of it and a participant in many campaigns at all levels for well over half a century. I am not a sexist, you have ZERO justification for flinging that accusation, and your calling me one is a direct personal insult that reflects very poorly on YOU. How many times does THAT need to be explained to you?
Your passive "it has been stated Rassmussen inflates Republican support" makes me wonder why you would bother to USE shitty, right wing data on a DEMOCRATIC web site? That's like saying "Well, this is horseshit, but let me waste your time with it anyway."
It is not at all unreasonable for a sentient person to wonder why would anyone do such a thing?
I have followed the Kent Conrad seat replacement race--if you'd follow it, instead of snarking at me, you'd notice that the Dem running is playing the "Run Away From Barack" game, rejecting him on a number of fronts in order to be competitive. If we want that (D) Senator, we'd do well to let that shit play out without jumping in there with a competing ground game for a few shitty electoral votes that are a long shot anyway.
If North Dakotans end up voting for POTUS in massive numbers, they'll do it for one of two reasons--first, because they like his position on something near and dear to them--like guns or oil pipelines (this is unlikely) or second, because they look at Shittsy, see him as an insufferable, lying tool, and just can't bring themselves to pull the lever for that idiot asshole. In the second case, it will all be down to Mittsy, not Barack.
Now, you tell me that ONE OF KARL ROVE'S ELECTORAL MAPS show Obama as competitive---so you want us to listen to Karl Rove now? You're making this claim with a straight face?
Good grief, you really can't help yourself, can you? Karl Rove is not, nor has he ever been, an "authority" with regard to Democratic campaign strategy, nor is his opinion valued on a Democratic message board. See, if he tells us to jump down, we'd be well advised to jump up. HE DOESN'T GIVE DEMS GOOD ADVICE. Gee, what's Dick Morris saying we should do? How about Sarah Palin? Oh, noooo--what will happen to us if we don't follow THEIR guidelines?
Here's a hint--when you're talking the "best strategy" for a politician, don't quote the enemy and pretend it's authoritative. You're flying a huge red flag when you do that kind of shit.
I don't buy a single thing you're saying. Sell that "gloom and doom' faux-sincere "concern" to someone who was born last night. No sale here.
Thank you for your thorough and thoughtful explanation.
YOU ROCK!
MADem
(135,425 posts)I am a lifelong learner at the "Judge Judy--Don't Pee Down My Leg And Tell Me It's Raining" school.
I also object to being lectured to by someone who claims to be a resident of Canada on the Twitter site she specifically invited us to read, but who is telling us here on DU that she is a lawyer from Los Angeles:
There's a bit of dissonance happening, here, and this just feels like very familiar territory to me. I don't think it is unseemly to take note of these feelings.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I lived in Canada for several years when I was younger and still have Canadian relatives, so yes, I take an interest in Canadian politics as well. Is there something wrong with that? You'll notice that I regularly attack the CONSERVATIVE party of Canada, just as I attack the Republicans every day.
And what sounds 'familiar'?
You seem very suspicious and conspiratorial and are always looking for 'clues' that you think prove something. I'm not sure what.
Bottom line is that my Tweets prove I am on the left of the political perspective, not the right, and it is for suggesting otherwise that you owe me an apology.
Not that I expect one.
MADem
(135,425 posts)You sound like a Canadian to me, with your use of "we" and that unnecessary "u" that one finds over the pond as well. The vast majority of your posts before the last two or three months are detailed conversations about Canadian politics, along with a lot of anti-circumcision declarations and conversations with porn actors, actors appearing in The Borgias, and some guy who stars in Young and the Restless. There are no ordinary people you're talking to, that I can see. Your interest in the details of US politics is more recent.
Your tweets most certainly are to the left, both the ones that focus on Canadian politics as well as the American political comments. And they are far more positive than your posts here.
I couldn't help but notice at least one tweet of yours that disparages Rasmussen as a polling source--so why even use that source here?
Response to MADem (Reply #117)
davidpdx This message was self-deleted by its author.
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,330 posts)progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)uppityperson
(115,677 posts)if a rw poll like this shows Romeny ahead by that little, I'd expected them to say worse.
MADem
(135,425 posts)within the actual MOE, and fluffs up a phony MOE to let people go even further afield with their fantasizing.
It's a worthless organization. The only reason he gets away with it is because he games the numbers so that his overall figures aren't too out-of-whack.
southernyankeebelle
(11,304 posts)appreciate your posting but sometimes you got to take any poll with a grain of salt. Don't stop posting. We appreciate it. Am sure there weren't any harm meant.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,235 posts)Don't know if there's an agenda, but glad someone else noticed as well.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)but if I were a betting man.... (cant finish this statement as it would violate DU rules)
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)What's wrong with questioning some of the polls? Isn't that what's being done on this thread?
Of COURSE I question polls - that's what you're supposed to do in politics! You analyze them and break them down and question both the good ones and the bad ones. The DNC very much questioned the Bloomberg poll last month giving Obama a 13-point lead, I can tell you!
It's always best to run as if you're behind. The Obama campaign does not want people just assuming he's ahead everywhere and to only look at the good polls, as you appear to be doing.
Btw, I've been fairly polite so far, but you do realize it's ridiculous (and somewhat insulting) to imply that I have some sort of ulterior right-wing agenda, right?
Scroll down my Twitter feed for the past year, please, and tell me what Party I attack on a regular basis . . .
http://twitter.com/RosannaLopez101
I'm almost tempted to send in a complaint and ask for a 'Jury' to evaluate the appropriateness of your comments! : )
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Just like the Mittster!
Don't compare me to Romney! That really is insulting!
Have you scrolled down my Twitter feed yet?
I'd appreciate it if you did so . . . let me know what you think.
You might even like my photo . . .
DCBob
(24,689 posts)You could be the next Obama girl!!
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I suppose I'll take that as a compliment, so I guess you're improving.
But seriously, if you see the hundreds of Tweets I've made over the past year, I think you'd get an idea that on a daily basis I tend to like ripping Republicans to shreds . . .
Tarheel_Dem
(31,235 posts)And I'll pass on your "twitter feed". I have a hunch it's more of the same. But thanks anyhoo.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Then that shows that you aren't even willing to see how wrong your attacks on me were. My posts at the link I provided prove that they do not correspond with your characterization of me. You and several other posters have displayed a disturbing ignorance and willingness to respond in a way more befitting of Republicans.
At least some people on this thread were able to READ the original post and understand it and realize that it does not reflect well on this board or on the Democratic Party when you falsely attack other posters or make insults to the people of ND by calling them rednecks and saying that because it's a small population they don't matter etc. That certainly doesn't help encourage people in ND to vote for the Democrats or Heidi Heitkamp.
You are certainly not acting like open-minded Democrats if that's the way you behave, and you seem to find it all very amusing. I hope that's not the way you campaign, because it's an attitude that is likely to turn people off.
Anyway, thanks to those on this thread who came to my defense.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,235 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)I believe there is an agenda, and I spelled it out.
I'm plainspoken. I also don't appreciate someone who doesn't know me from a hole in the wall trying to shut me up with a bullshit "you're a sexist" claim.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)Rosanna posted this thread as a way to argue that Romney is doing worse than he should be doing in the state of ND, and you sarcastically imply that she is in love with Rasmussen, who is a conservative pollster. Rasmussen has no motivation to conduct a bad poll in such a non-swing Red state. So what is it that Rosanna did wrong here, I ask?
frazzled
(18,402 posts)CBGLuthier
(12,723 posts)RockyMtnGuy
(83 posts)Jack Sprat
(2,500 posts)you post anything positive for President Obama or the Democratic Party as a whole. Maybe it's just coincidence that I only see your negative forecasts and don't notice your positive ones, but your posts don't ever seem to indicate anything but rain and storms.
blue neen
(12,322 posts)Maybe we are missing something.
you are too polite.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I'm going to be less polite in a moment.
How the heck does this thread translate into me being anti-Democratic or pro-Republican? Did you even read what I wrote?
It's nonsense like this that is often the reason why the Democrats get outmaneuvered by the Republicans.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)that would be entertaining..
MADem
(135,425 posts)Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Perhaps you should review my posting history.
I post dozens of negative things about the Republicans every day.
I have been critical of the fact that Obama and the Democrats have moved to the right since the days of FDR, though. They have allowed the Republicans to tear down much of the New Deal and the social support system.
How is this thread a negative forecast for Obama or the Democrats, btw? It was meant to be a positive. I said that even Rasmussen doesn't seem to have the greatest numbers for Romney.
Jack Sprat
(2,500 posts)I will keep anxiously watching and anticipating.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,235 posts)CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Don't trust Rasmussen Reports.
But looking at this, 15 points is a Republican shift from 2008. (John McCain carried North Dakota by 8.65%.)
At the same time, N.D. should be getting carried by Mitt Romney by over 20 points. That is, if he is unseating Barack Obama to win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. (George W. Bush won N.D., in 2004, by over 27 points!)
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Romney is only at 51% in this poll. So he's not doing the greatest.
And I already mentioned in my post that Rasmussen shouldn't be trusted. (I said they are probably adding on about 5 points to Romney's total).
marmar
(77,081 posts)I don't understand your point.
We're only supposed to look at polling for states the Democrats are expected to win?
The point of looking at polling in states that are not expected to be winnable is to get a comparative barometer of support. That is, if a Republican nominee is not doing as well as he should be in a Republican state, it's relevant because it shows that potentially he may be doing even worse in a swing state. That's why polls such as these are studied by the campaigns. And that was the reason I posted it.
Certainly in the years I've worked in politics, that is always one of the ways we have studied the electoral map as a whole and gotten a sense of what is happening in the various regions.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)OH, FL, NC, VA, IA, CO, NM, NH, MI, WI, PA... These are not guaranteed wins so any polling you can find from these would be useful and interesting... I guess even Rasmussen polls are ok as long as you mention the Raz rule.. +5 to the Dem and -5 to the R.
Cheers!
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)There's not any polling out for any of those states today, is there? That's why they haven't been posted today.
And I mentioned the 'Raz rule' in my opening post!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Knock yourself out posting crap polls from Red states... who knows.. the way things are going for Romney, Obama might win just a few of them!
Peace.
OH, FL, NC, VA, IA, CO, NM, NH, MI, WI, PA... These are not guaranteed wins so any polling you can find from these would be useful and interesting... I guess even Rasmussen polls are ok as long as you mention the Raz rule.. +5 to the Dem and -5 to the R.
Those states, plus Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, Montana, and more.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)I believe that the fact that Romney leads in ND is the only reason why you reacted the way you reacted. In the following link, you comment about a "very worthwhile poll" in the state of California, a state not listed in your list of states "to focus on". http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014130570#post23
California is a pro-Obama no-brainer and Romney will absolutely not win there. So I think you need to be more consistent. Obama won California by 25%, yet ND is not to be focused on despite the fact that McCain won by 9%? What's up with that?
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)There are hardly any people there. Most of the people who do live there are a bit to the right of Darth Vader. It's always been that way there.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Obama did pretty well in ND in 2008. He only finished about 8 or 9 points behind McCain.
ND also elects Democrats to the Senate. We are currently trying to defend the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Kent Conrad, so it's important to keep turnout up as much as possible by not writing off the state as some seem to be doing here.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)in the Senate and House - but I think it unlikely that Obama can take the state. Still, I think that even in red states the Dems ought to campaign as if they thought they could win. There's no other way to make inroads into the prevailing wingnuttery.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I don't think ND is winnable this year, either. I was just saying that since about 45% of the state voted for Obama in 2008, we should not be calling them all a bunch of rednecks, particularly when there is a Senate seat that needs to be won!
The state is not like Utah where Obama is going to lose by 50 points. It's a state that is red, yes, but not deep red.
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)President Barack Obama would have to win a national landslide probably double of what he received in 2008. That's how he could get North Dakota. And if he were to do that, then he could get South Dakota as well. And even more states.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)they think that his wealth will rub off on them - like doing the Megamillions lottery?
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)please Mr. Romney, will you outsource my job and take away my health care coverage, please?
coalition_unwilling
(14,180 posts)Romney is only polling 51% in a state like ND, his candidacy is over and done. Romney has not yet locked down his base and soon it will be too late.
I hope to read more of your work as the summer continues.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I assume this thread is just an isolated incident where a couple of people jumped the gun and assumed because I posted a Rasmussen poll I must be Republican or something. As you said, I made clear in the OP what I was saying, and my posting history should reveal I don't exactly like Romney or the Republicans. As a lawyer though, I'm used to having to prove one's case if necessary, so . . .
. . . if one scrolls down my Twitter feed for the past year, it becomes clear that I'm not exactly fond of the Republicans . . .
http://twitter.com/RosannaLopez101
: )
coalition_unwilling
(14,180 posts)I'll take your word for it. I never doubted your bona fides once reading the thread
MADem
(135,425 posts)politics for an Angeleno, your interest in Obama is quite condensed, recent and frenzied, and all your twitter "friends" are public figures and bloggers--not real, regular people.
I am not sure what you think your twitter feed proves. You say you are a "lawyer from Los Angeles," here, but you post this on your twitter feed:
That doesn't sound like a lawyer from Los Angeles to me. It does sound a bit familiar, though!
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Both of you are acting in an accusatory, conspiratorial fashion towards me, and seem to think you are supposed to investigate other posters in detail here.
My Twitter feed proves I am on the left, not the right, and that I oppose both the Republicans and the Conservatives in Canada. So have you not been proven wrong? That's all this debate is about.
And I didn't realize one couldn't live in another country at some point, or take an interest in politics across several countries in order to have a broader understanding of the world.
MADem
(135,425 posts)Some of it was a bit of a slog, some of it not the sort of thing I see everyday (that NSFW type stuff), but I don't live a very exciting life...!
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I lived in Canada for several years when I was younger and still have Canadian relatives, so yes, I take an interest in Canadian politics as well. Is there something wrong with that? You'll notice that I regularly attack the CONSERVATIVE party of Canada, just as I attack the Republicans every day.
And what sounds 'familiar'?
You seem very suspicious and conspiratorial and are always looking for 'clues' that you think prove something. I'm not sure what.
Bottom line is that my Tweets prove I am on the left of the political perspective, not the right, and it is for suggesting otherwise that you owe me an apology.
Not that I expect one.
MADem
(135,425 posts)Or two of them, or ten of them.
You didn't post a "twit" that says you resided in Canada when you were younger. You said "we live in Canada." You don't write that like a "resident," you write it like a CITIZEN.
Sorry, NO SALE. Don't blame me for noticing what you say. You are the one who said it.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)You are ridiculous.
And how did I make up my Twitter just for the benefit of folks like you on DU? It wasn't just recently created - it goes back to 2011!
Your accusatory and conspiratorial nature is disturbing, and unbecoming for this board.
And no, I didn't say what you said I did about Canada. And why do I have to state things in a particular way that is only acceptable or understandable to you?
My Twitter feed from the beginning demonstrates what I said it did - someone in law, someone on the left, and someone involved with American politics, and yes, someone with an interest in my former country of Canada as well.
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)Does the twitter feed prove something or does it prove nothing?
I agree the "sexist" comment was too much but wtf is the problem here? OP posts a rw poll showing Mittens is doing not as well as he could be and this is showing gloom and doom? "omg, your twitter feed shows all sorts of bad things but your twitter feed proves nothing". W.T.F?
MADem
(135,425 posts)The poster provided the link and asked us to inspect it. I did.
I am not "casting asparagus" I am simply recounting, in condensed format, what I found when I took the poster up on her offer.
The twitter feed shows a number of varied interests. Read it yourself and draw your own conclusions.
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)proves nothing.
I hope you have been around long enough to know what "casting asparagus" means, it is a moranism, a complaint about someone "casting aspargus against our president" during shrub's days.
MADem
(135,425 posts)which wasn't ameliorated by my review of that link. Go on and do what I took the time to do, if you have the inclination.
That's quite different from "casting asparagus" and yes, I do understand that it is a snarkass way to say "casting aspersions." Born at night, I was, but not last night.
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)prove something. It either proves something, or it doesn't. That's all. I don't know that poster, but she seems to have gotten under your skin. Ah well, have a good night, am off to deal with puppy again.
MADem
(135,425 posts)inconsistencies in biography.
There's no law against Canadians posting on this board. We've had and have quite a few--some wonderful, and some not-so-wonderful.
I hope your puppy is well.
a la izquierda
(11,795 posts)That was how I read the OP. No ulterior motives in my reckoning. I don't understand the vitriol.
coalition_unwilling
(14,180 posts)opinions I usually deeply respect and venerate.
No need to do any call-outs.
If Romney's only at 51 in ND, it's over (imho). I'm starting to smell a landslide of 1964 or 1972 proportions building.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Yes, it seems that some people here like to play Sherlock Holmes or Columbo and investigate your entire life.
Even though my Twitter feed proves I am on the left and not the right, now I am being investigated by a couple of posters because I used to live in Canada and I post on Canadian politics as well as American!
Didn't realize that was a crime. Guess some people don't realize the value of studying multiple political systems or understanding the way in which the Republicans are trying to help prop up the Conservative government in Canada as part of their agenda.
demwing
(16,916 posts)the ignore button can save you many a heartburn
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)mousetrap16
(1 post)Rasmussen basically only talks to OUTFOX news and NEO CON Larry Kudlow of CNBC. Truth be told Obama has to do more for his base. I for one was very upset during the Wisconsin recall election, President Obama should have come down to Wisconsin and supported Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. The fact is that Obama stayed in the White House and should have come down there to rally the Unions to come out and support Tom Barrett. This is why there are Democrats who are extremely disappointed in President Obama. That and agreeing with the Fascist Republicans on NDAA, that allows US Soilders to come into your house in the middle of the night and take you to Gitmo to be tortured. Against an opponent like Romney, President Obama should be doing better, but Obama following GW Bush on certain issues is what is causing so many Democrats and Union Members not to come out for him.
Paulie
(8,462 posts)Solid super majorities in the house and senate and THEN see what happens. With all the obstruction he's doing quite well.
Staying home let's the repugs take even MORE of the union power. Enough complaining and help our President and the Democrats already!!!!!
Tarheel_Dem
(31,235 posts)with President Obama? How exactly does that work? You vote against your own pocketbook to spite the president?
That's a pretty tired talking point you got there. Wisconsinites apparently thought the whole recall effort was overreach. According to reports I heard on NPR, many of them felt that the recall was an effort to overturn the will of the voters. They didn't particularly like Walker, but they hated the recall even more. The people who REALLY wanted Walker out would've voted to remove him, with or without a visit from the president.
As for your other talking points? Well.....
steve2470
(37,457 posts)For a while, I'd only post DU-respected polls on the race. I believe that your heart is in the right place, but "new people" (less than 1000 posts or so) are sometimes regarded with skepticism. Just a friendly fyi, YMMV.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)While I understand in theory what you are saying, some of the responses here indicate that some posters have a long way to go in learning how to respond to others and in how to retain support from the public. It's a very emotional, aggressive and illogical way to respond. It's practically foaming at the mouth! I guess because I am a lawyer and look at things analytically, it surprised me.
If one can only post polls that 'support the President' as one person put it, it demonstrates a lack of willingness to analyze all polls to get an accurate picture of the overall race. Nate Silver would have a thing or two to say to some of the folks here. As he says repeatedly, you can't just look at the good polls for your side! And in the case of THIS poll, what's ironic is that I posted it because it was meant to POSITIVE for Obama, by showing Romney isn't even doing as well as he should be in red states. What surprises me is that some people didn't even seem to READ what was written.
I also find it a bit disturbing that when I posted a link to my Twitter which shows hundreds of Tweets over the past year demonstrating where I stand politically, some people refused to even look at it! It's like being convicted and assumed guilty without looking at the proof that shows the person's innocence!
But there are some good posters on this thread who supported me and reprimanded the inappropriate posters, so that's a good sign.
Glad to see the photo of FDR in your profile. He's my favorite President, and if Obama were more like him he would have a bigger lead over Romney! I think some Democrats today forget that he won 4 terms and set in place the entire basis for social security, medicare, unemployment insurance, and the SEC's regulation of Wall Street.
Many of the accomplishments of FDR have been torn down over the past several decades, not only by the Republicans, but by some Democrats, unfortunately. Reading FDR's "Four Freedoms" from January 6, 1941 would go a long way to putting the Democratic Party into a stronger position against the Republicans.
steve2470
(37,457 posts)Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I haven't decided whether I am going to stay here yet, though. I'm glad there are some positive and intelligent posters here like yourself, but there appear to be not just one, but several very accusatory and conspiratorially-minded people who not only don't acknowledge when they are wrong, but take to 'investigating' someone and then slapping each other on the back like a group of jocks when they think the've 'discovered' something.
Even though I posted a link to my Twitter which has over 1,000 posts going back to 2011 that demonstrate my involvement and support of left-wing politics and condemnation of the right, rather than acknowledging that they had misjudged my political leanings (eg. that I'm secretly a Republican etc.), a couple of posters above said that, 1) my Twitter could be a fake, (even though it goes back well over a year and obviously wasn't just created for the benefit of DU), 2) that because I follow a lot of bloggers and politicians and not a lot of personal friends that makes me suspicious, and 3) because I also follow Canadian politics in a country where I have lived and oppose the Conservative party there, that there is something suspicious about that, too.
Very bizarre, and not what I was expecting here.
And all because I posted a Rasmussen poll on North Dakota that was meant to be good news for Obama since it shows Romney isn't doing that well there! If this is an ordinary day around here, and there are lots more of these folks, I don't know if it's my kind of place.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,235 posts)Marzupialis
(398 posts)There are lots of people here who wish the best for the country and are Democrats till death; but those same people are blinded by their bias. 84% of respondents to a DU poll asking whether Walker would be recalled in Wisconsin thought he would be recalled. Only 15% (including me) thought otherwise, since all polls had him ahead.
You should continue to separate party preference from logic. the "Raz rule" is BS, by the way. In one election (a congressional election, not presidential) Rasmussen had a 4% pro-Republican bias. This has not occured in Presidential elecitons for this pollster since 2000 when he (Raz) performed poorly in favor of Gore.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002762660
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Lyndon Johnson vs Barry Goldwater.
I suspect that trend will continue irrespective of this now infamous Rasmussen poll thanks to Ms Lopez.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I think we've established that the state is unlikely to vote for Obama.
The reason some of us are watching the Presidential numbers is to get a sense of what may happen in the Senate race there.
If the ND seat goes Republican, it could be what makes Mitch McConnell the new Senate Majority Leader. Would you like that to happen, or would you like to help Heidi Heitkamp get as many Democrats out to vote as possible?
http://www.rttnews.com/1922645/Campaign-Spotlight-GOP-Poised-To-Pick-Up-N-D-Senate-Seat.aspx?type=pap&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=sitemap
http://www.valleynewslive.com/story/19025666/nd-mn-candidates-raising-huge-
http://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-and-regional/rick-berg-reports-campaign-fundraising/article_d76e9e02-cd6d-11e1-9939-0019bb2963f4.html
DCBob
(24,689 posts)It means there will be no coattails for Democrats as is typical in ND and other Red states. In fact close association to the President could be a liability.
This poll means nothing we didnt already know and it means even less being a Rasmussen poll.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Well, as you pointed out above, since it's Rasmussen, Obama is unlikely to be as many as 15 points down. Which is what I said in my original post. : )
But I agree that Heidi Heitkamp will probably want to run her own Senate campaign largely distinct from that of the President.
Btw, remember that until 2008, Virginia had not voted Democratic since LBJ in 1964. So there may come a day down the road where ND is winnable for a Democrat if the right conditions are present and if the nominee resonates in the state.
Remember, Bill Clinton managed to win Montana in 1992 (and almost in 1996), partially because of the Perot vote, but nevertheless a win.
And Clinton won Arizona in 1996. : )
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Give it up Rosanna.. you are really digging deep now.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I'm not really digging for anything. I'm just having some fun with you since you took this thread so far away from its original purpose, and into a long discussion I never anticipated.
You misunderstood its objective, so I thought I would continue the discussion by bringing up some facts to ground it in a greater historical context.
Btw, ND is comparable to VA in some ways - you are mistaken to say otherwise. Bottom line is that VA was considered an unwinnable state until just a few years ago and had not voted Democratic in decades. So they are comparable in that sense. I'm not saying they are identical, but nor can you prove that they have nothing in common!
You have brought out my lawyerly, competitive side, and if I were to meet you in person, I could probably beat you in a debate . . .
Or as the English translation of a Spanish expression says:
"Where you're going, I've already walked there, sat down, had a soda and walked back!"
: )
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I thought you might be an actress or singer with the cool nick "RLo".
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Are you a multiple personality or something??
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I'm Queen Elizabeth I - that's why I use "we". : )
We, as in the people/public/Democratic supporters, and others on this board.
We know what you are saying.
As 'Hippo_Tron' agreed above, we're interested in how the Democrats are polling in the state as a barometer of the Senate race.
Entiende usted?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)MindMover
(5,016 posts)snot
(10,530 posts)Quantess
(27,630 posts)Moorhead is the cool side of town. Fargo has no cafe's open on a Sunday morning, because it's god's day, or something. Seriously, I had to cross the river to Moorhead to get coffee on Sunday.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Did they ever find the money buried in the snow?
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Speaking of actors, both Josh Duhamel and Kellan Lutz come from North Dakota.
So at least the state produces some good-looking men . . .
DCBob
(24,689 posts)If I were a North Dakoter I wil send you a 1-finger salute.
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)from imdb.com None of the movie scenes, either exterior or interior, were actually filmed in Fargo. The bar exterior shown at the beginning of the movie is located in Northeast Minneapolis.
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)Quantess
(27,630 posts)Pretty impressive. I visited that museum.
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)Bush had 63% in 2004.
Mittens is only at 51% and likely to drop.
And you're right. According to the always-reliable Nate Silver, Rasmussen tends to overstate Republican strength by 3-4 percentage points. So Mitt doesn't even have a majority in one of the reddest presidential states.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He keeps it accurate in states that dont matter to keep his ratings up. ND doesnt matter.. its going to be red regardless so Raz probably is reporting real numbers... imo.
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)I'm not terribly concerned with losing North Dakota and its pivotal three (count 'em, THREE) electoral votes.
But it would be funny as hell if Obama won there.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)That would be the icing on victory cake indeed!
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)it would save us the trouble of having to invade them.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Glad to see you got the purpose of the thread!
Not sure why Bob didn't, but we'll try to bring him around.
mahina
(17,669 posts)The 'ignore' button is your friend. Saved me a few grey hairs.
Thanks for the info. I check electoral-vote.com every day.
Mahalo.
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)I understand that, don't know you elsewhere on Du but understand the point of this post.
I'd expect Romney to be doing better in ND and if he's only up by 15, that seems really good for Obama for the rest of the country.
fishwax
(29,149 posts)Obama isn't going to win there, but even so, Romney's support does not bode well for the GOP.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)(Specific post alerted on was OP)
ALERTER'S COMMENTS:
The personal attacks on this thread are offensive. DCBob and MADem are insulting and offensive beyond belief. Lock or trash this thread.
You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Sat Jul 14, 2012, 10:53 PM, and the Jury voted 1-5 to LEAVE IT.
Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: If you have an issue like that, contact Admin. Hosts are not empowered to lock a thread unless it doesn't meet SOP (which this thread does) and juries can only hide individual posts that do not adhere to community standards (which this OP post does). Leave it.
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: There nothing wrong with the original post. If someone wants to flag individual responses within the thread, that's one thing. But flag the offenders, not the entire thread.
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT and said: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given
Tarheel_Dem
(31,235 posts)cbrer
(1,831 posts)Look here
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
Or here
http://www.sodahead.com/united-states/so-you-guys-think-the-rasmussen-polls-are-objective-and-accurate/question-581179/
Don't get me wrong. NO ONE has a crystal ball. But trend analysis and public opinion polls only get a fraction of a fraction of available results. And question structure, and interpretations get slanted as a matter of course.
And anyways, we know what's right and wrong.
And how to contribute to the upcoming battle.
No matter what some pin headed pundit has to say.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)What the results be like in November? significantly different from Romney +15%?
cbrer
(1,831 posts)But again, no one has a crystal ball. Calling ND red is a safe bet simply tracking past trends. No input from polls necessary.
While underlining the necessity of promoting a progressive agenda, the tracking of trends and polls in general provides more benefit to their owners than to the population.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)So if I don't misunderstand, this poll accurately reflects the situation in ND, but you criticize Rasmussen polls any way? Why do so in this context?
cbrer
(1,831 posts)To some of the posts in this thread. Placing undue importance on polls in general (rasmussen being a poor example), can lead one to wrong, or simply irrelevant conclusions. Heck, I can point to past trends, ask a few people some leading questions, and have a "poll". We aren't going to change the minds of people who place stock in such things, but this doesn't alleviate the necessity of working our agenda.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)Are we only allowed to post polls from certain states? What a bunch a nastiness.
madrchsod
(58,162 posts)we have lost long time members or others who post infrequently. i also do not remember this forum was for citizens of the usa only. i guess i forget to read the fine print.
MADem
(135,425 posts)That's not the issue, here.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)He's ahead in Mississippi, too. I don't think anyone gives a damn because neither state has more that 6 electoral votes. I live in MS, and I don't give a damn that Romney is leading here, why should you give a damn if you live in ND?