2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumShocking Michigan Poll: Trump 40%, Clinton 39%
Released today: Trump up 1, Rubio up 9, Jeb up 1.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell_Poll_MI_Press_Release_8-20-15_Rubio_Prez_Final.pdf
Michigan is a must win state for Democrats if we want to hold onto the White House. How in the world is Trump ahead by a point in what should be solid blue territory?
I'm not sure if its because Clinton is such a bad candidate or if its because people actually think Trump should be president? That seems insane.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)is looking better and better.
SonderWoman
(1,169 posts)DURHAM D
(32,611 posts)Mitchell is a Republican pollster and has a reputation for polling until he gets the results he wants.
totodeinhere
(13,059 posts)it in about the middle of the pack. When factoring in their 3.5% pro-Republican bias that still leaves Trump vs Clinton within the statistical margin of error in Michigan.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/
Juicy_Bellows
(2,427 posts)Last edited Fri Aug 21, 2015, 05:01 PM - Edit history (1)
That probably plays a role somewhat and I don't see mention of Sanders, was he included?
bunnies
(15,859 posts)What. The. Fuck.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)I would be interested in seeing how he would do in these match-ups. P.S. I believe Mitchell doesn't have a good reputation and it would be good to see the internals.
NYCButterfinger
(755 posts)Trump plays beautifully there. Reagan Democrats, Macomb County, Farmington Hills. It's gonna be contested. Period. Former Gov. Jennifer Granholm can help there as a surrogate.
Omg this is mind blowing Dems have won since 92 this state !! Wtf
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)phleshdef
(11,936 posts)Obama carried the state by almost 10 points.
538 rates them as a C, which isn't good.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)Mitchell showed Obama up 5 in Michigan in line with what the average was:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html#polls
C is pretty Middle of the pack as far as pollsters Nate rates.
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)"Middle of the pack" is terrible. And their final poll showed Obama winning by nearly half of what we actually won by.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)phleshdef
(11,936 posts)I'm a Bernie supporter anyway but I don't take any general election poll before labor day, 2016, with much seriousness.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)phleshdef
(11,936 posts)CreekDog
(46,192 posts)not only that, in regards to 2012, the bad pollsters frequently put out bogus polls, then near the election, put out more plausible numbers so that they don't look like outliers.
pretty obvious game.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)which is the kind of record this pollster has.
First news stories, news channels, and polls; all no longer the objective things they're supposed to be, but skewed tools for partisans. Arghhh
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)And according to the release, Republicans are dominating every single area in Michigan outside of Detroit (They're even dominating Wayne County outside Detroit proper).
Shame they haven't release questions or sample demographics, because this implies a massive shift.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)They had Mittens ahead in Michigan until the last week when they had Obama ahead by only half of his final 10 point margin.