2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNo, Hillary Clinton is not spiraling downward
By Paul Waldman August 17 at 12:25 PM
Theres no question which is the more interesting and dynamic primary campaign right now, which inevitably leads reporters covering the other one to search for something new to write about. And in a race where theres an obvious (if not quite certain) nominee, there will always come a point at which the press will decide that that candidate is spiraling downward, the cloak of inevitability is torn and tattered, the campaign is in crisis, the whispering from party loyalists is growing louder, and the scramble is on to find an alternative before the fall occurs.
This is the moment we have come to with Hillary Clinton.
First there was the fevered speculation about Vice President Biden running against her, based on second-hand reports that Biden has had conversations about the possibility of running. Im sure that Biden thinks about being president about as often as he brushes his teeth, but that doesnt mean theres an actual candidacy in the offing. But it isnt just him. ABC News reports that a one-time high-ranking political adviser to Al Gore tells ABC News that a group of friends and former aides are having a soft conversation about the possibility that Gore run for president in 2016. Gore himself is not interested, but who cares? People keep asking John Kerry if hes going to jump into the race, no matter how many times he says no. Time magazine says Democrats are headed for a repeat of the 1968 election, with Clinton cast as Lyndon Johnson and her email controversy offered as a parallel to the Vietnam War (pretty much the same magnitude, right?).
Guess what: you put two or three former staffers to just about any major politician in a room, and theyll have a soft conversation about how he really ought to run for president. If theres one thing that stories like these should never be based on, its the mere fact that people who used to work for a particular politician would like that politician to run. Longtime political figures like Gore and Biden trail behind them a tribe of former staffers, advisers, fundraisers and the like, all of whom have entertained fantasies about either a job in the West Wing or at least a heady proximity to the most powerful person on earth. If you called up any of them, you could extract a quote that would make it sound like maybe, just maybe their guy might get in the race.
So right now theres virtually no evidence that the Democratic field is going to expand beyond the current five candidates. And what about the idea that Clinton is in a drastic decline? Bernie Sanders has generated plenty of interest and some support, but that doesnt necessarily mean Democrats are rejecting Clinton; if theres any evidence that Sanders supporters wont be perfectly happy to back her if and when shes the nominee, I havent seen it.
more
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/08/17/no-hillary-clinton-is-not-spiraling-downward/?
Picking Dem
(106 posts)On her way down.
BooScout
(10,406 posts)4139
(1,893 posts)Very good chance that will end the slide and she will plateau... No debates to mid-October would have been fine if Bernie hadn't taken off; now no debates are hurting her.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Of states. I am not worried about Iowa or NH since the winners there have not gone on to winning the nomination.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Go look at who won in 2008, on both sides
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)I must have been thinking of this:
"I come tonight with a very, very full heart, and I want especially to thank New Hampshire," Clinton told a jubliant crowd in Manchester. "Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice.
"I felt like we all spoke from our hearts, and Im so glad that you responded. Now together lets give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me."
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/22551718/ns/politics-decision_08/t/stunner-nh-clinton-defeats-obama/#.VdJ2YbJViko
Of course in '04 Kerry won, in '00 Gore won, in '88 Dukakis won, in '76 Carter won and in '60 Kennedy won (I skipped any incumbent who won since that isn't a fair comparison) and that is just our party.
My original point stands. Sometimes the winner of the NH primary is the nominee.
frazzled
(18,402 posts)Clinton did (39% to 36%).
So 2008 doesn't really stand as a counterexample.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)and I'm going with Bernie.
Thank you for your support.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)We need to see a couple debates before this gets real.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)There's a huge difference between being willing to do something and being happy to do it.