Convention Delegations Matter - They Matter a Lot

[MineralMan]

Here's a rundown of how many delegates from early (February) primary/caucus states will go to the Democratic National Convention in 2016. That's followed with delegate counts from some other states, for comparison purposes. To win the nomination, a candidate will have to muster 2242 votes to get a majority from the 4483 total number of delegates. The February primaries and caucuses represent a relatively small number of delegates. Winning in those states is more of a psychological victory than a predictor of the actual nominee. The link at the end of this post is a great resource for digging into each state's primaries or caucuses and learning about primaries and national conventions. Winning the nomination will mean a strong focus on the states with the most delegates at stake. It's not easy, by any means.

Iowa - 54 Delegates
New Hampshire - 32 Delegates
Nevada - 39 Delegates
South Carolina - 57 Delegates

Here are the March 1 Primaries/Caucuses

Alabama - 58 Delegates
Arkansas - 37 Delegates
Colorado caucuses - 77 Delegates
Georgia - 112 Delegates
Massachusetts - 121 Delegates
Minnesota caucuses - 94 Delegates
North Carolina - 120 Delegates
Oklahoma - 42 Delegates
Tennessee - 58 Delegates
Texas - 237 Delegates
Vermont - 23 Delegates
Virginia - 112 Delegates

Other Big Player States

California - 476 Delegates
New York - 277 Delegates
Ohio - 165 Delegates
Pennsylvania - 181 Delegates
Michigan - 152 Delegates
Florida - 238 Delegates
Illinois - 190 Delegates
New Jersey - 126 Delegates

Data from http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16

[Gothmog]

1. Yes delegates matter

In many of these states a candidate will not be awarded any delegates unless he gets at least 15% of the vote. I am considering trying out for a delegate slot. The competition is tough and I may not make it.

[MineralMan]

2. I won't even try. I couldn't afford to go.

I might take a stab at being a delegate to the MN state convention, though.

[Gothmog]

4. It is expensive

It helps that I have been working inside my county party and Senate District organization for a long time.

[MineralMan]

6. I'm a relative newcomer to Minnesota.

I've only been here since 2004. I'm active in the local DFL party organization, but so are a lot of others who have way more visibility than I do. I can probably get to the state convention as a delegate or at least an alternate, but the national convention is not possible, even if I could afford it. Those positions go to people who have invested many years to the party organization and have become leaders in it at at least the Senate District level. Frankly, they've earned their delegate seats.

[leftofcool]

3. Will you let us know if you get a slot?

I hope you do. That would be exciting.

[Gothmog]

5. I will not know until the Texas State Democratic convention in June

[ismnotwasm]

7. Thank you

I love informational posts like this. Very interesting and helpful.

I think a lot of us like to 'talk politics' without truly understanding what we are saying. Learning about processes is always a good thing

[MineralMan]

8. My pleasure. I love digging into how this all works in reality.

The candidates and their campaign directors understand all of this very well. The Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses will be the deciding factor, really. Once those are over, who the nominee will be will be pretty darned clear. The campaigns will count up their delegates and make a decision about whether continuing is worthwhile.

Lots of people are focusing on the NH and IA primary races. From a psychological point of view, they have some importance, but they have too few delegates to really matter. Right now, Senator Sanders is leading in the NH polls, but Hillary Clinton is holding a very strong majority in IA.

Polling hasn't really begun in the big states yet, although it will soon. Even if Sanders wins in NH, that's just one state. On March 1, when the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses are held, we'll have the answer, I believe.

[ismnotwasm]

9. That is what people I'm to listening to say

I admire enthusiasm for any Dem candidate, but there are quite a few months ahead and tons of work to be done.

BTW--I shared that link on Facebook, generally I stay out of politics there, but not everyone does

[MineralMan]

10. It's a great link for people who actually follow politics.

[MineralMan]

11. To Put It Another Way -

The four February primaries/caucuses total just 182 delegates at the convention. As anyone can see, California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois each sends more than that many delegates. Each. Look at the primary polling in those states. In fact, look at the four February states. Only one shows a lead for Senator Sanders: New Hampshire. The other three show Clinton with a strong lead that hasn't really changed recently.

New Hampshire's 32 delegates won't be very decisive, really. Despite nice turnouts for Bernie at rallies, it's not rallies that produce convention delegates.