New poll swing states--Obama up in CO, FL, OH, PA, VA by 3-9 points

[WI_DEM]

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group on behalf of Priorities USA Action. The following memo summarizes
the findings of five statewide polls consisting of over 3,800 total interviews with likely voters between
June 25 and July 3, 2012.

Voters in swing states view Romney’s main selling point – his business experience –
negatively:

37% of voters say that Romney’s business experience at Bain Capital make them LESS likely to vote for him. Just 27% say it makes them MORE likely to vote for him.
58% of swing state voters now say it is true that as a businessman, Romney's priority was making millions for himself and his investors, regardless of the impact on jobs and the employees :

Colorado Obama leads 49-42
Florida Obama leads 48-44
Ohio Obama leads 48-41
Pennsylvania Obama leads 49-40
Virginia Obama leads 46-43

http://www.prioritiesusaaction.org/blog/2012-07-mitt-romneys-central-qualification-becomes-a-signifi

[Proud Liberal Dem]

1. Looking very good so far!

Virginia is the closest but the rest look like solid leads so far! Let's hope it continues. It seems like the Bain ads are having the desired effect in terms of turning the perception of Romney's main "selling points" into a negative. Now, President Obama just needs to get to the conventions and debates without any major catastrophes- economic or otherwise- and deliver the final blow(s)!

[WI_DEM]

2. PPP had Obama up by 8 yesterday in a poll of VA

[Proud Liberal Dem]

6. Polls, polls

Whatever the polls are state-by-state, he's looking to be in good shape at the moment.

[otohara]

3. CO Will Stay Blue

unless the SOS has something to do with it.

He's at it again, wants DHS to verify a list of thousands of voters.

[Hawaii Hiker]

10. CO has Democratic governor, so there should be no voter suppression bull-shit

or so i would hope...

[otohara]

16. Oh We Have A Dem Senate Too - But That's Not Stopping

The Senate has prevented him from the Voter ID law, but Gessler is relentless.

http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_21048163/suthers-asks-homeland-security-chief-verify-voters-citizenship

[Dawgs]

4. Right now, the states I'm focusing on are OH, VA, MI, and WI.

He has never been down in Colorado, so I'm counting that one as a win.

[demwing]

5. Why is Pennsylvania a swing state?

Last edited Wed Jul 11, 2012, 11:25 AM - Edit history (1)

they haven't voted Red in a Presidential election since 1988, and RCP's average has Obama up by nearly 8 points.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. I don't think it really is

but with efforts to disenfranchise a lot of people, we should keep an eye on it IMHO. Wasn't there some alarmist piece the other day how the GOP's voter disenfranchisement efforts might possibly be enough to "swing" the state to the GOP based on President Obama's margin of victory in 2008? Those comments made by that one Republican state legislator should be enough IMHO to get the DOJ poking around in Pennsylvania like they're doing in Florida.

[WI_DEM]

8. the media always wants to consider PA a swing state

If Obama loses it, it will only be because of the new voter ID law.

[Marzupialis]

9. This is a Democratic polling firm

Not saying it's inaccurate, just giving readers information they would want to know of a Republican polling firm conducted a poll.

I am on record denouncing "We Ask America" as a pro-Republican firm with a conflict of interest, so let me keep it consistent.

http://www.hartresearch.com/about/political.html

[WI_DEM]

11. that is correct.

they also call PPP a democratic pollster, though it is also one of the most accurate in the polling industry.

[Marzupialis]

12. I've only found one accuracy rating for this pollster

Here's Garin Hart Yang compared to other pollsters (top is most accurate, bottom is least) according to Nate Silver's analysis written in 2010:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rating_pollster_accuracy_predi.php?nr=1

[DCBob]

14. The dishonest GOPer firms know how to play the ratings game..

They skew their results towards the Rethug candidate until just before the election then they bring it back closer to reality. This way they can get better ratings since more recent polls are weighted higher.

[WI_DEM]

15. lovely thanks.

[DCBob]

13. Except that most of us know Rethug polling outfits have a tendency to distort the data.

Its a GOP core tactic... just like they do with controlling many of the news stations.