It seems that South Carolina, ...

[1StrongBlackMan]

the early primary state test market (i.e., outside of the racially homogenous zone) isn't showing much/any tightening, or surge.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html#polls

[msongs]

1. top 2 are democrats with the independent in 3rd nt

[1StrongBlackMan]

3. Well ... I guess that is what one can take from the SC polling ...

I, on the other hand, choose to look at the numbers ... relative to one another.

[BooScout]

2. I suspect....

We will see a lot more polls like this one as the primaries move out of the white liberal enclaves.

[1StrongBlackMan]

4. I suspect you are correct ...

much to the dismay of DU.

While I am disappointed with O'Malley's showing, I think it is a direct reflection of his lack of coverage (which is the campaign's fault). I, further, think that O'Malley's numbers will improve the day of/after the Democratic debates, when the media will be forced to acknowledge his candidacy.

[BooScout]

7. I think....

O'Malley will be a contender........but not in this election cycle. I would keep my eye on him for 2024.

[1StrongBlackMan]

13. I want Martin now ...

I see him as the best of Bernie and HRC ... He is, clearly, a strong progressive candidate with the "can do"/"has done" chops (look at his plans); but, without the right and left's HRC, "I hate her" vibe.

[seabeyond]

22. i agree. though the way he has doggedly worked to get the press, i gotta ask...

how you think he has lacked in campaign to put self out there.

i think this is where an early debate would serve him well.

everyone i have turned on to omalley really likes the man. everyone, say that if it were not for their candidate, they would be on omalley. whether clinton or sanders.

i agree. that is exactly how i see omalley. the best of both.

i am not a fan of his speaking, but hopefully like obama it smooths out. we all think obama as a great speaker. i can remember in '08 his uh, drove uh, me around uh, the looney, uh, bin. lol. i would tell hubby, his handlers has got to knock that uh, out of him.

i think omalley stand above both candidates in getting things done. i think that is what we need the most. that is why i really really would like to see omalley get in there.

[1StrongBlackMan]

24. I agree ... an early debate would serve O'Malley very well ...

but the debate schedule is the debate schedule. There is no benefit in playing "If only" games.

[seabeyond]

26. the debate schedule is the debate schedule.

yes. and we have never seen someone so low in the polls, in oct, pull out a victory. ever. right?

[1StrongBlackMan]

30. Actually, I don't think wwe have ...

but as an O'Malley supporter, I'm not really concerned.

[StevieM]

14. I like O'Malley a lot, and have long thought that he may be a future president. But the timing

Last edited Wed Aug 26, 2015, 12:32 PM - Edit history (1)

may be different than you are forcasting.

If Hillary wins the nomination, which I believe she will, then I think the two most likely running mates for her are O'Malley and Julian Castro.

If she picks O'Malley, and then wins the presidency, then O'Malley is the likely nominee in 2024 regardless of whether she wins re-election. Of course, there are no guarantees of that. Then again, there is no guarantee that Hillary runs for a second term, in which case O'Malley could run in 2020.

If she picks Castro, or someone else, then they are the front runner for the 2024 Democratic nomination, assuming Hillary and her running mate win the upcoming GE.

If Hillary loses the 2016 GE then Elizabeth Warren is the early favorite to win the Democratic nomination for 2020. If she picks O'Malley as her running mate, and then wins the presidency, then O'Malley would be the likely nominee in 2028.

[1StrongBlackMan]

28. If HRC wins the Democratic nomination ...

Last edited Wed Aug 26, 2015, 11:09 AM - Edit history (1)

I would be surprised if Castro was not her running mate ... he fits demographically and geographically. But I think O'Malley would be the better pick, functionally ... especially, if HRC is willing to allow the VP to do more than just be a ceremonial president-in-waiting.

I completely agree with the rest of your post. As a partisan Democrat, it does my soul good to see three strong candidates for the Democratic nomination ... But it is better to see Democrats with a particularly strong bench in the near term.

[seabeyond]

31. totally agree here too. now, someone mentioned clinton/warren. i have never considered.

and i gotta tell you, a whole lot of excited interest start flooding my brain, lol. as a woman? that would be too much fun and two very strong vocal women at that.

[1StrongBlackMan]

36. I like Warren right where she is ...

in the Senate ... Raising hell.

[LondonReign2]

32. "Liberal enclaves"

Your Third Way slip is showing. Oh, those damn liberals, standing up for all the things we are against!

[BooScout]

34. meme much?

[LondonReign2]

35. Pissing on liberals is quite a choice for a self-proclaimed Democrat

[1StrongBlackMan]

37. That's just crazy, huh? ...

What are New Hampshire and Vermont, if not white liberal enclaves?

I have said from the start, that starting their campaign in areas with your most favorable/receptive demographics was a smart move by the Bernie camp. But, I still don't understand why acknowledging that fact is so threatening to some DUers.

[1StrongBlackMan]

5. I am, now, changing my prediction ...

I have predicted that this contest would be over shortly after March 1 (Super Tuesday) ... March 15th at the latest. After looking at the numbers, I, now, predict it will all be over except for the shouting on February 28th.

[virtualobserver]

18. A Biden entry doesn't change your thinking?

[1StrongBlackMan]

19. Not really ..

Because I am not convinced that he will enter the race.

[Vattel]

6. I hope that changes. I love Sanders and I want South Carolina to love him too.

[doxyluv13]

8. Interesting but, these numbers go back to June...

….and the latest info seems to be from Aug. 3, way before Sanders visited the South. June was a decade ago as far as this race has been going.

Really telling would be to compare these to a decent poll taken after his visit. That would show if he's getting any traction...

[morningfog]

9. It seems that SC is not being polled frequently.

No way to tell if it had or had not tightened when no recent polling has been done.

[GitRDun]

10. DU's premature Bernie euphoria is definitely not warranted

He has a lot of work to do to build a broader coalition of voters.

It can be done, but his campaign needs to be aggressive if it expects to have its message infiltrate and resonate with the broader Democratic tent.

[1StrongBlackMan]

12. True. n/t

[LondonReign2]

33. I would agree he has tons of work to do

He started out as a far, far outsider with little money or organization. I'd say Hillary is still the prohibitive favorite given her early advantages, but I'm hopeful Bernie can make a race of it.

[JI7]

11. it will be difficult to win minority votes against clinton

While Obama ended up winning the black vote she still got a decent amount in 2008. And hispanics stayed with her through most of the primary even though many of them liked obama (which is why they easily supported him once he became the nominee).

[MaggieD]

15. I agree

I think that will be his downfall.

[Gothmog]

17. I agree

[Gothmog]

16. I do not expect Sanders to break 15% in Texas

[seabeyond]

23. really? my area of texas is strong sanders, in college youths. but i will be interested

getting into it to see how the handful of ann richards texans feel.

wendy davis is sanders.

i am panhandle so it is the more conservative dem

i can see like austin and houston going clinton. but you really see him getting os little support in texas? i can see him getting the fringe repugs.... non religious, non fundie republican and libertarian. up the corridor to colorado springs.

[jfern]

20. Kind of a lack of good polls there

[1StrongBlackMan]

21. Lack of good polls? ...

[morningfog]

27. Lack of recent polls is I believe what they meant.

And there is a lack of recent polling there.

[1StrongBlackMan]

29. Oh. Okay. n/t

[Armstead]

25. One more reason to get the damn debates going

I have no idea whether comparative exposure would help Clinton, Sanders or O'Malley more (okay or Chaffee or Webb), or if it would be a wash. But they all deserve to AT LEAST have a chance to enter the ring.

Damn IT All voters deserve to see them together, see them debate and have a chance to see and hear Bernie Who? and Martin Who? and the others too.

The longer the widespread perception of Clinton is the only "real" candidate goes on, and the more other candidates are kept off in the corner as far as media and political attention goes, the more this will become embedded.

Of course there's the current wild card of Biden, but in or out, the debates should be soon and more.

[1StrongBlackMan]

38. I agree ...

I would love to see Democratic debates, this month or early September ... But, again, the debate schedule is the debate schedule. It is to no benefit to play the "If only ..." game.

I believe that O'Malley has the most to gain from the debate exposure. I suspect that neither, Bernie nor HRC supporters will EVER be moved towards the opposing HRC/Bernie camp; but, both, Bernie and HRC supporters can be moved to the O'Malley camp.

But, sadly, that will only happen if Bernie and/or HRC have/has a bad debate experience AND O'Malley does well.

[Armstead]

39. Apart from die hard partisans, I think there's a lot of lukewarm voters out there

They are still open minded.

They've either gravitated to Clinton as the default candidate but not enthusiastically, or Sanders as the most visible alternative but are skeptical about him...... And a lot just don't know who O'Malley is.

I think it's quite possible that Sanders and/or OMalley could pick up a lot of those lukewarm voters if they did well in debate, and increase their momentum.

(It could also work in reverse if they screw up or Clinton is spectacular.)